【英语科技】百度股价飙升背后暗藏隐忧

As a recipe for investor euphoria, it is hard to beat the heady mix of China, the Internet and search. Throw in a mostly benign competitive environment plus the likelihood that the dollar will continue depreciating against the Chinese yuan, and you have Baidu.com's extraordinary surge. The ADRs, listed on Nasdaq, have risen around 40-fold to $110 since their 2005 debut at a split-adjusted $2.70 a share.

The company's stunning sales growth in that time shows it is no dot-com mirage. As measured in yuan, this year's revenue is set to eclipse 2005's by a factor of 25. Measured in depreciating dollars, that grows to 30 times.

Baidu, which already dominated Chinese search, gained even more of a stranglehold when rival Google had to limit operations after falling afoul of the Chinese government in the third quarter. At 73%, Baidu's share of China search revenue ticked up another three percentage points, after adding six points in the second quarter, says Beijing research firm Analysys International.

Meanwhile, Google's share price has dropped to 22% from 31% since the first quarter. No other competitor boasts even a 1% share.

But Baidu's biggest boost, according to Goldman Sachs analyst James Mitchell, has been an internal technology initiative that encourages advertisers to spend more. The move is similar to what Google does in the U.S., encouraging flower shops, for instance, to put advertisements next to search results not just for 'roses' but also for related keywords like 'Valentine's Day.' As a result, Baidu's revenue growth is actually forecast to accelerate -- to 78% this year from 39% last year, says Mr. Mitchell. Operating profit margins are above 50%.

Online commerce and advertising in China has a long way to go to catch up with the U.S. in terms of sophistication and profit potential.

Meanwhile, just 32% of the Chinese are online, says the government; developed countries have rates closer to 80%. Chinese GDP growth is expected to be 10% this year, according to the World Bank. And consumption should start to grow as a percentage of the economy as it starts to rebalance away from its huge reliance on exports.

All these factors should put upward pressure on the yuan, fueling Baidu profits when translated into dollar terms.

A short-hand valuation method suggests much of this optimism is already factored into the shares. Google's enterprise value is about $170 billion. A bit less than half of its business is in the U.S., where its market share of search revenues is about 80%, according to SearchIgnite. Figure Google's U.S. operations are worth $80 billion. Also figure that China's economy will be half as large as the U.S.'s within four years. Baking in that growth, and assuming Baidu retains its dominant position, could make it worth some $40 billion. That is only just above its current $38 billion enterprise value.

There are risks. One is the possibility that the Chinese economic miracle has morphed into a credit bubble, which could pop. Also, rivals could make headway. Though far behind today, powerful e-commerce rival Alibaba.com could chip into Baidu's growth with its new search engine powered by Microsoft. Last, investors should remember that this is China. Profits are ultimately at the mercy of the Communist Party, which has an interest in keeping close control of Internet activity.

Such fears are likely to be set aside as investors bet on a falling dollar and on fast-growing emerging markets enjoying an extra boost from Federal Reserve policy. But with the shares worth nearly 50 times next year's earnings, Baidu bulls risk running ahead of themselves.

作为集中国、互联网和搜索这三大概念于一身的公司，百度在线网络技术公司(Baidu.com)的股票足以让投资者兴高采烈。由于该公司身处大体良性的竞争环境，再加上美元兑人民币有可能继续贬值，百度的股价大幅飙升也就顺理成章了。自该公司2005年在美国纳斯达克市场上市以来，其美国存托凭证已上涨了约40倍，从经拆股因素调整后的2.70美元上涨到110美元。

该公司销售额在此期间的骄人增长显示，百度不是一个互联网泡沫时代的海市蜃楼。以人民币计算，百度今年的收入将达到2005年时的25倍，而以不断贬值的美元衡量，其今年的收入将为2005年时的30倍。

百度已经在中国的互联网搜索行业占据主导地位，而由于其竞争对手谷歌公司(Google)因与中国政府发生矛盾而不得不限制自己的在华业务，百度今年第三季度在中国市场的占有率甚至更高了。据北京的市场研究公司易观国际(Analysys International)称，百度在中国互联网搜索行业收入中的占比今年第三季度又增加了三个百分点，达到73%，该公司的这一占比今年第二季度已经增加了六个百分点。

与此同时，谷歌在中国互联网搜索行业收入中的占比则从今年第二季度的31%下降到22%，而其他公司的占比则没有超过1%的。

但在高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析师米切尔(James Mitchell)看来，对百度业务推动最大的是其内部的一项技术措施，这项技术能鼓励广告客户在百度这里花更多的钱。此举与谷歌在美国的做法类似，举例来说，它能鼓励花店将自己在百度的广告不仅放置在“玫瑰”等关键词的搜索结果旁，还会放置在“情人节”等其他相关关键词的搜索结果旁边。米切尔说，其结果是百度的收入增长率如预期般加快，从去年的39%提高到今年的78%。该公司的运营利润率则提高到50%以上。

就发达程度和利润潜力而言，中国的电子商务要赶上美国的水平还有很长的路要走。

中国政府说，中国只有32%的人上网；发达国家的网民人数接近总人口的80%。据世界银行(World Bank)称，中国的国内生产总值(GDP)增幅今年预计会达到10%。而随着中国经济开始从过分依赖出口转为更多依赖国内消费，消费对中国经济的贡献率应将开始上升。

所有这些因素都将加大人民币的升值压力，从而推高百度折算成美元的利润。

运用一项简便易行的估值方法计算后可以发现，上述乐观因素已经反映在了百度的股价中。研究公司SearchIgnite的数据显示，谷歌的企业价值约为1,700亿美元，其美国业务略低于该公司总业务的一半，而它在美国互联网搜索市场收入中的占比约为80%。这意味着谷歌美国业务的价值为800亿美元。再假设中国经济的规模在四年内能增加到美国的一半，并假设百度能保持住在中国网络搜索市场的主导地位，那么就可以算出百度的企业价值约为400亿美元。而这仅比该公司目前380亿美元的企业价值高一点点。

但上述假设是有风险的。风险之一是中国的经济奇迹或许已经演变成了一个有可能破裂的信贷泡沫。此外，百度的竞争对手也有可能取得长足进展。百度在电子商务领域强有力的竞争对手阿里巴巴(Alibaba.com)虽然在网络搜索市场的占有率目前远低于百度，但凭借由微软公司(Microsoft)提供的搜索引擎，阿里巴巴有可能给百度的业务增长制造麻烦。最后一点，投资者不应忘记百度是在中国。其能取得多少利润最终要取决于中国共产党，而后者则有兴趣保持对互联网行为的密切控制。

在投资者赌定美元汇率将不断下跌以及快速增长的新兴市场将受到美联储(Federal Reserve)新一轮刺激政策的推动之际，他们预计将会对这些风险置之不理。但鉴于百度的股价已几乎是其明年每股收益的50倍，看涨百度的投资者面临着乐观过头的风险。