【英语中国】中国股市静待反弹信号

For a supposed beacon of global economic hope, China sure has some gloomy stock market investors.

Worried that Beijing's policy tightening will slow the economy too much, investors have pushed the Shanghai Composite down 27% this year.

The selling means that Chinese stock valuations, in the past derided as crazily optimistic, are at remarkably sober levels.

Stocks traded in Shanghai are valued at 12.5 times 12-month forward earnings, according to Macquarie Research. That's some 30% below their long-run average and below the Standard & Poor's 500. Moreover, shares of companies listed both there and in Hong Kong now trade at the same price level, on average. For the past four years Shanghai's typically fetched a noticeable premium.

So a consensus is forming: Now is a good time to buy Chinese stocks. Maybe, but even if a bottom is near, the precise trigger for a sustained upswing remains elusive.

In China, this will ultimately have to come from Beijing. Rhetoric from Chinese policymakers about China's economic outlook remains cautious, but the government also wants to ensure it has tamed a potential bubble in the property market.

A clear return to stimulative policy mode may have to wait until the end of this year, even though many economists are downgrading expectations for economic growth in 2010.

When such a trigger does appear, the shift of funds back into stocks could be powerful. Investors have few options over where to invest.

Removing the policy overhang would draw attention to other supportive factors. A large majority of listed Chinese companies have issued positive profit guidance for the first half of this year, and there's evidence fund managers stopped reducing their equity holdings in June, says Peter Alexander at investment consultancy Z-Ben Advisors.

Still, not selling isn't the same as buying. And there's no sign that retail investors, who are critical to the mainland stock market, are rushing to open new accounts.

They are still waiting for the gun to be fired by Beijing. That wait could stretch for a while yet.

作为假想中的全球经济的希望灯塔，中国惨淡的股市中肯定还有一些投资者。

Reuters周二，一名中国投资者在安徽合肥股票交易电子显示板前。由于担心北京方面的紧缩政策将使经济过度放缓，投资者今年已将上证综指推低了27%。

过去人们嘲笑市场对于中国股票估值过于乐观，目前的卖盘意味着它们的估值处于非常合理的水平。

根据麦格理研究（Macquarie Research）数据，上海证交所股票交易价是12个月预估未来获利的12.5倍，较它们的长期均值低约30%，并低于标准普尔500指数。另外，同时在上海和香港股市上市的股票目前平均以相同价格交易，而在过去四年中，在上海证交所交易的股票通常溢价较高。

所以人们达成了共识，即目前是买入中国股票的良机。情况可能是这样，但即使正在接近底部，能带动持续升势的那个导火索仍是难以捉摸。

在中国，导火索最终将来自北京方面。中国决策者关于中国经济前景的言论仍较谨慎，但政府也希望确保其已控制住了地产市场的潜在泡沫。

尽管许多经济学家正在降低对2010年经济成长的预期，但明显重启经济刺激政策可能还要等到今年年底。

当这样的导火索出现时，回流到股市的资金将是巨大的。投资者的投资选择较少。

投资咨询机构Z-Ben Advisors的亚历山大（Peter Alexander）说，取消刺激政策将使人们关注其他支持性因素。大量中国上市企业已发出今年上半年的获利预估，而且有证据显示基金经理于6月停止了减持股票的操作。

但不抛售并不等于买进，没有迹象显示对于中国大陆股市至关重要的散户正在忙于开立新的户头。

他们还在等待北京方面打响战斗的枪声，不过等待还要持续一段时间。