【英语科技】纳指大涨 美国科技股再度星光闪耀

If the stock market is heating up, then the technology sector is on fire.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index gained 18.6% during September and October, the biggest two-month rally since the end of April 2009, just as the market was bouncing off its lows. That trounced the 12.8% gain of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. The nearly six-percentage-point gap between the two is also the widest since April 2009.

The Nasdaq's outperformance, coming after several months of the index lagging behind the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has been juiced by many of the same factors that have driven the broader market.

Friday, stocks reached fresh two-year highs on a report of stronger-than-expected job growth for October. Worries about a double-dip recession have eased, thanks in large part to expectations -- fulfilled last week -- that the Federal Reserve will step in to help prop up the economy.

Tech stocks have gotten an added boost, though, from accelerating growth in overseas markets, which has led to increasing demand for computers and gadgets. As well, the new money that will be injected into the financial system, courtesy of a $600 billion bond-buying program planned by the Fed, has increased investors' appetite for risk, which has driven them to tech stocks.

When tech stocks are outperforming, it is usually a sign that the broad market has room to run.

'Tech stocks are often one of the top-performing sectors in the first part of a bull market,' says Jim Stack, president of InvesTech Research in Whitefish, Mont. 'The market is hitting on almost all cylinders.'

Some say the Fed has set the stage for a continued rally in the Nasdaq, which ended Friday at 2578.98, up 2.9% for the week, its highest close since January 2008. The Dow and the S&P 500 closed at their highest levels since September 2008.

By some measures, technology stocks are still considered relatively good value.

Tech stocks in the S&P 500 are trading at a price/earnings ratio of 13.9 times forward earnings, only slightly higher than the 12.7 times on the entire S&P 500.

And the tech sector, which usually has the highest P/E of the 10 S&P sectors, ranks sixth as of Nov. 2, according to Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at S&P. The top two sectors, telecommunication services and consumer discretionary, have P/Es of 14.7 and 14.3, respectively.

Tech P/Es are also well below the 21.9 average since 2003.

'Those are attractive valuations,' Mr. Silverblatt says. 'They're trading on much stronger fundamentals than the usual IT hype.'

Tech stocks are getting some added endorsements from Wall Street. Portfolio strategists have been boosting their allocation to tech stocks: Bank of America Merrill Lynch raised its recommended allocation to 20.5% from 19.8% on Nov. 3.

With tech stocks leading the way, other sectors should benefit. The same themes that are driving tech -- global growth and quantitative easing -- should also help sectors that benefit from growth abroad. Bank of America Merrill Lynch also raised its allocation of energy stocks to 12% from 11.5% as demand for oil from emerging-market companies should push their prices up.

But in some senses, the tech rally has been uneven. The Nasdaq has been pushed higher in part by stocks like Apple, which makes up 20.7% of the index, and Google, which accounts for 4.68%. In September and October, Apple gained 24% and Google added 36%. Laggards included Teva Pharmaceutical Industries' American depositary shares, which gained 2.5% during the same period.

Not everyone is convinced the outperformance can continue.
Doug Cliggott, U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse in Boston, points to slowing sales growth in computers and electronic products, where the rate of growth fell to 7.4% in September from 15.1% in August.

And Barclays Capital says technical indicators show the Nasdaq is probably due for a period of underperformance, especially given the wide gap in recent gains between the Nasdaq and the S&P.

Still, no one with memories of the late 1990s and early part of this decade is ready to call this a tech bubble.
The Nasdaq of the dot-com era was dominated by Internet companies with high stock prices and virtually no earnings. Back then, the index gained more than 85% in 1999, before topping out at 5132.50 in March 2000.

This time around, the leaders in the tech rally have profits to back up the enthusiasm. Tech-company profits grew 39% in the third quarter year-to-year, according to Thomson Reuters data, the fourth best among the 10 sectors it tracks. Sales, meanwhile, grew almost 21% from last year, the best of performance of any sector.

During the past 30 days, analysts have raised tech-stock earnings estimates by 1.5%, the largest increase of any sector, according to Thomson Reuters data.

It didn't hurt that speculation about new Fed stimulus since late August caused the dollar to fall 7.4% against a basket of currencies in September and October.

Tech stocks get about 55% of their revenue from overseas, and the falling dollar makes sales abroad that much easier.
'The world economy has been heating up nicely, and we've had a global-led rally,' says David Bianco, chief U.S. equity strategist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch. 'That's good for the Nasdaq.'

如果说股市正在强盛起来，那么科技股就是红得发紫。

Associated Press在9-10月期间，纳斯达克综合指数累计涨18.6%，创下2009年4月底股市从低点反弹以来的最高两个月涨幅，打败了标准普尔500指数同期内12.8%的涨幅。这两个指数近六个百分点的差距也是2009年4月以来最大差距。

过去几个月纳斯达克指数一直落后于标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数，但近期纳斯达克市场表现出色，这是受推动大盘整体走势的许多相同因素带动。

上周五美国股市升至两年新高，因10月非农就业报告强于预期。主要受美联储（FED）将采取措施推动经济增长的预期推动（上周已采取行动），人们对经济二次衰退的忧虑已减弱。

海外市场对电脑和电子设备需求上升，海外市场加速增长使美国科技股得到额外提振。另外新资金将被注入到金融体系中，承蒙美联储计划中的6,000亿美元债券购买计划帮助，提高了投资者的风险偏好，带动投资者介入科技股。

在科技股表现优于大盘的时候，这通常是整体市场还有上涨空间的信号。

蒙大纳州InvesTech Research总裁斯塔克（Jim Stack）说，在牛市初期，科技股通常是表现较好的一类股，股市正开足马力。

一些人说，美联储已为纳斯达克市场持续上涨作好了铺垫，上周五纳斯达克指数收于2,578.98点，全周共计升2.9%，创下2008年1月以来最高收盘点位。道琼斯工业平均指数和标准普尔500指数均收于2008年9月以来最高水准。

按照一些衡量标准，人们仍认为科技股具有相当高的价值。

标准普尔500指数中的科技股预估市盈率（P/E）为13.9倍，略高于整体标准普尔500指数的12.7倍市盈率。

根据标准普尔资深指数分析师西尔弗布拉特（Howard Silverblatt）说，科技股的市盈率通常在标准普尔10类股中最高，但截至11月2日其市盈率排名第六。排名最高的两类股，电讯服务和非必需消费品类股的市盈率分别为14.7和14.3倍。

科技股的市盈率也远低于2003年以来的均值21.9倍。

西尔弗布拉特说，科技股的估值较为诱人，它们的基本面远强于普通的IT股。

科技股得到华尔街人士的更多认可。投资组合策略师增加了科技股比重：美国银行-美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）11月3日将科技股推荐配置比重从19.8%提高至20.5%。

在科技股领涨的情况下，其他类股也应受益。带动科技股上涨的同样因素──全球经济增长和定量宽松政策──也应提振受益于海外经济增长的类股。美国银行-美林还将能源股比重从11.5%提高至12%，因新兴市场企业对石油的需求应推高能源企业股价。

但在某种意义上，科技股涨势不太均衡。纳斯达克市场部分是受苹果公司（Apple）和谷歌（Google）等股票上升推动。这两支股票在纳斯达克指数中的权重分别占20.7%和4.68%。9-10月期间，苹果公司股价涨24%，谷歌升36%。涨势落后的股票包括仿制药生产商梯瓦制药（Teva Pharmaceutical Industries）的美国存托凭证（ADR），同期内该股升2.5%。

并不是每个人都认为科技股的出色表现将持续下去。

瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）驻波士顿美国股票策略师克利格特（Doug Cliggott）指出，电脑和电子产品销售增长放缓，9月销售增长率从8月的15.1%降至7.4%。

巴克莱资本（Barclays Capital）说，技术指标显示，纳斯达克市场可能将在一段时间内表现逊于整体股市，尤其是鉴于近期纳斯达克指数和标准普尔500指数的涨幅差距较大的情况下。

对上世纪90年代末和本世纪初股市走势有记忆的人中，没人会把这叫作科技泡沫。

网络热潮时期的纳斯达克市场主要是由互联网公司主导，它们的股价较高，但基本上没有利润。1999年时纳斯达克指数累计涨逾85%，到2000年3月，指数升至5,132.50点的高位。

而这次科技股涨势中的领先企业具有支持人们热情的利润。根据汤森路透数据，第三季度科技企业获利较上年同期增长39%，在其追踪的10类股中，表现排名第四。科技企业销售较上年同期将近增长21%，为表现最好的类股。

根据汤森路透数据，过去30天中，分析师将科技企业获利预估调高1.5%，在各类股中增幅最大。

8月底以来人们对美联储财政刺激新政策的臆测导致9月和10月美元兑一篮子主要货币下跌7.4%，但获利预估没有打压这种臆测。

由于科技企业约55%的收入来自海外，美元汇率下跌使它们在海外的销售更加容易。

美国银行-美林美国股票首席策略师比安科（David Bianco）说，全球经济令人愉快地强盛起来，这是全球带动的股市上涨，有利于纳斯达克市场。