【英语中国】出口退税取消促中国钢铁业痛苦转型

The recent buzz in China commodities has been about the end of a 9% value-added tax rebate for steel exports.

The rebate means a partial refund for exporters. Its demise means lower margins for commodity producers.

Steelmakers are understandably wringing their hands over this. Beijing's determination to nip property and credit asset bubbles was already painful enough for them: Construction accounts for half of China's domestic steel consumption.

Of course, some might think their reaction is overwrought. Chinese steel exports, after all, have been doing quite well. May exports showed an eye-popping 266% increase from a year earlier, to 4.94 million tons, coming on the heels of a 205% expansion in April.

However, it seems there was a reason for that.

A China Iron and Steel Association official told Dow Jones Newswires Wednesday that steelmakers had already been aware for months that the demise of the rebate was afoot, and so piled exports into the last two months.

The rebate officially ends July 15, so expect to see another two months, June and July, of impressive gains in steel exports, before things really go south, the CISA official said.

Still, that doesn't mean the blast furnaces of the Middle Kingdom will turn cold.

Higher value-add products, including cold-rolled and galvanized sheet, which American Metal Market research says is where a lot of U.S. buyer interest lies anyway, continue to enjoy refunds of 13% of their export tax.

But make no mistake--there will be pain. Steel prices are widely expected to keep falling. Steel exporters were deriving their profit almost entirely from the rebate on hot-rolled and cold-rolled overseas sales. Now that is over.

Perhaps this is what Beijing intended: to send a message to its steelmakers, which have stealthily added 40 new steelmaking projects so far this year despite a government ban on new capacity.

The government wants steel mills to start moving higher value-add product, and for steelmakers to get smaller and leaner.

The message from Beijing says: 'This time, we mean business.'

最近中国大宗商品行业议论纷纷的话题是钢铁产品9%的出口退税率将终结。

出口退税指的是向出口商退还缴纳的部分税款。它的终结意味着大宗商品生产商的利润率将下降。

钢铁生产商对此苦恼不已，这是可以理解的。北京方面决定为房地产和信贷资产泡沫降温，这个决定对钢铁生产商来说已经很痛苦了：建筑占了中国国内钢铁消费的一半。

当然，有人可能会想，它们的反应过度了。毕竟，中国钢铁出口一直表现非常好。继4月份增长了205%之后，5月份出口更是大出意料地增至494万吨，较去年同期增长266%。

不过，看起来这样的大幅增长是有原因的。

中国钢铁工业协会的一名官员周三对道琼斯通讯社说，钢铁生产商好几个月之前就已经意识到出口退税即将结束，因此在过去的两个月中大量出口。

上述官员说，出口退税将于7月15日正式结束，因此在钢铁出口下滑之前，预计6月和7月这两个月钢铁出口还会大幅飙升。

尽管如此，这并不意味着中国火爆的钢铁行业会冷却。

包括冷轧钢板和镀锌钢板等高附加值产品将继续享受13%的出口退税率。据American Metal Market的研究说，这些产品也正是很多美国买家的兴趣所在。

不过，不要搞错──疼痛是不可避免的。人们普遍预计钢铁价格将下滑。钢铁出口商此前的利润几乎全部来自热轧和冷轧钢板出口退税。如今，出口退税要结束了。

或许，这正是北京方面的意图所在：向中国钢铁生产商发出信号。今年以来，中国钢铁生产商已经暗地里增加了40个新建钢铁生产项目，尽管政府对新增产能颁布了禁令。

政府希望钢铁厂开始转向高附加值产品，钢铁生产商能变得精简高效。

北京发出的信息是：这次，我们是说真的。