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2010-7-1 02:01
American stocks and bond yields fell sharply as concerns mounted that the economy might be in for a slowdown.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.6% back below 10000 on slumping U.S. consumer confidence, the downward revision of a Chinese economic indicator and worries about the health of Europe's banks. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes fell below 3% to their lowest level since April 2009, a sign investors were seeking out safe investments. The Conference Board, a non-profit research group, reported Tuesday that consumer confidence dropped in June, wiping out gains from the previous two months. The index fell to 52.9, down sharply from a downwardly revised 62.7 the month before, with an increasing number of households saying jobs were 'hard to get.' Earlier in the day, the Conference Board downwardly revised a leading indicator of Chinese economic growth. Investors were also jittery about the expiration of a European Central Bank program to extend 12-month financing to European lenders. A double-dip recession is still widely viewed as unlikely. But the drop in confidence is just the latest sign suggesting the economy could lose steam in the second half of 2010 and perhaps grow more slowly than in the first half. Weak job creation is a central part of the problem. Friday's report by the Labor Department on the job market in June is expected to show private-sector hiring perked up in June as the Census Bureau laid off temporary workers. But gathering signs of economic headwinds suggest future job growth could be slim. Among these headwinds: signs that the housing sector is heading into a new downturn, and financial conditions that have turned less supportive of growth as stock prices decline, the dollar strengthens and credit markets struggle. The global backdrop has grown more uncertain as European governments such as the U.K. and Germany turn their attention to closing budget deficits. There are reasons for optimism. Individual incomes are rising and supportive of steady growth in consumer spending. Corporate cash flows are strong and supportive of investment and hiring. The industrial recovery, though it could lose some momentum as inventory rebuilding slows, has been robust. The economy grew at a 2.7% annual rate in the first quarter, and economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal on average believe it grew at a 3.6% pace in the second quarter, which ends Wednesday. The consensus is for a modest 3% growth rate in the second half, but some forecasters call that optimistic. 'I'm getting more pessimistic about the ability for the economy to reaccelerate in the fourth quarter and in the first half of 2011,' says Paul Kasriel, chief economist at the Northern Trust bank in Chicago. He expects the economy to grow at a rate of around 2.5% in the second half of the year. President Barack Obama expressed optimism about the outlook after a morning meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Mr. Obama said he and Mr. Bernanke 'share the view that the economy is strengthening,' noting that the U.S. has gone from losing 750,000 jobs per month last year to five months of job growth. One thing weighing on the economy is the housing market, which, after stabilizing, is weakening again as government support disappears. Mark Petit, owner of M&M Contractors in Salem, Mass., says he saw a significant uptick in roofing and other business in March, April and May, as people did storm-related repairs and fixed up homes for sale. In June, though, business has been down about 20% from a year earlier. 'I was pretty busy but I didn't think it was going to last,' he says. 'Unfortunately, I was right.' Pauses aren't uncommon early in a recovery. After rebounding from recession in late 2001 and early 2002, the economy had a 12-month stretch in which it grew at a paltry 1.5% annual rate, sparking fears of a double-dip recession. In late 1991, growth waned after a recovery had started. In the past 12 months, the economy has gotten off to a faster start than in 2002. Uncertainty is weighing on business executives. Maine-based Lincoln Paper and Tissue LLC is running at full capacity right now, but it's not planning on expanding operations or adding to its 390 employees. 'We're hunkered down and we're not contemplating any big moves of any sort right now,' said CEO Keith Van Scotter. Fed officials believe the positives are likely to outweigh the worries and keep the recovery on track, putting the Fed in a position to begin raising short-term interest rates some time far down the road. A stumble would pose a dilemma for Fed officials. Interest rates are near zero, so they lack the traditional tool of interest-rate cuts to combat a faltering economy. Obama administration is still pushing to advance an extension of unemployment benefits for laid-off workers now frozen in the Senate. House Democrats failed Tuesday in a renewed effort to pass an extension of unemployment benefits. The housing market has served as a reminder of the potential impact of removing federal support in a fragile economy. In May, after home-buyer tax credits expired, the numbers of new homes on which builders broke ground fell a seasonally adjusted 10%, and new home sales plunged 33% to an annualized rate of 300,000 -- the lowest level on record. The loss of stimulus funding is also hitting state and local governments, which are facing a combined budget deficit of some $137 billion this year and $144 billion in 2011. Some states have already gone through most of the federal education funds earmarked for the 2009-1010 and 2010-2011 school years. With no more money forthcoming, they've been cuttting services and are firing tens of thousands of teachers. 由于担心经济可能放缓的情绪加重,美国股价和债券收益率大幅下降。
道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)下跌2.6%,重新回到10000点以下,原因是美国消费者信心重挫,一项中国经济指标被向下修正,欧洲银行业的健康状况也引起了担忧。10年期美国国债的收益率跌破3%,创2009年4月份以来的最低水平,说明投资者正忙着寻找安全投资产品。 非营利研究组织世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)周二报告说,6月份美国消费者信心下降,抹去了前两个月取得的上升幅度。指数跌至52.9,远低于前一月向下修正后的62.7,越来越多的家庭表示工作很难找。 当天早些时候,世界大型企业联合会向下修正了一个有关中国经济增速的领先指标。另外,欧洲中央银行(European Central Bank)为欧洲银行提供12个月融资的计划行将到期,也让投资者焦虑不安。 人们依旧普遍认为二次探底的可能性不大。但美国消费者信心的下降进一步说明,2010年下半年美国经济可能失去动力,增长速度或许会慢于上半年。 就业创造不足是症结之一。周五美国劳工部(Labor Department)有关6月份就业市场的报告,预计会显示私营部门招聘数量随着人口普查局(Census Bureau)裁减临时工而增加。但显示经济不利因素的迹象越来越多,意味着将来可能只有微弱的就业增长。 这些不利因素包括:迹象显示房地产部门正在迎来新一轮低迷;随着股价下跌、美元走强和信贷市场遇到困难,金融环境对经济增长的支持力度已经减弱。随着英国和德国等欧洲国家政府把注意转向削减预算赤字,全球大环境已经变得更加不确定。 也不乏乐观的理由。个人收入正在上升,有利于消费支出的稳定增长。公司现金流强劲,有利于投资和招聘。工业的复苏虽然可能随着存货重新积累的放慢而失去势头,但毕竟是强劲的。 一季度美国经济按年率计算增长了2.7%,《华尔街日报》调查的经济学家们平均估测在周三结束的二季度里,增长了3.6%。他们普遍认为下半年的增长率只有3%,但一些人觉得这种预测太乐观了。 芝加哥银行Northern Trust首席经济学家卡斯里尔(Paul Kasriel)说,我对经济能否在四季度及2011年上半年再次加速感到越来越悲观。他预计下半年的增长率约为2.5%。 奥巴马总统在与美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)举行的晨会后,表达了对前景的乐观。奥巴马说,他和贝南克都认为经济在逐渐走强,他指出去年美国每月丧失75万个就业岗位,而如今已经连续五个月实现就业增长。 重压经济的一个因素是楼市。楼市在企稳之后,随着政府支持的消失,再次开始疲弱。 马萨诸塞州承包商M&M Contractors的所有者佩蒂特(Mark Petit)说,随着人们在暴风雨过后和为出售而修缮房屋,3、4、5月份的屋顶修理和其他业务有了明显的好转。不过,6月份的业务同比下滑了约20%。他说,我很忙,但我想这不会持续下去的;不幸的是,我说对了。 在复苏的早期,步伐的停顿并不少见。在2001年底和2002年初从衰退中反弹之后,经济有长达12个月的时间年增幅只有可怜的1.5%,人们不禁担心会出现二次探底。1991年底,复苏开始后,增长减弱了。 在过去12个月中,经济复苏开始的速度比2002年时要快。 不确定性重压着企业高管。位于缅因州的Lincoln Paper and Tissue LLC目前全线开工,不过并不计划扩大运营或在现有的390名员工之外再招聘更多人员。公司首席执行长范斯科特(Keith Van Scotter)说,我们遭受了重压,目前我们不考虑进行任何类型的重大举措。 美联储官员认为有利因素可能会超过担忧并保持复苏顺利进行,这样美联储就可以在未来的某个时间开始提高短期利率。复苏的停顿则会使美联储官员陷入两难处境。利率处于近零水平,这样他们就无法通过降息这一传统手段来提振逐渐走软的经济。 奥巴马政府仍在推进扩大失业人员失业福利的议案,不过目前该议案在参议院被冻结了。众议院民主党周二没能通过再次提出的扩大失业福利的议案。 楼市的状况提醒了人们在经济疲弱之际取消联邦支持可能带来的影响。5月份,在购房者的抵税额到期后,新屋开工数经季节调整后下滑了10%,新屋销量下跌33%,年率化后为30万套,为有史以来的最低纪录。 刺激资金的失去还打击了各州和地方政府。各地政府今年面临总计约1,370亿美元的预算赤字,明年则有1,440亿美元。 一些州已经花掉了拨给2009-2010和2010-2011学年的大部分联邦教育资金。在没有更多资金来源的情况下,它们一直在削减服务、解雇数万名教师。 |