【英语中国】温家宝：中国宏观调控面临两难

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said Sunday the country's economic policies 'face increasing dilemmas' because the impact of the global financial crisis is more serious than expected, but he reiterated that China won't hold back steps to restructure the economy for growth.

The remarks were made after two purchasing managers' indexes issued last week showed China's manufacturing economy slowed in June and after China on Friday revised upward its gross domestic product growth for 2009. The GDP revision means China's year-to-year growth will have a higher comparison base for the second and following quarters, so the growth may be lower than economists' expectations.

Despite the widely expected slowdown, Mr. Wen reiterated that China will continue its economic policies but increase their flexibility, to 'solve current significant and urgent problems' while 'laying foundations for stable and relatively fast economic growth of 2011 and in a longer term.' He was speaking at a economic forum held Saturday in the central Chinese city of Changsha, according to a statement posted on the central government's website.

'China's current economic situation is sound, but the domestic and global economic environment is extremely complicated,' Mr. Wen said. He said Beijing will try to maintain relatively fast economic development while managing inflation.

The statistics bureau on Friday revised upward economic growth for 2009 to 9.1% from 8.7%. The revision was due to higher contributions from secondary and tertiary industries. Secondary industries include the mining, manufacturing and power sectors; tertiary industries cover services. Primary industries are farming, forestry and fishing.

In 2008, China's economy expanded 9.6%.

The bureau said China's nominal GDP, evaluated at current market prices without adjustment for inflation, reached 34 trillion yuan ($5.02 trillion) in 2009. At last year's average exchange rate, China remained the world's third-largest economy, behind Japan with a 2009 GDP of just over $5 trillion.

Fast-growing China is expected to surpass Japan as the world's second-largest national economy after the U.S.-in terms of annual output measured in U.S. dollars at market exchange rates-but it will likely have to wait until the end of 2010 to pass that milestone.

Other ways of ranking economies produce different results. In terms of purchasing-power parity, China has been the second-largest economy for a long time. And if the European Union is counted as a single economy, it is the world's largest, pushing the U.S. to second place.

China is due to release its second-quarter GDP data July 15. Some economists expected the growth slowed to just over 10% from the first quarter's 11.9% year-to-year growth because of Beijing's tightening measures this year.

Beijing this year gradually withdrew stimulus policies adopted last year amid the global financial crisis. In particular, China decided last month to loosen the yuan's peg to the dollar and allow the currency to rise, and adopted restrictive policies on the housing market that have been crimping sales since being put in place in mid-April.

中国国务院总理温家宝周日说，国际金融危机影响的严重性超过了人们的预期，宏观调控“面临的两难问题增多”，不过他重申中国不会停止调整经济结构、实现增长的步伐。

此前，上周公布的两项采购经理人指数显示6月份中国制造业放缓，上周五中国向上修订了2009年的国内生产总值(GDP)增幅。GDP增幅的修订意味着二季度及接下来的几个季度，中国的同比增长将有一个更高的比较基础，因此增幅可能会低于经济学家的预期。

尽管人们普遍预计中国经济会放缓，温家宝重申，中国将保持宏观经济政策的连续性、稳定性，增强调控的针对性和灵活性，以“解决当前存在的突出的紧迫性问题”，“也为明年乃至更长时期的经济平稳较快发展奠定基础”。据中央政府网站公布的一份声明，温家宝是在周六长沙举行的一个经济论坛上发表上述讲话的。

温家宝说，“当前中国经济形势是好的，但国内外经济环境极为复杂”。他说，政府将努力在管理通胀的同时，保持经济平稳较快发展。

中国国家统计局上周五将2009年的经济增幅从8.7%向上修订至9.1%，主要是因为第二、三产业的贡献更大。第二产业包括采矿业、制造业和能源业；第三产业则包括服务业。第一产业为农业、林业和渔业。

2008年，中国经济增幅为9.6%。

国家统计局说，2009年中国名义GDP达到人民币34万亿元（合5.02万亿美元）。按照去年的平均汇率计算，中国仍是全球第三大经济体，2009年的GDP低于日本──2009年日本的GDP略高于5万亿美元。名义GDP是按当前市场价格计算的，没有经通货膨胀调整。

预计增长迅速的中国将超过日本，成为世界上仅次于美国的第二大经济体（按照以市场汇率计算的美元计价的年度GDP），不过很可能要等到2010年底之后才能达到这一里程碑。

其他为经济体排行的方法会得到不同的结果。按购买力平价计算，中国早就是世界上第二大经济体了。如果欧盟算作一个经济体的话，欧盟将是世界第一大经济体，而美国则要屈居第二了。

中国将于7月15日公布二季度GDP数据。一些经济学家预计，由于北京今年推出了紧缩措施，二季度增幅将从一季度的11.9%降至略高于10%。

北京方面今年逐渐退出了去年全球经济危机时期开始实施的刺激政策。尤其值得一提的是，中国上个月决定放宽人民币与美元挂钩的做法，允许人民币升值，并在楼市上实施了限制性政策──自4月中旬实施以来令房屋销量下滑。