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2010-6-25 01:43
China is set to overtake Japan as the world's largest importer of thermal coal as soon as this year, only three years after Beijing became a net importer of the mineral used to fire power stations, according to an emerging industry consensus.
The speed at which Chinese coal imports are growing is surprising miners, traders and policymakers, who had previously not expected China to overtake Japan before 2015. Traders and policymakers said they expected China's thermal coal net imports to hit 105m-115m tonnes this year, level with or above Japan, which is expected to buy about 110m tonnes. China was a net exporter of coal until 2007. Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, said: “China's imports of thermal coal could exceed Japan's this year for the first time.” The coal mining and trading industry largely takes the same view. Some traders believe China and Japan will be “neck and neck” this year, while others say Beijing could overtake Tokyo, based on the pace of imports so far this year. China had net imports of 47.5m tonnes between January and May, up more than 120 per cent from 2009. If the current pace is sustained, its net imports would hit 114m tonnes by December. But traders expect a slight slowdown. The closely watched Australia Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics this week put China's net thermal coal imports this year at 98m tonnes, still below Japan, but above South Korea, until now the second-largest importer. Coal prices in the Australian port of Newcastle, the benchmark in Asia, have risen again to $100 a tonne on the back of buying by China, India and other countries. In Europe, coal prices in Rotterdam for delivery in three months – the benchmark – rose last week to $96 a tonne, the highest since November 2008. Beijing's appetite for imported thermal coal bodes well for miners such as Xstrata, the world's largest coal exporter, PT Bumi Resources of Indonesia, Anglo American or US-based Peabody Energy. Commodities traders such as Glencore and Hong Kong-based Noble are particularly well positioned to cash in, executives said. Greg Boyce, chief executive of Peabody, told investors recently that the world economy was at “the early stages of a long-term supercycle for coal”. Policymakers are concerned about the impact of rising buying on global energy prices and carbon emissions. Mr Birol said China's buying would underpin global coal prices, adding: “The increase in coal prices will increase electricity prices and increase the cost of manufacturing.” 业内正在形成的共识认为，中国最早将在今年超越日本，成为全球最大电煤进口国。而仅仅三年前，中国刚成为这种火电站燃料的净进口国。
中国煤炭进口的增长速度之快，令矿商、交易员和政策制定者感到意外，他们此前预计，中国在2015年之前不会超越日本。 交易员和政策制定者表示，他们现在预期，中国今年的电煤净进口量将达到1.05亿至1.15亿吨，赶上甚至超越日本（预期将进口约1.10亿吨）。在2007年以前，中国一直是煤炭的净出口国。 国际能源机构(IEA)首席经济学家法提赫·比罗尔(Fatih Birol)表示：“中国的电煤进口量今年可能首次超越日本。” 煤炭采掘及贸易行业基本上抱有相同看法。一些交易员相信，中国和日本今年将“不相上下”，而其他人表示，根据今年迄今的进口势头，中国可能超越日本。 1月至5月，中国的电煤净进口量达到4750万吨，同比增长逾120%。如果目前的进口速度得以持续，到12月中国的净进口量将达到1.14亿吨。但交易员们预期，中国的电煤进口将出现轻度减速。 受到密切关注的澳大利亚农业和资源经济局(Abare)本周预计，中国今年的电煤净进口量将达到9800万吨，仍低于日本，但高于迄今一直是第二大进口国的韩国。 澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港的煤炭价格是亚洲基准。在中国、印度和其它国家踊跃购买的推动下，这一价格已再次涨至每吨100美元。在欧洲，鹿特丹三个月内交货的煤炭价格（欧洲基准）上周涨至每吨96美元，为2008年11月以来的最高水平。 中国对进口电煤需求庞大，对煤炭矿商是利好消息，如全球最大煤炭出口商斯特拉塔(Xstrata)、印尼的PT Bumi Resources、英美资源集团(Anglo American)以及美国的皮博迪能源(Peabody Energy)。业内高管们表示，大宗商品交易商嘉能可(Glencore)和总部位于香港的来宝集团(Noble Group)也处于极其有利的地位。 皮博迪首席执行官格雷格·博伊斯(Greg Boyce)最近对投资者表示，世界经济正处于“一个煤炭多年超级周期的早期阶段。” 政策制定者们担心煤炭购买量上升对全球能源价格和碳排放的影响。比罗尔表示，中国的购买将支撑全球煤炭价格，并补充说：“煤价上涨将推高电费，进而增加制造业成本。” 译者/和风 |