【英语国际】全球大宗商品价格创新高

Strong demand for raw materials from emerging markets and a flood of money promised by the U.S. Federal Reserve are pushing commodities prices to new highs.

The broad rally has gained steam since the Fed indicated in late August it would inject money into the U.S. economy. But the gains also reflect a powerful rebound from the financial crisis in China and other fast-growing markets. These forces may send prices higher still, potentially putting pressure on poor importing nations.

The International Energy Agency's chief economist said Tuesday that China's needs could drive oil to $110 per barrel by 2015─a 27% premium to the current price. Also Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its harvest estimates for soybeans and corn, highlighting growing supply constraints.

'The underlying cause of this is strong emerging-market demand,' said Lawrence Eagles, analyst at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

Commodity prices largely continued a march toward new multi-year records. Copper climbed 2.2% Tuesday and is just pennies from an all-time high. Gold settled at $1,409.80, a new record, and cotton is at its highest in more than 140 years (though neither is near its inflation-adjusted peak). Corn has risen 22% in less than six weeks.

Some commodities eased back late Tuesday as investors locked in gains and exchanges indicated they may start making it costlier to trade raw materials. CME Group, an exchange operator, raised the minimum collateral investors need to post to trade silver futures: $6,500 per contract, up from $5,000. Silver is up 72% this year.

The reaction to the CME's move showed how skittish these markets can be. The most actively traded contract tumbled 7.3% in after-hours trading and sent ripples through other markets. Gold fell after hours, as did corn and crude oil, which remains near this year's high.

One trend driving the rally: robust demand from China and other emerging markets. Many of these countries are becoming wealthier, enabling them to buy more consumer goods and build infrastructure. At the same time, many analysts have questioned whether there is enough supply of key commodities on hand to satisfy growing demand.

Suppliers of metals like copper cut back production during the financial crisis─a pipeline that can take years to fill again. And brutal droughts and floods in Russia and Pakistan have dramatically reduced harvests, raising concerns about potential shortages and the possible impact of price spikes on the world's poorest consumers.

Layered onto those fundamental forces is a wave of fresh money being pumped into the markets by the Fed.

The Fed's latest $600 billion bond-buying plan is pushing yields on those bonds even lower, luring investors to assets that may offer better returns. Many are buying commodities, through futures markets and exchange-traded funds. Investors had a record $320 billion parked in commodities as of September, says Barclays Capital.

Treasury prices, in part, reflect the shift. The price of the 30-year Treasury bond tumbled almost 2% Tuesday, pushing its yield, which moves in the opposite direction of price, up to 4.25%, the highest since June 3.

The run-up is aided by the U.S. dollar's sustained fall, which further boosts commodities typically priced in the greenback.

'People are worried about the currency and don't know what to make of the environment, so they are heading for the hills, which involves investing in hard commodities which they can put away,' said Wayne Atwell, managing director of Casimir Capital, an investment bank specializing in commodities.

Yet the impact of U.S. monetary policy overseas also points to a risk that raw-material prices could stall or reverse. A weaker dollar may boost U.S. exports, but it could also undercut exports from rival nations─and thus trim their demand for materials. Pricier commodities can also stoke fears of inflation in countries where concern is already high.

China is set to release its consumer price index for October on Thursday, and analysts expect it will top 4%, higher than September's 3.6%. China recently raised interest rates, and a top Chinese central banker, Ma Delun, said Tuesday China will not leave inflation unchecked.

If emerging-market interest rates rise broadly, some gains spurred by the Fed 'will be erased,' said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity-markets strategy at BNP Paribas.

The steep price hikes hearken back to the first half of 2008, when oil, copper and other commodities rocketed to what proved to be unsustainable highs. When the U.S. real estate bubble burst and economies reeled, commodities plummeted.

The current price spikes also serve as a warning: If the U.S. economy does recover, miners, drillers and farmers may struggle to keep up with demand.

The International Energy Agency expects Middle East demand for crude oil to rise 4.1% this year, and Latin American demand to climb 4.7%.

Oil prices remain well below all-time highs hit in July 2008, and supplies appear relatively strong for now.

Copper, on the other hand, is in a 'secular bull market' due to strong demand growth from China and delays in bringing new mines to production, said Mr. Atwell of Casimir Capital.

Food markets also look tight. China will probably buy about one-third of the U.S. soybean crop, and the USDA said Tuesday inventories of corn and soybeans will fall sharply ahead of the 2011 harvest.

Prices for both crops are up this year, with corn rising 39% and soybeans 27%. The thin supplies and high prices are striking because the U.S. soybean crop is still forecast to be a record, while the corn crop is expected to be the third-largest ever.

'All across the board, demand is coming on as strong as ever from the developing and emerging nations of the world,' said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co., a Chicago commodity forecasting firm.

Associated Press美联储的经济刺激计划宣布后，铜和大豆的价格便开始飙升。
新兴市场对原材料需求旺盛及美联储（Fed）预示将大量印钞，带动大宗商品价格升至新高。

8月底美联储暗示将向美国经济注入资金以来，大宗商品价格全线涨势获得动力，但这一升势也反应中国和其他快速发展市场从金融危机中强劲复苏。这些因素或将推高物价，可能使贫穷的原材料进口国承受压力。

国际能源署（IEA）首席经济学家周二说，来自中国的需求将使油价在2015年前升至每桶110美元，较当前价格上涨27%。当天美国农业部（USDA）调降了大豆和玉米的收成预估，凸显供应越加紧张。

摩根大通（J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.）分析师伊格尔斯（Lawrence Eagles）说，当前这种情况的根本原因是新兴市场需求旺盛。

大宗商品价格大多朝着多年来的纪录水平持续上涨。周二铜价大涨2.2%，距纪录高位仅咫尺之遥。黄金收于1,409.80美元，创下纪录新高，棉花价格处于140多年来的最高点（不过上述价格都未接近经过通胀调整后的高位）。在不到六周的时间内，玉米价格累计涨22%。

周二尾盘一些大宗商品价格回软，因投资者获利了结，而且交易所暗示，可能将使交易原材料的成本更高。芝加哥商业交易所（CME Group）将银期货每张合约的最低保证金从5,000美元升至6,500美元。银价今年上涨72%。

市场对CME举措的反应显示这些市场有多么反复无常。在盘后交易中，银期货主力合约暴跌7.3%，而且也波及到其他市场。盘后交易中黄金、玉米和原油价格下跌，但原油价格仍接近年内高点。

推动这一涨势的一个趋势是：中国和其他新兴市场需求强劲。这些国家更加富裕，有能力购买更多消费品，并进行基础建设。与此同时，许多分析师质疑，实际上是否有足够的主要大宗商品供应来满足不断增加的需求。

铜等金属的供应商在金融危机期间降低了产量，这将需要数年时间来填补。俄罗斯出现的严重干旱和巴基斯坦的洪灾使农作物严重减产，令人担忧农作物或将短缺，以及担忧价格上涨对世界最贫穷消费者可能产生的影响。

在这些基本因素之外，是美联储正向市场注入大量新资金。

美联储购买6,000亿美元债券的计划正使这些债券的收益率降至更低水平，投资者被吸引到可能提供更高收益的其他资产。许多投资者正通过期货市场和交易所买卖基金（ETF）买入大宗商品。巴克莱资本（Barclays Capital）说，截至9月，投资者已将3,200亿美元投入大宗商品，创下纪录高位。

国债价格部分反映了这一转变。30年期国债价格周二下跌了近2%，导致与价格成反比的收益率上涨至4.25%，这是自6月3日以来的最高水平。

美元持续贬值也促使了价格上涨，进一步推高了通常以美元标价的大宗商品价格。

以大宗商品交易为主的投资银行Casimir Capital总经理艾特威（Wayne Atwell）说，人们对货币有担忧，不知道在这种状况中能获得什么好处，因此他们就选择逃避，转而投资能够长久储存的硬商品。

然而，美国货币政策在海外的影响也表明原料价格有停滞或逆转的风险。弱势美元也许会对美国出口有利，但同时也会削弱竞争对手国家的出口，从而降低他们对原料的需求。大宗商品涨价还会使已经对通货膨胀十分担忧的国家更焦虑不安。

Agance France-PresseIEA首席经济学家Faith Birol称中国需求将促使油价上涨。中国将于周四公布10月份的消费者价格指数，分析师预测将会超过4%，高于9月份的3.6%。中国最近提高了利率，中国央行副行长马德伦周二说，中国不会放任通胀加剧。

法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）商品市场战略主管基林吉瑞安（Harry Tchilinguirian）说，若新兴市场利率大范围升高，将会“抵消”美联储所引起的一部分价格上涨。

2008年上半年也出现过商品价格大幅上涨，当时石油、铜及其他大宗商品价格飞涨，但后来证明只是暂时现象。美国房地产泡沫破灭、经济逐步回升后，大宗商品价格急剧下跌。

目前的涨价现象也是一个警告：如果美国经济复苏，那么矿工、钻井工和农民要满足需求可能会十分困难。

国际能源署（International Energy Agency）预计，今年中东对原油的需求会增加4.1%，拉美的需求将攀升4.7%。

油价仍远远低于2008年7月所出现的最高水平，目前来看，供应似乎相对充足。

Casimir Capital.的艾特威说，另一方面，由于中国旺盛的需求增长及新矿开采延迟，铜处于“长期牛市”。

食品市场也十分畅旺。中国可能会购买美国约三分之一的大豆作物，美国农业部（USDA）周二说，玉米和大豆库存量将会在2011年收获季节之前大幅减少。

大豆和玉米的价格今年都有所上涨，涨幅分别为27%和39%。供不应求、价格较高的现象明显，因为美国大豆作物产量预计仍会创历史新高，而玉米产量将会达到历史产量第三高的水平。

芝加哥大宗商品预测机构AgResource Co.总裁贝斯（Dan Basse）说，总的来看，发展中国家和新兴市场国家的需求仍然像以前一样强势。