【英语科技】影响通用汽车股价的变数何在？

The bankers polishing up General Motors for its return to the stock market truly are used-car salesmen. The paintwork's shiny, but prospective buyers know the previous owners weren't that careful.

In a sense, this actually helps. Potential short-sellers must be nervous about the sensitivity of GM's valuation to many assumptions, especially after Tuesday's teasing increase of about 14% in the initial price range, to between $32 and $33.

For all its travails, GM remains the largest U.S. vehicle manufacturer by market share, has net cash, and has leading positions in growth markets such as Brazil and China. It is also profitable despite U.S. vehicle sales this year expected to be less than 12 million units.

The problem investors have is the sensitivity of GM's valuation. Ford Motor trades at about three times 2011 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, if you believe Morgan Stanley, or 4.5 times if you believe UBS. GM has a better global position than Ford. Against that, Ford doesn't have Uncle Sam as a shareholder. Take an average 2011 Ebitda estimate for GM of about $15 billion. Each half-point on the multiple equates to $7.5 billion of enterprise value, or nearly $4 a share. That is more than 10% of the indicated price range.

Other big factors are GM's retiree-benefit-plan deficit and its unconsolidated subsidiaries, such as its Chinese joint ventures. Tax-adjusted, GM's retirement deficits equate to $21.3 billion, according to CRT Capital Group, equivalent to about $11 a share.

This is a real liability and a wild card: CreditSights reckons a one-percentage-point decline in the discount rate applied to pension liabilities adds $12 billion before tax. Mitigating this, big mandatory payments don't kick in before 2014.

There is also value in GM's unconsolidated subsidiaries. CRT estimates GM's share of 2011 net income from these at $1.7 billion. At 12 times earnings, a 50% discount to the Chinese average, those earnings are worth $20.3 billion, or more than $10 a share. CRT values other assets including the finance arm at $4.6 billion.

Adding it all up shows the range of potential outcomes. Giving GM's 2011 Ebitda a multiple of 3.5 makes $52.5 billion. Adding estimated year-end net cash of $32 billion, less $10 billion for working capital, plus the value of the other assets gets to $100 billion before deductions. Subtract debt, tax-adjusted retirement deficits and preferred stock of almost $37 billion, and the remaining equity value is about $63 billion, or $32 a share.

The wild cards discussed suggest scope for a moderate first-day pop if optimism rules. But that is only if -- and it is a big if -- macroeconomic forces savaging financial markets, such as Europe's renewed crisis, can be held at bay. For all the retooling done in Detroit and Washington, GM's day-one price will partly be set by what is happening in Dublin.

将通用汽车(General Motors)打磨一新、然后送回股市的投资银行家真像是二手车经销商。油漆刷得口亮，但潜在买家知道原来的车主并没有那样小心养护。

从某种意义上来说，这样反倒有好处。通用汽车的估值很容易因为种种不同的假设而出现很大的变化，潜在的短线空头对此一定感到紧张，特别是在周二通用汽车像恶作剧一样，把最初定价范围提高约14%到32美元至33美元之后。

Getty Images通用汽车雪佛兰伏特虽然历经阵痛，通用汽车仍然是美国市场份额最大的汽车生产商，它还拥有净现金流，并在巴西和中国等成长型市场保持着领先地位。另外在今年美国汽车销量预计不足1,200万辆的情况下，通用汽车仍然实现了盈利。

投资者不放心的是通用汽车估值的易变性。福特汽车(Ford Motor)的股价，如果你相信摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的估计，那么它相对于2011年利息、税项、折旧、摊销前收益(Ebitda)的市盈率就是三倍左右，如果相信瑞士银行(UBS)，那就是4.5倍。通用汽车在全球市场的地位高于福特汽车。但福特的股东不包括政府。以通用汽车2011年Ebitda平均预估为150亿美元左右计算，每0.5倍的市盈率变动就等于75亿美元的企业价值变动，折合每股接近4美元，相当于定价范围的10%有余。

其他重要因素有通用汽车的退休金计划的赤字和它未合并的子公司，比如在中国的合资公司。据CRT Capital Group估计，经过税收调整后，通用汽车的退休金缺口为213亿美元，大约相当于每股11美元。

真正的风险和变数在于，据CreditSights估计，退休金负债的贴现率每减少一个百分点，就会使通用汽车的税前负债增加120亿美元。好在要到2014年才必须支付大笔款项。

另外还有通用汽车未合并子公司的估值问题。CRT估计，这些公司2011年净收入中通用汽车获得的部分为17亿美元。按中国平均市盈率的一半12倍计算，那么这些利润就相当于203亿美元的价值，折合每股10余美元。CRT估计，包括金融公司在内的其他资产价值为46亿美元。

全部加起来，就看到了潜在市值的范围。如果通用汽车相对于2011年Ebitda的市盈率是3.5倍，那么市值就是525亿美元。加上估计中320亿美元的年底净现金，拿出100亿美元当作运营资金，再加上其他资产的价值，算下来扣除各种项目前就是1,000亿美元。债务、税调后退休金欠款和优先股一共接近370亿美元，减去这一部分后剩下的股本价值就是630亿美元，折合每股32美元。

上面讨论到的各种变数意味着，如果乐观情绪占上风，那么首日交易中的股价可能会温和上涨。但其前提是欧洲新危机等不利于金融市场的宏观经济力量可以得到控制。尽管底特律和华盛顿做了大量的包装，通用汽车的首日价格仍将在一定程度上取决于都柏林发生的事情。