【英语中国】全球股市低迷 希腊中国领跌

It doesn't take a genius to figure out what was worrying stock investors during the second quarter. Just look at the laggards among global stock-market performance: Greece and China.

China -- an engine of growth coming out of the recession -- has been tightening lending and land sales to combat a perceived property bubble and a broader asset-price frothiness. Greece has been the symbol for European fiscal woes.

The poor performance of stock markets in those countries was mimicked later in the quarter in the U.S., as lackluster employment and housing data prompted skepticism from investors on the durability of the economic recovery.

The combination of European debt troubles, a possible Chinese slowdown and the specter of faltering growth in the U.S. was a recipe for stock-market stagnation.

'You kind of have this global trifecta of risks that are leading people to seek safety,' said Alec Young, international equity strategist with Standard & Poor's.

Markets in China began to cool during the first quarter, when the Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, on which many mainland Chinese companies list, posted some of the worst performances of major global benchmarks by falling 5.1% and 2.9%, respectively.

Amid the persistent concerns about property bubbles and inflation -- and the possibility of tighter government action to stop them -- the tumble in Chinese stocks steepened during the second quarter. The Shanghai Composite lost 22.9% during the period, leaving it in bear-market territory for the year. The Hang Seng lost 5.2% in the quarter, and is down just shy of 8% on the year.

Some analysts, however, see reason for cautious, if not bullish, optimism on the region. Cliff Hoover, lead portfolio manager at the DWS Dreman International Value Fund, thinks that China isn't likely to clamp down too tightly on the economy.

'I think, all in all, you're not going to see a deep decline there. They've just tapped on their brakes a little bit,' Mr. Hoover said. 'We think the market has overreacted, quite frankly.'

Whether investors have overreacted to strained finances of some European countries remains an open question. Concern over the weak fiscal position of European nations such as Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland ratcheted up in late April and early May. That resulted in credit-market upheaval, as the prices for sovereign debt of such nations plunged and yields spiked.

The credit-market tumult spilled into stock markets in the countries most affected. Greece's ASE Composite Index was down 30.6% for the quarter. Spain's IBEX-35 dropped 14.8%; Portugal's PSI-20 lost 12.8%. Italy's FTSE MIB was down 15.5%.

'The biggest concern, to me, over the second quarter was clearly Southern Europe and sovereign debt,' said John Maxwell, portfolio manager at the Ivy International Core Equity Fund.

In contrast to the first quarter, when the stock indexes in larger European economies managed to stay in positive territory, major European markets also suffered during the second quarter. France's CAC-40 fell 13.4% after rising 1% in the first period. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 lost 13.4% during the second quarter, versus a 4.9% gain during the first quarter. Germany's DAX fell 3.1%, as opposed to a 3.3% gain during the first quarter.

Some analysts, however, see Germany outperforming other European markets going forward because of the euro, which tumbled versus the dollar during the second quarter. That devaluation is a boon to Germany's massive export sector.

'It's going to be a booster that I think is underappreciated,' said Audrey Kaplan, co-head of international equities at Federated Investors, of the cheapening of the euro. Ms. Kaplan says she has been increasing her exposure to German stocks.

If a weaker euro is a boon to German exporters, it is a bane to American competitors. That was among the economic headwinds that began to weigh on U.S. shares during the quarter.

May employment data showed private-sector employers still were slow to hire. The disappearance of a federal tax credit for home buying led to a worse-than-expected decline in May U.S. home sales. In late June, the Fed held rates steady at near zero, and offered wary assessment of the U.S. economy.

Stocks responded. After rising fairly steadily through most of April, U.S. markets joined the global stock move lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 13% from its April 26 closing high of 11205.03. The Dow industrials finished the second quarter down 10%.

要想知道第二季度困扰股市投资者的因素是什么，你不必是个天才，看看全球股市表现最差的两个国家就知道了。它们是：希腊与中国。

作为带领全球走出衰退泥潭、恢复增长的发动机，中国一直在收紧信贷和土地销售以对抗已出现苗头的房地产泡沫和更广泛的资产价格泡沫。希腊一直是欧洲财政危机的标志。

美国就业情况及住房市场数据不佳，让投资者对经济复苏的持久性产生了怀疑，本季度后期，美国股市也开始向这些表现较差的股市靠拢。

欧洲债务问题、中国经济增长可能放缓以及美国经济增长缓慢这三种因素叠加在一起造成了股市的不景气。

标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)的国际股市策略师Alec Young说，这三种全球性风险的叠加，导致人们要寻找安全的投资。

今年第一季度，中国市场已开始降温。上证综指和香港恒生指数分别下跌5.1%和2.9%，跻身全球主要基准股指中表现最差者之列。许多中国内地公司在香港上市。

由于人们持续担心房地产泡沫和通胀以及政府有可能采取更严厉的行动来解决这些问题，第二季度中国股市下跌势头加剧。在此期间，上证综指下跌22.9%，今年已进入熊市。第二季度，恒生指数下跌5.2%，今年迄今的跌幅则接近8%。

然而，一些分析师认为有理由对这一地区保持至少是谨慎乐观的态度。DWS Dreman国际价值基金的主要投资组合经理胡佛(Cliff Hoover)认为，中国不太可能给经济戴上过紧的紧箍咒。

他说，我认为总体而言，这个地区不会出现深度的衰退，他们只是轻轻地踩了踩刹车；十分坦率地说，我们认为市场反应过度。

投资者对部分欧洲国家财政紧张的问题是否反应过度还无法确定。4月底和5月初，对希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰等欧洲国家财政状况较差的担忧开始加剧，导致信贷市场出现震荡，这些国家的主权债务价格跳水，收益率大涨。

信贷市场的震荡对受其影响最严重国家的股市造成了打击。当季，希腊的ASE综合指数下跌30.6%；西班牙的IBEX-35指数下跌14.8%；葡萄牙的PSI-20指数下跌12.8%；意大利的FTSE MIB指数下跌15.5%。

Ivy International核心股票基金的投资组合经理麦克斯韦(John Maxwell)说，第二季度我最担心的显然是南欧和主权债务。

今年第一季度，欧洲较大经济体的股市成功地保持在上行区域。第二季度则正相反，主要欧洲股市也表现不佳。法国CAC-40指数在第一季度上涨1%之后，第二季度下跌了13.4%；英国FTSE 100指数第一季度上涨4.9%，第二季度下跌13.4%；德国DAX指数第一季度上涨3.3%，第二季度下跌3.1%。

然而，部分分析师认为德国表现优于其它欧洲市场是由于第二季度欧元兑美元汇率的大幅下跌。欧元贬值给德国的大规模出口行业带来了好处。

Federated Investors的国际股市共同负责人卡普兰(Audrey Kaplan)说，欧元贬值的作用未得到充分重视，它将成为一个助推器。卡普兰说她一直在增加对德国股票的风险敞口。

如果欧元贬值给德国出口商带来好处，对美国的竞争者则正好相反。这正是第二季度美国股市开始遭遇的顶头风之一。

5月份就业数据显示，私营领域的公司仍不急于雇人。联邦政府不再向买房人提供税收减免导致5月份美国住宅销售的跌幅大于预期。6月末，美联储(Fed)继续将利率保持在接近零的水平，对美国经济的评估也较为谨慎。

股市对此作出了回应。美国股市4月份大部分时间均保持相当稳步的上涨，但之后便开始加入全球股市的下行队伍。与4月26日的收盘高点11205.03点相比，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数已下跌了约13%。道指第二季度下跌了10%。