【英语国际】调查：逾半美国民众反对自由贸易

The American public, already skeptical of free trade, is becoming increasingly hostile to it.

Across the country, politicians are responding accordingly, and that is clouding prospects for congressional approval of pending free-trade pacts with South Korea and Colombia. It is also prompting concern among U.S. businesses reliant on the rest of the world for growth.

In the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, more than half of those surveyed, 53%, said free-trade agreements have hurt the U.S. That is up from 46% three years ago and 32% in 1999.

Even Americans most likely to be winners from trade -- upper-income, well-educated professionals, whose jobs are less likely to go overseas and whose industries are often buoyed by demand from international markets -- are increasingly skeptical.

'The important change is that very well-educated and upper-income people compared to five to 10 years ago have shifted their opinion and are now expressing significant concern about the notion of . . . free trade,' said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who helps conduct the Journal survey. Among those earning $75,000 or more, 50% now say free-trade pacts have hurt the U.S., up from 24% who said the same in 1999.

Worries about side effects of trade and outsourcing seem one of the few issues on which Americans of different classes, occupations and political persuasions agree. The vote in the House last week to arm the administration with more levers to pressure China to let its currency rise, and thus restrain its export machine, was bipartisan: 249 Democrats and 99 Republicans voted for it.

While the rhetoric may be heated by approaching congressional elections, the sentiment isn't likely to disappear after November. 'We are entering a very dangerous period in which we could actually slip backwards and see the undoing of some of the progress that has been made in recent decades toward a more open world economy,' said William Galston, a former adviser to President Bill Clinton now at the liberal-leaning Brookings Institution think tank in Washington.

The rising hostility seems a delayed reaction to a slow economic recovery and high unemployment. To many, China has replaced Wall Street as the villain du jour. Opposition to trade is fueled by reports that many U.S. multinational companies, sitting on huge stockpiles of cash, are reluctant to invest in the U.S. and are looking overseas, and by the fact that China has pulled out of the global slump much faster than the U.S.

In the recent Journal poll, 83% of blue-collar workers agreed that outsourcing of manufacturing to foreign countries with lower wages was a reason the U.S. economy was struggling and more people weren't being hired; no other factor was so often cited for current economic ills. Among professionals and managers, the sentiment was even stronger: 95% of them blamed outsourcing.

Generally, businesses and economists argue that free-trade pacts help America. 'When we knock down barriers in those markets, we create jobs here,' said Myron Brilliant, senior vice president for international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. 'We've got to trade to create jobs in our country.'

本已对自由贸易持怀疑态度的美国公众越来越对自由贸易持反对意见了。

全国政界人士都在回应这种民意。美国与韩国、哥伦比亚待定的自由贸易协定能否得到国会批准，因此变得不确定起来；依赖世界其他地区实现增长的美国企业，也对此感到忧虑。

在《华尔街日报》和NBC新闻最近所做的调查中，超过一半、即53%的受访者说，自由贸易协定已损害美国利益。三年前这一比率为46%，1999年为32%。

即使那些最可能从自由贸易中受益的美国人也越来越持怀疑态度。他们是收入较高、受过良好教育的专业人士，其工作不太可能外包给海外市场，所在的行业通常受到国际市场需求的提振。

共和党民调人士麦金塔夫（Bill McInturff）说，重要的变化是，较之5-10年前，那些受过良好教育、收入较高的人群已转变了看法，目前他们对自由贸易的概念表示了极大的忧虑。麦金塔夫帮助《华尔街日报》进行了调查。在年薪为75,000美元或以上的人群中，目前50%的人说自由贸易协定已经损害了美国的利益，高于1999年时24%的比率。

自由贸易和外包的副作用，似乎是美国不同阶层、职业和政治派别的人一致担心的问题。美国众议院上周投票赋予美国政府新的手段迫使中国允许人民币升值，以抑制中国出口，两党都给予了支持：民主党249票、共和党99票支持该法案。

国会做出这种姿态，可能是因为11月国会选举日益临近，但在选举过后，这种情绪可能不会消失。美国前总统比尔•克林顿（Bill Clinton）前顾问高尔斯顿（William Galston）说，我们将进入一个非常危险的时期，期间我们实际上可能退步，让过去几十年为实现世界经济更加开放而取得的一些进步功亏一溃。高尔斯顿目前在具有自由倾向的华盛顿智库布鲁金斯学会（Brookings Institution）工作。

不断加剧的敌意似乎是对经济复苏缓慢和失业率高涨的滞后反应。对许多人来说，中国已代替华尔街成为当前的罪魁祸首。媒体报导说，坐拥大量现金的许多美国跨国企业不愿对美国投资，正将目光投向海外，而且实际上中国已较美国更快地走出了全球经济衰退的阴影，这些都引发了许多美国人对自由贸易的反对。

在《华尔街日报》的这次调查中，83%的蓝领工人认为，将制造业外包给工资较低的外国企业是美国经济举步维艰、失业人数上升的一个原因；在解读导致当前经济问题的原因中只有这个因素被这么频繁地使用。在专业人士和企业高管中，这种情绪更加强烈：95%的人将经济问题归因于业务外包。

概括来说，商界人士和经济学家认为自由贸易协定有利于美国。美国商会（U.S. Chamber of Commerce）负责国际事务的高级副总裁布里连特（Myron Brilliant）说，当我们推倒那些市场的壁垒时，就为美国国内创造了就业机会；要在国内增加就业，就得进行贸易往来。