【英语国际】散户“傻钱”回流美国股市 随大流需谨慎

Individual investors are wading back into the U.S. stock market. That ought to make uber-bulls think twice.

Positive forces including strong corporate earnings, improving economic data and more bond buying by the Federal Reserve have fueled a 17% rally in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index since late August.

The market has now punched through its prior 2010 highs, set in April, to reach levels last seen in 2008 before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Predictably, that has also triggered a rebound in bullish sentiment and helped coax investors back into the market. The American Association of Individual Investors finds 48% of investors surveyed are bullish on stocks as of last week -- the highest level since February 2007. Bearish sentiment, at 27%, is at its lowest since January 2006.

And it appears their money is following suit. Roughly a quarter of recent flows into U.S. equity funds, including exchange-traded funds, have come from individual investors, according to EPFR Global. Since early September, such retail investors have poured about $2 billion into these funds, which have taken in about $8.4 billion.

That is a marked turnaround from the $23 billion yanked out of equity funds in August, when double-dip fears raged.

For now, this support could help the market extend its recent run. Yet it may also mean it is late in the rally game. Retail investors are usually a lagging indicator, reacting to past performance rather than predicting future gains.

Their flows, says Harvard University lecturer Owen Lamont, can create 'a short-term lift' but it rarely lasts beyond a few months. He and Andrea Frazzini of AQR Capital Management have written a series of papers together on this 'dumb money' phenomenon.

Admittedly, the flow of money from individual investors back into the market has been more a trickle than a flood -- from January 2009 through August, individuals pulled around $162 billion from equity funds.

Even so, a return of retail investors argues for caution. The prior high in sentiment this year came in late spring, just as the market was headed for a bruising selloff. It may not be wise to fight the Fed, but it can be just as ill-advised to follow the crowd.

Kelly Evans

散户投资者回到美国股市，这值得极度看多人士仔细考虑。

企业获利强劲、经济数据改善及美联储（Fed）买入更多债券等正面因素带动美股标准普尔500指数自8月底以来累计涨17%。

目前股市已升逾4月创下的年内高点，涨至投资银行雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）倒闭前的2008年高位。

可以预见的是，这带动看多人气回升，并帮助吸引投资者重新回到股市。美国散户投资者协会（American Association of Individual Investors）发现，截至上周，48%的受访投资者看多股市，这是2007年2月以来最高水平。看空股市的散户投资者比例为27%，为2006年1月以来最低。

他们的资金似乎也在跟风行动。根据基金追踪机构EPFR Global数据，近期流入美国股票基金（包括交易所买卖基金）的资金大约四分之一来自散户投资者。9月初以来，这些散户投资者已将约20亿美元投入这些基金，这些基金共计吸纳了大约84亿美元。

这标志着较8月走势的巨大转变。8月时有230亿美元撤出股票基金，当时人们极度担心经济二次探底。

目前这一形势将帮助股市延续近期涨势。不过这可能也意味着当前这波涨势已到后期。散户投资者通常是落后指标，他们对大盘过去表现作出反应，而不是预测未来涨势。

哈佛大学（Harvard University）讲师拉蒙特（Owen Lamont）说，散户资本流动可以产生短期提振作用，但很少超过几个月。他和AQR 资本管理公司（AQR Capital Management）的弗拉奇尼（Andrea Frazzini）曾就这一“傻钱”现象共同撰写过一系列文章。

无可否认的是，散户投资者回到股市的资金更像是涓涓细流，而不是洪水，从2009年1月至8月，散户从股票基金中撤出了约1,620亿美元。

即便如此，散户投资者的回流也值得小心。今年上次人气高涨是在春末，即在股市即将遭到大举抛售之前。对抗美联储可能是不明智的，但随大流同样也是不聪明的。

Kelly Evans

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