【英语科技】中央欲整合汽车业 地方不理会

Beijing is playing a now-familiar tune: China's auto industry needs to get leaner. The rest of the country isn't listening.

According to J.D. Power, nearly 80 manufacturers compete in the light-vehicle market alone.

The central government has long desired some rationalization of this sprawl, and this week, state media reported that the State Council has placed the auto sector at the top of a list of industries needing consolidation.

It isn't the first time the authorities have made such a call.

Last year, Beijing unveiled a grand plan to develop a core of auto groups to lead the domestic industry.

Since then, there has hardly been an avalanche of activity. The last big deal, Changan Auto's purchase of Hafei Auto and Changhe Auto, was announced late in 2009.

Beijing's logic is clear. A more streamlined sector will enable the larger companies to benefit from economies of scale and increased pricing power, in turn raising their profits available for reinvestment. Ultimately, that could help China develop a clutch of world-class car makers.

But it seems this isn't swaying local governments, which house the auto makers.

In a growing market where even small car makers are doing well, they provide employment, a measure of economic growth, and a source of tax revenue to local authorities. The type of consolidation Beijing wants could see some plants slimmed down or closed, with provinces in turn losing those benefits.

The resistance is justified, for now, by China's fast-rising auto sales.

Year-to-year growth may be slowing, but auto sales were still up 48% in the first half from a year earlier. Few analysts see anything other than continued expansion of car ownership in China in the coming years.

The central planners, then, are in need of a good crisis.

A drop in auto sales, which would reveal high levels of industry overcapacity and lead to losses among those too small to operate profitably in an environment of slower growth, would bolster its scheme.

At the moment, that seems far off.

Beijing may hope its car industry develops like the U.S.'s did in the 20th century, with a core of leading firms emerging from an initial plethora.

But then, that process did take about a century.

中国政府正唱着一个似曾相识的调子：中国的汽车业需要精简。而这个国家的地方政府并未仔细聆听。

根据研究公司J.D. Power的调查，仅在轻型汽车市场就有近80家生产商在竞争。

中国中央政府一直以来都期待这种杂乱的状况能够得到合理改善，本周，中国官方媒体报道，国务院将汽车产业放在了需要整合的产业名单之首。

中国政府并非头一次提出这种号召。

去年，中国政府公布了一个发展一部分核心汽车集团以引领国内汽车产业的重要计划。

后来几乎就没有什么大动作。上一次大的交易是2009末长安汽车收购哈飞和昌河。

中国政府的逻辑很清晰。更简化的产业将会促使较大的公司从规模经济和定价能力增强中受益，反过来提升其利润用于再投资。最终能够帮助中国发展一小撮世界一流的汽车厂商。

但是这看起来并未对庇护汽车制造商的地方政府起作用。

在一个小汽车厂商也能获益的不断增长的市场，他们为地方政府提供就业机会，为经济增长和税收收入做贡献。中国政府所希望的行业整合将会缩减或关闭一些工厂，这样地方政府就失去了上述好处。

考虑到中国快速增长的汽车销量，对政策的抵触目前看来是有道理的。

年增长也许在减缓，但是前半年的汽车销量相对于去年上涨了48%。同时分析师普遍认为在未来几年中国汽车拥有量将会持续上升。

中央政府需要的是一次幸运的危机。

汽车销量下降就是一个好机会，产量下降意味着产能严重过剩并将导致在放慢增长的环境中无法有利运营的小型企业遭受损失。

但目前看来这还遥不可及。

中国政府希望其汽车产业如同20世纪的美国一样发展，即从刚开始的大批厂商中涌现出一小部分先锋企业。

但那个时候，这个过程大约用了一百年时间。