【英语中国】中国汇改为何乏人喝彩

For a move that had been so long lobbied for and agonised over, China's weekend announcement that it would allow some flexibility back into the value of its currency was greeted by economists with grudging optimism rather than yelps of glee.

Few think the move will have a dramatic impact on the world economy – specifically on the huge global imbalances seen before the financial crisis, which are threatening to re-appear.

Partly, they said, this was because of its limited size. The renminbi offshore forwards market yesterday was predicting an appreciation of just 2.3 per cent by the end of the year. At that rate, very roughly speaking and holding other things equal, it would take China more than a decade to eliminate the currency's overvaluation, estimated to be in the range of 25-40 per.

But the caution is partly because most economists regard an exchange rate move as a helpful but not sufficient – and perhaps not strictly necessary – part of shifting consumer demand from the US to Asia. The previous episode of renminbi flexibility, from 2005-2008, was accompanied by a soaring Chinese current account surplus. A consumption boom in the US and companies moving production to China more than offset the moderate loss in competitiveness.

For this to be truly good news, they say, it must be part of a multi-pronged policy offensive to re-orient the economy away from export-led growth and towards domestic consumption.

In fully liberal market economies, holding down the exchange rate tends to deliver only temporary gains in competitiveness before the economy overheats and rising wage and price inflation push up the real exchange rate.

But Yiping Huang, economics professor at the China Centre for Economic Research, Peking University, argues that heavily regulated and directed capital markets, subsidised energy for industry and discrimination against migrant workers all hold down costs and wages, preventing the normal process of inflation eroding China's competitiveness. They, too, need reform. “Addressing this problem will require a comprehensive policy package,” he wrote in a recent paper for the Vox-EU policy website. “An exclusive focus on the value of the bilateral exchange rate could be counter-productive”.

China's defenders say this is happening. Ardo Hansson, World Bank's lead economist for China says: “There is a whole bucket of policies that are appropriate for rebalancing, including pensions, education, healthcare, access to finance, services reform, land reform and urbanisation. In each of these areas, things are generally moving in the right direction.” The World Bank predicts China's current account surplus, 11 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008, will fall to 4.7 per cent of GDP this year and next.

China's exports have recovered strongly – in the first five months of 2010, they were 10 per cent above the level in the same period in 2008, before the financial crisis. Given that global imports are still below pre-crisis levels, that indicates that Chinese exporters have continued to gain market share. But the trade surplus has declined due to surging import volumes and deteriorating terms of trade.

Government-led infrastructure has been responsible for some imports, but some observers believe domestic consumer demand is playing a role. “There are many things happening in China which are much faster than our friends outside China realise, including structural change,” says Li Daokui, a Tsinghua professor and member of the central bank's monetary policy committee. “Private consumption is growing very fast, driving up domestic demand.”

There are other countries in the world apart from the US and China. Arvind Subramanian at the Peterson Institute in Washington says one set of beneficiaries will be emerging markets in east Asia and Latin America. Many have held down their currencies to prevent a loss of competitiveness to China, and have suffered rapid and destabilising capital inflows. Some, such as Brazil, have introduced capital controls and taxes to prevent overheating.

“All across Asia, countries have had to deal with the real problem of overheating,” Mr Subramanian says. “At the margin, this [revaluation] will help them cope better.”

But as for China's critics, particularly in the US, they will need to see a much faster move in the renminbi, or a more effective set of rebalancing policies, before they are convinced that this change is anything but a small gesture.

中国上周末宣布，将增强人民币汇率弹性。尽管外界为此进行了长期游说，许多人也因此烦恼不已，但到头来，经济学家们对此仅勉强表示乐观，而非大声喝彩。

几乎没有人认为，此举将对世界经济产生戏剧性影响——尤其是对于全球金融危机之前出现的巨大全球失衡而言，如今这样的失衡有可能卷土重来。

经济学家们表示，部分原因在于中国此举的幅度有限。从人民币离岸远期市场昨日的表现看，市场预计人民币到今年底仅将升值2.3%。按照这种速度，粗略计算显示（假定其它因素不变），中国将需要超过10年时间，才能消除据估计为25%-40%的人民币低估程度。

但这种谨慎在一定程度上是因为，多数经济学家认为，在把消费者需求从美国转向亚洲方面，调整汇率是有益、但并不充分（严格说来也许并不必要）的一部分。2005年至2008年上一次人民币汇率增强弹性期间，中国经常账户盈余飙升。美国的消费繁荣，加之企业纷纷将生产迁往中国，充分抵消了中国在竞争力上的轻微损失。

经济学家们表示，要使此举成为真正的好消息，它必须是一场多重政策攻势的一部分，宗旨是调整中国经济结构，使其减轻对出口拉动型增长的依赖，转向国内消费。

在完全自由的市场经济体中，人为压低汇率往往只会在短期提高竞争力，随后经济将过热，加薪和价格通胀将推高实际汇率。

但北京大学国家发展研究院(China Centre for Economic Research)经济学教授黄益平提出，在中国，资本市场受到严格监管和指导、为工业提供能源补贴、以及针对农民工的歧视，都压低了成本和工资，阻止了正常的通胀过程侵蚀中国的竞争力。这些也需要改革。“应对这个问题将需要一套全面的政策方案，”他在近期为Vox-EU政策网站撰写的一篇论文中表示。“仅仅专注于双边汇率的价值，可能会适得其反。”

为中国辩护的人士表示，中国正在出台全面政策。世界银行(World Bank)首席中国经济学家韩伟森(Ardo Hansson)表示：“目前有大量政策是合乎再平衡要求的，包括养老金、教育、医疗保健、融资渠道、服务改革、土地改革和城市化。在所有这些领域，情况总体上正向着正确的方向发展。”世行预计，中国经常账户盈余占国内生产总值(GDP)的份额将从2008年的11%，降至今明两年的4.7%。

中国出口已呈现强劲复苏，在2010年头五个月，中国出口已经比金融危机之前的2008年同期水平高出10%。鉴于全球进口仍低于危机前水平，这说明中国出口商仍在继续扩大市场份额。但中国的贸易盈余有所下降，原因是进口飙升，贸易条件不断恶化。

政府主导的基建项目可以解释一部分进口，但一些观察人士相信，国内消费者需求正在发挥作用。“中国正在发生的许多事，比国外朋友意识到的要快得多，”清华大学教授、中国央行货币政策委员会委员李稻葵表示。“私人消费正在快速增长，推高国内需求。”

世界上除了美国和中国外，当然还有其它国家。华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute)的阿文德·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Arvind Subramanian)表示，中国汇改的受益人将包括东亚和拉丁美洲的一些新兴市场国家。这些国家中有很多迄今压低本币汇率，以防相对于中国失去竞争力，结果都遭受了快速且不利于稳定的资本流入。有些国家（比如巴西）已推出资本管制，并开征新税，以防止经济过热。

“在整个亚洲，各国都不得不对付切实的过热问题，”萨勃拉曼尼亚表示。“（中国此次汇改）至少将帮助它们更好地应对。”

但是，对于批评中国的人士（尤其是在美国）来说，他们将需要看到人民币以快得多的速度升值，或者看到中国出台更有效的一揽子再平衡政策，才能确信此次改革不只是一个小小的姿态。

译者/和风