【英语国际】欧洲足球进入战国时代

Historically, European football's major leagues have been dominated by just two or three teams. Elite clubs such as Barcelona, Manchester United and Bayern Munich have large fan bases, big stadiums and, in many cases, global followings, and exploit these advantages by outspending their league rivals to guarantee success.

The names at the top rarely change and most finishing positions are a foregone conclusion by the end of October. Which is a shame, considering the season ends in May.

But the storyline in the first two months of the new European season is how the most rigid class system in professional sports is showing signs of a historic collapse. Thanks to everything from the sluggish economy to the fallout from last summer's FIFA World Cup, this season has been hell on the office pool.

All across Europe, the mighty are falling: Liverpool, the most successful English club in history, is one place off the foot of the Premier League table; Deportivo, one of Spain's most decorated teams, is 19th in the 20-team top flight; while Bayern Munich, which has won almost half of all Bundesliga titles in Germany, is 10 points off top spot.

At the same time, there are signs of a level-playing field emerging: Just five points separate the top six teams in Italy and Spain, while the sixth-placed club in England's Premier League is West Bromwich Albion, which only a few months ago was playing in the second tier.

In other words, an era of parity in European football that for so long seemed impossible is starting to look like a reality.

'This season, from game to game, is a crapshoot,' said John Barnes, a former Liverpool player and now a football analyst. 'We've seen so many unpredictable results, not just in England, but in Spain, Italy, Germany and it's not surprising when you look at the table and see everybody is bunched up.'

For most of the past two decades, European football has been a place where the rich get richer and the middling simply middle away. But through the first two months of the season, Europe's leading clubs are clumped together in unprecedented fashion.

In England, Chelsea's return of 19 points from eight games equals the lowest tally for a league-leading club in a decade, while the eight-point gap between Manchester United in fourth and West Ham United at the foot of the table is the second smallest since the Premier League's inception in 1992, according to London-based betting analysts Bettorlogic.

It's a similar story in Italy, where Lazio's total of 16 points is the second-lowest figure for a Serie A leader in the past 14 seasons. Even Spain's La Liga, which looked like the most predictable league in Europe last season as Barcelona blazed to a record-breaking points total and second-placed Real Madrid finished 25 points clear of Valencia in third, is showing signs of balance. The country's top four teams are separated by just a single point, the slimmest margin in 14 years.

'The gap between the top teams and the rest is closing,' said Peter Shilton, a former England goalkeeper and an ambassador for the country's 2018 World Cup bid. 'Everywhere you look, the top teams are so tightly bunched together and it's impossible to say who's the favorite [for the championship]. Everyone is in with a shot.'

Pundits are at a loss to explain football's shifting fortunes, but much of it can be ascribed to just one factor -- last summer's World Cup.

The best players in the world, who mostly play for the best teams in Europe, have been playing football pretty much without a break for the best part of 16 months. As a result of this almost ceaseless schedule, many are broken and bruised -- mentally, if not physically.

It's also true that some of the stumbling giants are working through a period of upheaval: AS Roma, runner-up in Italy last season but currently 13th, is poised for a change of ownership. Fiorentina, another perennial contender but now bottom of the table, is adapting to a new coach. Liverpool, which has recorded only one win all season, has gone through a change of ownership while adapting to a new coach.

But there is another perspective to explain this new era of parity. The struggles of some of Europe's biggest clubs may have less to do with injuries and instability and more to do with economics. Simply put, parsimony is in vogue in boardrooms right now.

As football clubs shake off the effects of the sluggish economy, the total transfer spending of Europe's major clubs dropped 39% during the summer window, figures from the talent agency IMG Worldwide show. And as economics shift, so too does the hierarchy of the game.

Previously, when a small or middling club unearthed a good player, the top teams would simply buy them. This summer, that didn't happen and some of the most sought-after players in Europe stayed put.

Real Madrid openly courted Fernando Llorente, but the Spanish striker remained at Athletic Bilbao. Bosnian superstar Edin Dzeko was wanted by pretty much every big club, but none was willing to meet Wolfsburg's asking price. Even France's Ligue 1, which has watched its biggest stars depart each summer for 20 years, managed to retain the coveted trio of Loic Remy, Yoann Gourcuff and Pierre Andre Gignac.

'The credit crunch has had a major effect,' said Tony Cottee, a former West Ham player. 'Teams didn't spend colossal amounts this summer, so the smaller teams were able to keep hold of their best assets and they've improved.'

The result: The sport has become more competitive, and teams like Manchester United and Arsenal can no longer bludgeon the opposition with their checkbooks.

Through the first seven games of the Premier League season, the three newly promoted sides had collected a combined total of 28 points, the second-highest tally of the past decade, according to analysis by Castrol, an official sponsor of the UEFA European Championship.

The same is true across Europe: Castrol data show that only one of the 14 promoted sides in the top five European leagues this season is currently in the relegation zone, while their average league position is 11.6, or mid-table.

'The league is closing up a little bit,' said Fabrice Muamba, the Bolton Wanderers midfielder. 'The quality is levelling out and you know that if you have an off day and the other team is up for it, they will beat you.'

Oddsmakers have been thrown into disarray. 'If you're an odds-compiler, a tipster or a trader, it's very uncomfortable right now,' said Russ Wiseman of Irish betting exchange BetDaq. 'Playing the lesser teams isn't the cakewalk it used to be and so many results this season have been completely implausible. Maybe we're looking at whole new age of football.'

Agence France-Presse西布罗姆维奇队的Gonzalo Jara（左）在9月25号与阿森纳的比赛中进球后与队友庆祝。

从历史上看，欧洲职业足球的霸主地位一直都掌握在两三支球队手里。巴塞罗那(Barcelona)、曼联(Manchester United)和拜仁慕尼黑(Bayern Munich)之类的精英足球俱乐部不但拥有众多球迷、大型的体育场馆以及全球媒体的关注，而且懂得充分利用自身优势，投入比竞争球队更多的资金，以便确保自己的领先地位。

名列各职业联赛榜首的球队很少发生变化，每年的10月末，最后的排名就已经在很大程度上见了分晓。这是一件很可惜的事情，因为赛季要到第二年五月份才结束。

然而，在这个赛季的头两个月中，人们看到，欧洲职业足球最牢不可破的等级体系已经出现了前所未有的崩溃信号。受到经济不景气以及去年夏天世界杯足球赛(FIFA World Cup)的余波影响，本赛季的许多比赛结果令人大跌眼镜。

在欧洲各大赛场，足球强队纷纷倒下：史上最成功的英国足球俱乐部利物浦队(Liverpool)在英超联赛(Premier League)中排名倒数第二；拉科鲁尼亚(Deportivo)是西班牙风头最劲的球队之一，如今却在20支顶级联赛队伍中排名第19；拜仁慕尼黑曾经把将近一半的德甲联赛冠军收入囊中，现在却离冠军位置有10分之遥。

与此同时，有迹象显示，各个球队的水平正在拉近。意大利和西班牙联赛的第一名和第六名只差5分，几个月之前还在打英冠的西布朗维奇队(West Bromwich Albion)却排到了英超第6位。

换言之，欧洲足球正在进入一个势均力敌的战国时代。这种局面一直都是人们心目当中的天方夜谭，如今却似乎正在变成现实。

曾在利物浦队效力、现从事足球赛事分析的约翰·巴恩斯(John Barnes)说，这个赛季的每场比赛都让人琢磨不透。我们看到了那么多出乎意料的比赛结果，不仅是在英国，西班牙、意大利和德国也是如此。如此说来，各个球队的成绩相差不大也就不足为奇了。

近二十年来，欧洲足球的格局一直是强的越来越强、弱的越来越弱。但是，本赛季的头两个月当中，欧洲顶级球队却史无前例地选择了扎堆于平庸。

伦敦博彩分析公司Bettorlogic的数据显示，在英国，十年来引领英超联赛的切尔西队(Chelsea)八场比赛仅积19分，交出了有史以来最差的一份成绩单；而排名第四的曼联队与垫底的西汉姆联队(West Ham United)仅相差8分，是英超自1992年开始以来差距第二小的成绩。

在意大利，情况也差不多。拉齐奥队(Lazio)积16分，是这支甲级强队过去14个赛季来倒数第二的成绩。西甲联赛(La Liga)上一个赛季的名次最容易预测，因为巴塞罗那队的积分打破了历史最高纪录，排名第二的皇家马德里队(Real Madrid)也以25分的优势遥遥领先于排名第三的瓦伦西亚队(Valencia)；但是，本赛季几个队势均力敌，第一名和第四名只差1分，是14年来咬得最紧的一次。

前英格兰队门将、英国申办2018世界杯形象大使皮特•希尔顿(Peter Shilton)说，强队和弱旅之间的鸿沟正在缩小。不论你把目光转向哪里，都能看到顶级球队紧紧扎堆的现象，根本看不出谁能笑到最后。哪个队只要多进哪怕一个球，就有可能因此夺冠。

专家们无法解释足球的王者之风为何开始转向，但一大部分原因可以归结于一个因素--去年夏天的世界杯。

全世界最好的球员大多在欧洲的顶级球队中效力，在过去16个月的大多数时间里，他们一直在马不停蹄地踢球。在几乎无休无止的赛程安排下，许多球员都伤病缠身--不是在身上，就是在心里。

此外，一些步履蹒跚的大牌俱乐部巨头正在经历一个阵痛时期。上个赛季的意甲亚军罗马队(AS Roma)正在酝酿易主，本赛季目前位居第13位。另一支意甲劲旅佛罗伦萨队(Fiorentina)还在与新教练进行磨合，目前处于垫底的位置。利物浦队刚刚换掉了老板和教练，到目前也只赢了一场比赛。

不过，我们还可以从另一个角度来诠释新格局的形成。一些欧洲大牌俱乐部之所以举步维艰，与球员伤病以及控制权不稳关系不大，但却与经济低迷有很大关系。简而言之，各俱乐部的董事会都在提倡勒紧裤腰带过日子的做法。

球星经纪公司国际管理集团(IMG Worldwide)提供的数据显示，为摆脱经济低迷所带来的影响，欧洲各大俱乐部今夏的转会费总额下降了39%。经济形势发生了变化，足球王国的格局也在随之改变。

以前，如果某个中小俱乐部出现了一名好球员，顶级球队就会直接将其买下。今年夏天，这种情况并未发生，欧洲最热门的一些球员依然在母队原地不动。

皇家马德里队向费尔南多•洛伦特(Fernando Llorente)发出了公开邀请，这名西班牙前锋却还是留在了毕尔巴鄂竞技队(Athletic Bilbao)。每个大俱乐部都想挖波斯尼亚的超级球星埃丁•泽科(Edin Dzeko)，但却没有哪个俱乐部愿意接受沃尔夫斯堡队(Wolfsburg)开出的价钱。过去20年中，法甲联赛(Ligue 1)每个夏天都得眼睁睁地看着自己最好的球员转投他国，今年却居然留住了热门的三剑客罗伊克•雷米(Loic Remy)、约恩•古尔库夫(Yoann Gourcuff)和皮埃尔•吉尼亚克(Pierre Andre Gignac)。

前西汉姆联队球员托尼•科蒂(Tony Cottee)说，信贷紧缩已经产生了很大的影响。今年夏天，各个球队都没有投入巨资去买球员，小一点的球队因此保住了自己最好的球员，在比赛中的表现也就有所改善。

由此而来的结果是：球赛变得更为激烈，曼联和阿森纳(Arsenal)之类的大牌球队也不能再用支票簿去砸晕自己的竞争对手了。

根据欧洲冠军联赛(UEFA European Championship)官方赞助商嘉实多公司(Castrol)的统计，在英超本赛季的头七场比赛中，三支升班马球队共收获了28分，是过去十年来排名第二的高分。

欧洲各地的情况都差不多。嘉实多的数据表明，在本赛季的欧洲五大联赛中，14支升班马球队当中只有一支目前处于降级区，它们的平均排名是11.6，换句话说就是位居中游。

博尔顿队(Bolton Wanderers)中场球员法布莱斯•姆万巴(Fabrice Muamba)说，英超球队之间的差距比以前小了一些。各支球队的水平正在拉近，一场比赛发挥不好，对手就会抓住机会把你打败。

赌球者被搞得有些不知所措。爱尔兰博彩交易所BetDaq的威斯曼(Russ Wiseman)说，如果你是赌球的庄家、情报贩子或交易员，现在一定会有水深火热的感觉。战胜弱队不再像以前那样易如反掌，本赛季很多比赛的结果都令人难以置信，也许，我们正在进入一个全新的足球时代。