【英语中国】矿难频发影响生产 考验煤炭价格

A string of deadly coal mining accidents around the world that have forced production cutbacks and prompted crackdowns on safety standards will constrain supplies and could lead to sharply higher prices for some types of coal.

In the U.S. on Tuesday, House and Senate Democrats introduced mine safety measures in response to an April 5 explosion at a Massey Energy Co. mine that killed 29 miners. The proposals would make it easier for regulators to close mines with a history of significant safety violations and boost criminal and civil penalties for operators.

The hit to the global coal supply could disrupt shipments forcing suppliers and buyers to scramble to secure new sources. Increased safety measures could reach 2% to 3% of total underground coal production by 2011, estimates David Khani, an analyst with FBR Capital Markets. 'It's definitely going to hurt productivity,' Mr. Khani said.

He attributes the recent spike in accidents to a pick up in demand for metallurgical coal in recent months. Most recent accidents have been at metallurgical coal mines which tend to be located deep underground where that coal is formed over longer periods of time at higher pressures. Thermal coal used by utilities, by contrast, is often mined at the surface with big earth moving machines.

Mr. Khani estimates the benchmark price for metallurgical coal this year will hit $225 a metric ton, up from $129 a ton last year. The recent accidents are expected to have the biggest impact on demand and prices for metallurgical coal.

In May, 90 miners and rescuers were killed in explosions at Raspadskaya, Russia, the county's biggest underground mine, which produced nine million tons annually of metallurgical coal, mostly for domestic consumption. Another mine in Ukraine that produced two million tons a year was closed recently as well.

Alpha Natural Resources Inc., the largest U.S. exporter of metallurgical coal by volume, attributes a steep increase in its exports to the Ukraine this year to those closures. U.S. exports to the Ukraine through the first five months of this year have already matched its total exports to the country last year.

'Those are two huge mines that had events that impacted supply. It's no surprise that our exports to Ukraine are way up,' said Ted Pile, a spokesman for Abingdon, Va.-based Alpha who estimated it could take 12 to 15 months to get the Russian mine back in operation.

In China, nine accidents from March through May, involving fires, floods and explosions killed 152 miners, before a June explosion killed 47 more miners in China's Henan Province. Meanwhile, an explosion at an underground mine in Colombia that produced thermal coal used by utilities killed 73 miners.

In some cases, safety concerns are prompting mines to close before workers are injured. This month, Patriot Coal Corp. said it would permanently close its Harris Mine in Raleigh County, W.Va., because of a recent roof collapse and because it expected continued difficult mining conditions. The mine was set to produce 440,000 tons of metallurgical coal.

'Most of the accidents we've seen have been met coal closures,' said Gerard McCloskey, chairman of The McCloskey Group, a U.K.-based consultancy and news provider focused on the global coal industry. Mr. McCloskey said there was 'a panic' after the Massey accident that drove up prices for high quality metallurgical coal in April.

However, several companies said they have yet to see demand or prices shift significantly. 'All these tragedies are just too recent,' said Shane Harvey, general counsel for Massey. He said existing stockpiles would mitigate the impact of some closures.

On Tuesday, U.S. coal company shares fell about 7% on news of the bill and worries about economic activity weakening in Asia, where the steel industry's coal appetite has been voracious.

European Pressphoto Agency矿难频发正在对煤炭价格产生影响。图为，今年5月俄罗斯Raspadskaya矿难现场。全球一系列致人死亡的煤矿事故已迫使煤矿减产并导致相关当局对安全标准进行严格审查。此外，这些事故还将造成供应量吃紧并有可能导致某些类型的煤炭价格飙升。

周二，作为对4月5日导致29名矿工死亡的Massey Energy Co.煤矿爆炸事故的回应，美国参、众两院的民主党议员提出了矿业安全措施提案。这一提案将使监管者更易于关闭那些曾严重违反安全规定的矿山，并更易于加强对运营者的刑事和民事处罚。

全球煤炭供应受到打击，可能会扰乱发货并迫使供应商和买家争着确保新的煤炭来源。FBR Capital Markets的分析师哈尼(David Khani)估计，到2011年，安全措施的增强对地下煤炭生产总量的影响可能会达到2%至3%。他说，肯定会对生产率造成损失。

他认为近几个月冶金用煤需求量的增加是导致近期事故增多的主要原因。近期大多数事故均发生在生产冶金用煤的煤矿中。这种煤的形成需要更长的时间和更高的压力，因此这些煤矿大多深藏于地下。相比之下，公共事业所用的热煤通常用大型挖掘设备从地表进行开采。

哈尼估计冶金用煤的基准价今年将达到每公吨225美元，而去年仅为129美元。预计近期的事故对冶金用煤的需求和价格的影响最大。

5月，俄罗斯最大的地下煤矿Raspadskaya发生爆炸，导致90名矿工及救援人员死亡。这座煤矿年产冶金用煤900万吨，大多供国内使用。乌克兰的一座年产200万吨煤的煤矿也于近期关闭。

按出口量计，Alpha Natural Resources Inc.是美国最大的冶金用煤出口商。这家公司认为上述煤矿被关闭导致其今年对乌克兰出口猛增。今年前五个月，美国对乌克兰的出口已经与去年全年持平。

Alpha公司发言人派尔(Ted Pile)说，这是两座巨型煤矿，它们发生了事故，影响了供应量。因此我们对乌克兰的出口增加也不足为奇。他估计俄罗斯的煤矿可能需要12至15个月才能恢复运营。

今年3月至5月，包括失火、透水和爆炸在内，中国发生了九起事故，造成152名矿工死亡。6月，又有47名矿工在河南的煤矿爆炸中身亡。与此同时，哥伦比亚的一座地下煤矿发生爆炸，导致73名矿工死亡。这座煤矿生产公共事业所需的热煤。

在某些情况下，对安全的担心会促使运营者关闭煤矿以防工人受伤。本月，Patriot Coal Corp.说，由于位于西弗吉尼亚州的哈里斯矿(Harris Mine)近期发生冒顶事故并且预计开采条件仍将很艰难，公司将永久性关闭这座矿井。这座煤矿原计划生产440,000吨冶金用煤。

关注全球煤炭行业的英国咨询及新闻提供商──McCloskey Group的董事长麦克洛斯基(Gerard McCloskey)说，大多数煤矿发生事故后均被关闭。他说，Massey矿难后出现了恐慌情绪。4月，Massey矿难导致高品质冶金用煤的价格上涨。

无论如何，多家公司说它们还未见到煤炭需求或价格的大幅波动。Massey的总顾问哈维(Shane Harvey)说，所有这些悲剧才刚刚发生。现有的库存将减轻部分煤矿关闭的影响。

周二，受提案影响以及出于对亚洲经济活力减弱的担忧，美国煤业公司股价下跌7%。亚洲的钢铁行业一直对煤炭有着巨大的需求。