【英语国际】澳洲印度双双加息反击通胀

India and Australia raised interest rates Tuesday to fight inflationary pressure, underscoring the delicate balancing act Asia's fast-growing economies face as the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to add to the global money supply.

India's move to tighten monetary policy was expected amid rising food prices and a surge in economic growth driven by rising domestic demand.

Australia's move -- which surprised markets, sending its currency to a new 27-year high against the U.S. dollar -- was the result in part of a China-driven mining boom that has boosted sales of its iron ore, coal and other minerals.

The actions come as central bankers in the U.S. and Japan move in the opposite direction, trying to jump-start their sluggish economies. Short-term interest rates are near zero in both countries and likely to remain there for a long time. On Wednesday, at the end of a two-day meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to announce a plan to print hundreds of billions of dollars to buy long-term U.S. Treasury debt, injecting more money into the economy in an effort to push down long-term interest rates and push money into riskier assets, such as stocks.

That stance is prompting global investors to shift money to emerging markets with higher interest rates and more robust growth, a development that is pushing up their currencies and assets markets and prompting warnings of incipient bubbles.

India's and Australia's central bank moves follow China and Singapore, which also tightened policy in recent weeks.

Others in the region, such as South Korea and New Zealand, have postponed rate increases after earlier moves amid uncertainty over the global outlook.

The Reserve Bank of India said it sees little need for additional increases near term as its tighter monetary policy acts to bring down the inflation that has plagued Asia's third-biggest economy after China and Japan.

The central bank raised the repurchase rate, or lending rate, by a quarter of a percentage point to 6.25% and the reverse repurchase rate, or borrowing rate, by the same amount to 5.25%.

It also tightened rules for residential home loans, saying a 'sharp rise in asset prices in such a short time causes concern.'

Strong domestic demand helped shield India's economy from the worst of last year's global downturn and a brisk pickup in growth has given the bank room to ratchet up interest rates steadily to fight inflation. Finance Secretary Ashok Chawla said the 'modest increase' in policy rates Tuesday is unlikely to derail India's firming economic growth.

Montek Singh Ahluwalia, who heads the government's main think tank, said he thinks inflation -- which was above 10% from March to May -- will continue to slow.

'By the time December data is available, you will see food inflation has moderated very significantly,' said Mr. Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of the Planning Commission.

Others expect further rate increase. Credit Suisse expects another three-quarter percentage points of increases, with the next quarter-point move in January. Brian Jackson, senior emerging markets strategist at Royal Bank of Canada, expects the central bank will lift the repo rate by another three-quarter points in 2011.

'The Indian tightening cycle is certainly not over yet,' said Glenn Maguire, Asia chief economist at Societe Generale.

The Reserve Bank of Australia tightened policy for the first time in six months in a pre-emptive strike to stave off looming inflation pressures. Markets had pointed to a weaker-than-expected report on Australian third-quarter inflation last week.

But the RBA said surging terms of trade are boosting national incomes 'very substantially,' with the outlook for inflation also expected to rise.

'The Board concluded that the balance of risks had shifted to the point where an early, modest tightening of monetary policy was prudent,' RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement.

The bank raised its cash rate target by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75%.

Australia is one of the clear stand-out economies after leading the world in 2009 and 2010 by raising rates despite a still-subdued global economy. 'It's the expansionary shock from terms of trade and the chance inflation will rise over next year that they are battling. It's a pre-emptive move,' said Stephen Roberts, chief economist for Nomura in Sydney, one of a small number of economists to predict Tuesday's hike.

The move prompted Commonwealth Bank of Australia to raise variable home-lending rates by 0.45 of a percentage point. That move could mean the RBA will have less need to tighten more in the near term, especially if Australia's lenders follow suit.

It could also increase political pressure on lenders there. Australia's Treasurer Wayne Swan described CBA's move as a 'cynical cash grab' and pledged to outline a package next month designed to spur competition in the bank sector.

Representatives for Australia's other largest banks -- Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., National Australia Bank Ltd. and Westpac Banking Corp. -- would say only that their lending rates are under review.

The Australian dollar on Tuesday rose as high as US$1.0023, its highest level since it began floating freely in 1983. Monday afternoon in the U.S., it traded at $0.9993.

印度和澳大利亚周二提升利率抗击通货膨胀，在美联储(Federal Reserve)预计将增加全球货币供应之际，加息之举凸显亚洲各个快速增长的经济体需要掌握的微妙平衡。

Bloomberg News印度尼西亚雅加达，一名商贩在市场出售大米。在食品价格上涨、内需增加推动经济增长加快的情况下，印度收紧货币政策的措施在人们的预料之中。

澳大利亚的加息措施则出乎市场意料，推动澳大利亚元对美元涨至27年新高。加息的部分原因是中国需求拉动的矿业繁荣提高了铁矿石、煤炭和其他矿产品的销量。

此时美国和日本的央行正在走一条相反的道路，努力启动它们各自停滞不前的经济。两国短期利率都接近于零，并有可能长时间保持在当前水平。美联储一场为期两天的会议于周三结束，会后预计会宣布，它计划发行数千亿美元钞票购买美国长期国债，向经济体注入更多资金，从而压低长期利率，把资金推入股票等高风险资产。

这种立场正促使全球投资者把资金转移到利率更高、增长更旺的新兴市场，因而提振了这些经济体的汇率和资产市场，并拉响泡沫乍现的警报。

印度和澳大利亚央行加息之前，中国和新加坡也于近几个星期收紧了货币政策。

韩国和新西兰等本地区其他国家在早前加息过后，因为全球前景不确定而推迟了加息。

印度储备银行(Reserve Bank of India)说，它认为，随着收紧货币政策起到降低通货膨胀的作用，短时间内基本没必要进一步加息。作为中国、日本之后亚洲第三大经济体的印度近来饱受通货膨胀之苦。

印度央行将回购利率（即贷出利率）提升0.25个百分点至6.25%，同时将逆回购利率（即借入利率）提升同样的幅度，达到5.25%。

印度央行还收紧住房贷款规则，说如此短时间内资产价格大幅上升让它担忧。

强劲的国内需求帮助印度经济避开了去年全球衰退最严重的阶段，而经济增速充满活力的反弹，使其央行具备了稳步加息以遏制通胀的空间。印度财政部财政秘书朝拉(Ashok Chawla)说，周二政策利率的“温和提升”不太可能搅乱印度越来越稳固的经济增长。

印度政府主要智库负责人阿卢瓦利亚(Montek Singh Ahluwalia)说，他认为通货膨胀将继续放缓。印度3月份到5月份的通胀率都在10%以上。

印度国家规划委员会（Planning Commission）副主席阿鲁瓦利亚说，12月份前数据将出炉，那时人们将会看到食品通胀已明显放缓。

其他机构预计印度将进一步升息。瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）预计将再升息0.75个百分点，下次将于明年1月升息0.25个百分点。加拿大皇家银行（RBC）新兴市场资深策略师杰克逊（Brian Jackson）预计，印度央行将在2011年把附买回利率再调高0.75个百分点。

法国兴业银行（Societe Generale）亚洲首席经济学家马圭尔（Glenn Maguire）说，印度升息进程肯定还没有结束。

澳大利亚央行（Reserve Bank of Australia）六个月来首次紧缩货币政策，以先发制人的攻击对抗隐现的通胀压力。澳大利亚上周公布了第三季度通胀报告，市场认为该报告弱于预期。

但澳大利亚央行说，贸易条件的大幅上升使国民收入大幅增加，通胀前景也料将上升。

澳大利亚央行行长史蒂文斯（Glenn Stevens）在声明中说，央行政策委员会认为风险平衡状态已发生转变，应审慎地提早实施适度从紧的货币政策。

澳大利亚央行将隔夜拆款利率目标提高0.25个百分点至4.75%。

尽管全球经济仍迟滞不前，但澳大利亚是2009年和2010年首先在全球升息的国家，该国目前是表现明显出色的经济体之一。野村证券（Nomura）驻悉尼首席经济学家罗伯茨（Stephen Roberts）说，他们正在对抗的是贸易条件扩张性冲击和明年通胀几率上升，升息是先发制人的行动。罗伯茨是少数几位此前预计澳大利亚央行周二将升息的经济学家之一。

升息推动澳大利亚联邦银行（Commonwealth Bank of Australia）将可变房屋贷款利率调高0.45个百分点。此举可能意味着澳大利亚央行短期内不太需要再次紧缩货币政策，尤其是假如澳大利亚各银行跟风升息的话。

这或许将增加澳大利亚银行业的政治压力。该国国库部长韦恩•斯万(Wayne Swan)将澳大利亚联邦银行的举动形容为“见利忘义的抢钱行为”，并誓言下月规划出一个一揽子提案，旨在刺激银行业的竞争。

澳大利亚其他最大银行──澳新银行（Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.）、澳大利亚国民银行（National Australia Bank Ltd.）和西太平洋银行（Westpac Banking Corp.）的代表会说正在审查他们的贷款利率。

周二澳元兑美元最高升至1.0023美元，这是自1983年澳元开始自由浮动以来的最高水平。纽约汇市周一午后1澳元兑0.9993美元。