【英语科技】电动车虽节能 前景不被看好

A well-known auto-industry forecasting firm suggested that the heavily promoted battery-powered vehicles about to appear on roads around the world are 'overhyped' and headed for a much slower takeoff then some auto makers and industry analysts expect.

In the new study Wednesday, J.D. Power & Associates said sales of electric cars are likely to remain low for the next several years and won't make up more than a small slice of the global market even 10 years down the road.

The combined sales total of hybrid cars such as the Toyota Motor Corp. Prius and all-electric models like the Nissan Motor Co. Leaf will come to just 5.2 million in 2020, J.D. Power said. That would represent just 7.3% of the global market in 2020, which J.D. Power sees reaching 70.9 million passenger vehicles then.

Some auto makers and other forecasters are more bullish. General Motors Co. and Nissan are spending billions of dollars to market electric cars they hope will become mainstream vehicles. The Chevrolet Volt, made by GM, and the Nissan Leaf are due to arrive in showrooms in the U.S. in the next few months.

A separate study by Boston Consulting Group sees hybrids and electric vehicles making up 26% of the global passenger car market in 2020. PRTM, another research firm, estimates the total may be closer to 30% as battery prices fall and the price of the vehicles comes closer to standard models.

Many countries around the world, including the U.S. and Israel, are supporting the introduction of electric vehicles with tax breaks and other financial incentives as part of an effort to reduce petroleum consumption and cut greenhouse gas emissions.

'Everybody feels that everybody else should be driving environmentally friendly vehicles. Although consumers generally want to be environmentally conscious, they are much more conscious of their personal economics,' said Dave Sargent, J.D. Power's vice president of automotive research. 'Right now, consumers have a lot of unanswered questions about the purchase premium of a hybrid or all-electric vehicle.'

J.D. Power said that without a sharp rise in fuel prices, a coordinated global governmental push or a technological breakthrough that lowers the cost of the cars, consumers are unlikely to adopt the vehicles. The researcher didn't find that any of these changes were very likely to happen.

J.D. Power pointed to consumer surveys to underpin its findings. Buyers didn't like the physical appearance and perceived performance of hybrids and worried about the limited range and the recharging times for all-electric models.

'Based on our research of consumer attitudes toward these technologies -- - and barring significant changes to public policy, including tax incentives and higher fuel-economy standards -- we don't anticipate a mass migration to green vehicles in the coming decade,' said John Humphrey, J.D. Power's senior vice president of automotive operations.

More than 20 electric vehicles are scheduled to go on sale in the U.S. in the next three years, and the U.S. government has backed $5 billion in investments for battery technology and consumer incentives to kick-start the market.

The alliance of Nissan and Renault SA has invested $4 billion in a suite of electric vehicles due out over the next several years, and it anticipates 10% of global industry sales in 2020 will be all-electric models. That would equal about seven million vehicles based on J.D. Power's industry forecast for sales in 2020.

J.D. Power estimates that the U.S. market in 2020 will account for purchases of 100,000 pure-electric cars in total, or about two-thirds of the annual U.S. sales of Toyota Prius hybrids last year. Hybrids will make up 1.7 million in sales that year under the forecast.

Bloomberg News一辆电动车正在充电。
知名汽车业调研公司J.D. Power & Associates暗示，大力推广的以电池为动力的汽车将出现在全球道路上，这有些“言过其实”，它们的起步速度将远低于一些汽车生产企业和行业分析师的预估。

J.D. Power & Associates在周三公布的最新研究报告中说，未来几年电动汽车的销量可能仍较低，即使在未来10年中，这种汽车在全球市场中仅会占较小份额。

J.D. Power说，丰田汽车（Toyota Motor Corp.）的普锐斯（Prius）等混合动力车及日产汽车（Nissan Motor Co.）的聆风（Leaf）等全电动汽车的2020年总销量将仅为520万辆，只相当于2020年全球汽车市场的7.3%，J.D. Power预计届时轿车销量将达到7,090万辆。

一些汽车生产企业和其他调研公司的态度则更加乐观。通用汽车（General Motors Co.）和日产汽车投资数十亿美元向市场推广他们希望成为主流汽车的电动汽车。通用汽车生产的Chevrolet Volt及日产汽车的聆风将在未来几个月出现在美国汽车展示厅内。

波士顿咨询公司（Boston Consulting Group）公布的另一项研究报告显示，混合动力车和电动车将在2020年占全球轿车市场份额的26%。另一家研究机构PRTM则预计，随着电池价格下降，以及这些汽车价格更接近标准汽车，它们的总体市场份额将逼近30%。

包括美国和以色列在内的许多国家，以减免税收和其他财政激励措施支持引入电动车，以此减少石油消耗并降低温室气体排放。

J.D. Power负责汽车研究的副总裁萨金特（Dave Sargent）说，人们都认为，其他人应该驾驶环保汽车，尽管消费者通常都有环保意识，但他们更关心个人的经济状况。目前对于混合动力车或全电动车的购买优惠措施，消费者仍有许多未解的问题。

J.D. Power说，如果燃料价格没有大幅上涨，全球各国政府没有联合推动环保汽车，或技术上没有实现重大突破降低汽车成本，那么消费者可能不会接受这些混合动力车和电动车，但研究人员没有发现上述因素可能发生。

J.D. Power指出消费者调查支持它的发现。买家不喜欢混合动力车的外观和实际性能，并担心全电动车的有限行驶里程和再充电时间。

J.D. Power汽车部门资深副总裁汉弗莱（John Humphrey）说，基于我们对消费者对于这些技术的态度的研究，除非包括税收优惠和节能燃料标准提高等公共政策出现重大调整，否则我们预计未来10年市场不会大规模转向环保汽车。

未来三年将有超过20种电动车计划在美国销售，美国政府支持向电池技术和消费者激励计划投资50亿美元，以快速启动这一市场。

日产汽车和雷诺汽车（Renault SA）组成的联盟已向一系列电动车投资40亿美元，这些电动车将在未来几年上市，该联盟预计2020年全球汽车销量中的10%将是全电动车。基于J.D. Power对2020年汽车业销售的预估，这相当于大约700万辆汽车。

J.D. Power预计，2020年美国市场将总计购买10万辆纯电动车，大约相当于丰田普锐斯混合动力车去年在美国的销量。2020年混合动力车销量将为170万辆，低于原先的预估。