【英语中国】中国钢企打喷嚏 全球航运商感冒

For all its failures at forging a united front to control global iron-ore prices, China still has the heft to remind us that the appetite of the world's biggest steel factory matters a lot when it comes to influencing commodity markets.

Exhibit A comes from the Baltic Dry Index, which could use a drink after June's performance.

Shipbrokers say the plunge, which more than halved capesize-vessel freight rates in a month, is due to faltering demand for iron ore from Chinese steel mills as they grapple with a tougher export environment as well as policy moves to rein in excess construction.

Capesize vessels are the supersized carriers that account for a third of international seaborne trade. Their fortunes lie in the business of the world's top three iron-ore miners--BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale--which together control three-quarters of seaborne iron-ore supply.

The trio's largest customer is China, where months of boycott threats in an attempt to control prices haven't succeeded quite as well as simply getting serious about cleaning up and slimming down the country's bloated domestic steel sector.

Since April, Chinese steelmakers have been getting one whammy after another. Tighter credit conditions. No more rampant, construction-chasing, housing-market speculation. Yuan appreciation threatens exports. The end of export tax rebates, forcing mills to shift toward higher value-added products.

The jury's still out on whether Exhibit A will come to define the second half of 2010. Chances are, China's commodity demand won't collapse.

Macroeconomic indicators are still relatively healthy despite volatility in the commodity markets. The two key commodities capesizes carry are iron ore and coal, and coal demand is expected to remain strong into the second half.

But for China, Exhibit A might embody a vivid lesson: When trying to control global iron-ore trade, the campaign starts at home.

尽管在打造全球铁矿石价格联合阵线方面屡屡失败，但中国仍然有能力提醒我们，世界最大钢铁厂的胃口会对大宗商品市场产生重要影响。

表A摘自波罗的海干散货指数(Baltic Dry Index)，看到该指数6月份的表现可以喝一杯。

一个月内，超大型散装船的运费跌了一半以上。船舶经纪人说，由于中国钢企的出口环境更为严酷且政府改变了政策以遏止过度建设，因此中国钢企对铁矿石的需求出现下降，导致运费下跌。

超大型散装船的货运量占国际海上贸易量的三分之一。它们生意的好坏由全球三大铁矿石生产商的业务量决定。巴西淡水河谷公司(Vale)以及力拓股份有限公司(Rio Tinto)和必和必拓(BHP Billiton)这三大铁矿石生产商控制了海运铁矿石供应量的四分之三。

作为这三家巨头最大的客户国，中国几个月来为控制铁矿石价格而发出的抵制采购威胁都不太成功。然而，中国认真清理钢企并为臃肿的钢铁行业瘦身的努力却见到了成效。

自4月份以来，中国钢企接连受到打击。信贷条件收紧，无节制的、追求建设量的住宅市场投机也消失了。人民币升值威胁到出口。出口退税的取消，迫使炼钢厂转向附加值更高的产品。

表A能否决定2010年下半年的运费水平还是未知数。好消息是，中国对大宗商品的需求不会大幅萎缩。

尽管大宗商品市场大幅波动，宏观经济指标依然相对健康。铁矿石和煤炭是超大型散装船运输的两种主要大宗商品，煤炭的市场需求下半年有望保持强劲。

但对中国而言，表A或许给他们上了生动的一课：要想控制全球铁矿石贸易，首先要在国内打响这场战役。