【英语国际】俄国总统“乘虚”登岛？

In 65 years, no Soviet or Russian leader bothered to visit four disputed islands north of Japan, called the Kuril Islands by Russia and the Northern Territories by the Japanese.

But on Monday, Dmitry Medvedev, Russian president, en route from a summit in Hanoi to Moscow, spent four hours touring one of the islands, inspecting a fish-packing plant and making the customary promises of more federal money and less bureaucracy before flying off again.

The otherwise innocuous visit raised a storm of protest from the Japanese. Tokyo claims the islands, which were conquered by the Red Army in the closing stages of the second world war, are Japanese.

Many in Moscow attribute domestic politics as the main reason for the visit – presidential elections are due in 2012 and Mr Medvedev wants a second term. “Medvedev wants to present himself as a tough guy, as well as someone who is open to the outside world,” said Dmitri Trenin, head of the Carnegie Moscow Center think-tank.

Mr Medvedev is deemed too pro-American for many in Russia, having eaten hamburgers with Barack Obama in Washington in June and supported UN sanctions against Iran.

He is also widely seen as the junior partner to Vladimir Putin, prime minister, who appears to be campaigning for his old job back, and whose patriotic tough guy credentials are beyond reproach.

With polls showing that 80 per cent of Russians favour keeping all four of the islands, the dispute offers Mr Medvedev an opportunity to stand up for his country’s interests. “It’s an issue that the majority of the people here feel very strongly about. And Medvedev wants to balance the image of the liberal pro westerner and take the middle ground,” Mr Trenin said.

Last week, according to a poll by the Levada Center, a research agency, Mr Medvedev’s approval rating was virtually level with Mr Putin’s for the first time – 77 for Mr Putin and 76 for Mr Medvedev.

Visiting the Kurils is the latest in a series of moves by Mr Medvedev in a month, indicating that he is trying to toughen up his image. The president promised during an October meeting with Hugo Chávez, his Venezuelan counterpart, to build a nuclear reactor for the South American state, provoking US criticism. Mr Medvedev’s island visit sparked speculation in Japan that he was trying to take advantage of perceived weakness following Tokyo’s diplomatic dispute with China over contested islands in the East China Sea. The conflict with China was caused by Japan’s arrest of a Chinese fishing boat captain who allegedly rammed Japanese coastguard vessels in territorial waters of the Senkaku Islands, which Beijing calls the Diaoyu group.

In what was widely seen as a diplomatic retreat, Japanese prosecutors released the captain after China halted a raft of political, cultural and economic exchanges and detained four Japanese citizens accused of videoing facilities in a military area.

The island visit added to pressure on Naoto Kan, Japan’s prime minister, to show that he can defend national interests. Opposition parties were quick to paint the visit as the result of an incoherent foreign policy by the Democratic Party of Japan. “This is a demonstration of the lack of diplomatic ability of the Kan administration,” said Nobuteru Ishihara, Liberal Democratic party secretary-general.

Russian commentators agreed that Japan’s weak diplomatic responses made it an easy target. “Japan’s foreign policy is in complete disarray,” said Alexander Panov, dean of the Russian diplomatic academy in Moscow and former ambassador to Japan from 1996-2003. “It is basically a case of Japan not wanting to recognise the results of world war II. Japan was the aggressor, and it lost territory. Under what justification do they want them all back?”

Russia is understood to have informally mooted a compromise, such as splitting the four islands, which Japan has refused.

65年来，没有哪位前苏联或俄罗斯领导人曾劳神视察过日本北部4个有争议的岛屿。俄罗斯把这4座岛屿称作“南千岛群岛”，日本称之为“北方四岛”。

但本周一，在参加完河内峰会返回莫斯科的途中，俄罗斯总统德米特里?梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)却在其中一座岛屿上逗留了4个小时，视察了一个鱼制品加工厂，并照例承诺将加大联邦资金投入，减少官僚作风，而后飞离该岛。

这次本应无伤大雅的视察在日本引发了一轮疾风骤雨般的抗议。东京方面声称，这四座苏联红军在二战末期攻占的岛屿，主权属于日本。

莫斯科方面的许多人士将此次视察的主要原因归结于国内政治：俄罗斯总统选举将于2012年启动，而梅德韦杰夫希望自己能获得连任。智囊机构莫斯科卡内基中心(Moscow Carnegie Center)负责人德米特里?特列宁(Dmitri Trenin)表示：“梅德韦杰夫希望表现得像个硬汉，以及一个对外部世界持开放态度的人。”

在俄罗斯，许多人认为梅德韦杰夫过于亲美——今年6月他曾与巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)一起在华盛顿啃汉堡包，并且支持联合国对伊朗实施制裁。

人们还普遍认为，梅德韦杰夫相比于俄总理弗拉基米尔?普京(Vladimir Putin)处于弱势。普京似乎正在为重新当选总统积极准备，而他的爱国硬汉形象是无可指摘的。

民调显示，有80%的俄罗斯人支持保留所有4个岛屿。有鉴于此，这场纠纷为梅德韦杰夫提供了一个为祖国利益挺身而出的机会。特列宁表示：“这是一个大多数俄罗斯人都强烈关注的问题。梅德韦杰夫希望借此弱化自己的亲西方自由派形象，站到中间立场上来。”

上周，研究机构勒瓦达中心(Levada Center)的民调显示，梅德韦杰夫的支持率首次与普京近乎持平——前者为76%，后者为77%。

视察南千岛群岛是梅德韦杰夫一个月来采取的一系列行动中最新的一个，表明他正试图让自己的形象变得更为强硬。在今年10月与委内瑞拉总统乌戈?查韦斯(Hugo Chávez)的会晤中，梅德韦杰夫承诺为这个南美国家建造一座核反应堆，招致了美国的批评。梅德韦杰夫此次视察南千岛群岛引起了日本的猜测，认为他企图利用日本与中国就东海有争议岛屿发生外交纠纷后明显较为疲弱之机，从中捞取好处。日本与中国的纠纷起因于日本逮捕了一名中国渔船船长，指称这名船长在尖阁群岛（中国称钓鱼岛）海域驾船撞击日本海岸警卫队船只。

在中国暂停与日本的一系列政治、文化和经济往来、并拘留了4名被控在中国军事区拍摄军事设施的日本公民后，日本检方释放了上述队长。外界普遍认为，这是日本的一次外交撤退。

梅德韦杰夫的此次视察，增加了菅直人(Naoto Kan)面临的压力，这位日本首相必须证明自己有能力捍卫国家利益。日本反对党很快就把此次视察描绘为日本民主党外交政策自相矛盾的结果。自民党干事长石原伸晃(Nobuteru Ishihara)表示：“这表明了菅直人政府缺乏外交能力。”

俄罗斯评论人士一致认为，日本软弱的外交回应使其成为一个容易对付的目标。莫斯科俄罗斯外交学院(Russian diplomatic academy)院长、曾在1996年至2003年任俄罗斯驻日本大使的亚历山大?帕诺夫(Alexander Panov)表示：“日本的外交政策混乱不堪。从本质上讲，这就是日本不想承认二战结果的一个案例。日本当时是侵略者，丢失了领土。他们现在有什么理由把失去的领土都要回去？”

据信，俄罗斯曾非正式地向日本提出过一个妥协方案，比方说两国分占四岛，但遭到了日本的拒绝。

译者/汪洋