【英语国际】拒绝正视现实的法国人？

If there was an informal European Union championship for street protest then Greece and France would be the two most regular winners. Greek and French workers have traditionally staged strikes and demonstrations with a gusto and frequency that puts their European rivals in the shade.

Last week, both countries were at it again. In Greece, striking workers blocked access to the Acropolis in protest against job losses and were dispersed by riot police with teargas. Demonstrations in France against efforts to raise the retirement age also gathered momentum, with millions taking to the streets.

The French seem to enjoy strikings. Last week there was a slightly festive air – with flags, drums, torches, chants and even fancy dress on display. There is something faintly ridiculous about schoolchildren striking to protect their pensions, which makes it tempting to dismiss all this as street theatre and to assume that the real decisions will be made elsewhere. But that would be a mistake. The French strikes are causing serious disruption to the economy, with a threat that the country could soon run short of petrol.

The battle for Europe’s future is already taking place at another level. There is the argument in government ministries and the smoke-free conference rooms of Brussels, as politicians and bureaucrats attempt to define new continent-wide rules to ensure Europe does not slip back into a new and debilitating debt crisis. But the future of the European economy and its single currency is more likely to be decided on the streets.

Efforts to rescue Europe from its debt problems through new EU regulations were being fiercely debated in Brussels on Monday. But most of the proposals on the table are unrealistic and likely to fail. Since the EU will not be able to impose fiscal discipline from the centre, it will have to be done country by country.

Naturally, Europe’s leaders do not accept that their efforts to redraft EU rules are doomed to fail. But if you look at the proposals doing the rounds, it is hard to draw any other conclusion. The EU’s original stability and growth pact, which was meant to constrain national budget deficits, disappeared in a puff of smoke in 2003, when it became clear that neither France nor Germany was willing to accept the rule that they should be fined by the EU for running budget deficits larger than 3 per cent of gross domestic product.

And yet, deficit-hawks – in particular in Germany – are now pushing for even harsher sanctions on countries running excessive deficits. Once again, the idea of fines for debtors is being mooted – except this time they should be “automatic”. There will be no wriggling out of this bondage version of the stability and growth pact. The Germans are also keen that countries running deficits much in excess of 3 per cent of GDP should lose their voting rights within the EU. Under current circumstances that would mean most members of the Union would have to sit mutely around the table, unable to have a say in vital decisions. France, currently running a deficit of about 8 per cent of GDP, would definitely lose its vote. Try explaining that to President Nicolas Sarkozy.

The threats of EU fines or the suspension of voting rights, however earnestly made, are essentially empty. But one threat is effective – and seems to work on both the politicians and the public. That is the threat of national bankruptcy.

If countries really hit the bottom – if they discover that the markets will not lend to them anymore – then reality bites and the hard slog of restoring budgetary discipline begins. The EU has been reluctant to test this theory for fear of “contagion” as national crises spread across Europe. But what experience we have suggests market disciplines will be far more effective than new EU rules.

In that respect, the stories of Greece and France – for all their superficial similarities – are actually quite different. The Greeks came perilously close to national default this year. But, in response – and after securing loans from the International Monetary Fund and the rest of the EU – Athens got serious. Over the past year, Greece has halved its budget deficit and formulated plausible plans to head for budget balance. The government has faced down street protests and kept going. The possibility of an eventual partial debt default remains. Even so, Greece has pushed through fiscal and labour market reforms that would have been unthinkable a couple of years ago.

The French people, by contrast, still do not seem to realise the potential gravity of their situation. Their government’s proposal to raise the retirement age from 60 to 62 is an extremely mild reform – certainly compared with the cuts in wages, pensions and services that are being forced through in other debt-stricken European countries such as Greece, Spain, Ireland and even Britain. And yet France’s proposed reforms have brought millions of demonstrators on to the streets.

It may need a genuine fiscal crisis finally to persuade the French that, as Margaret Thatcher once put it: “There is no alternative.”

如果欧盟(EU)举办非正式的街头抗议锦标赛，最常胜出的想必是希腊和法国。希腊和法国工人罢工和示威的频率和热情让其他欧洲国家望尘莫及。

上周，这两个国家又动员了起来。在希腊，罢工的工人们为了抗议工作岗位减少而封锁了雅典卫城的交通，被防暴警察用催泪瓦斯驱散。法国抗议提高退休年龄的示威活动也愈演愈烈，数百万人走上了街头。

法国人似乎很享受罢工。上周甚至还出现了一点节日气氛，旌旗招展、鼓声震天，人们举着火把高喊口号，甚至穿着盛装招摇过市。有些荒唐的是，连上学的儿童都上街捍卫自己的退休金，不禁会让人觉得这些不过是街头表演，真正的决策是在别处做出的。但事实并非如此。法国罢工对经济造成了严重干扰，甚至可能很快就会让经济陷入停滞。

为欧洲未来的战斗已经在另一个层面打响。争论已经在政府各部门和布鲁塞尔的无烟会议室中展开，各国政界人士和政府官员正试图制定涉及整个欧洲大陆的新法规，确保欧洲不会滑入新一轮削弱实力的债务危机。然而欧洲经济及其单一货币的未来更可能由街头政治决定。

周一在布鲁塞尔，各方就依靠欧盟新法规将欧洲从债务问题中挽救出来的努力展开了激烈辩论。但谈判桌上的提案大多不切实际，前景堪忧。欧盟无法从中央实行财政纪律，只能一个国家一个国家地实行。

自然，欧洲各国领导人无法接受重新起草欧盟法规的努力必然会失败的局面。但只要了解一下讨论的提案，就很难得出其他结论。欧盟旨在限制各国预算赤字的《稳定与增长公约》(Stability and Growth Pact)在2003年就失去了效力，当时法国和德国的预算赤字超过了国内生产总值(GDP)的3%，但显然都不愿意接受因此被欧盟罚款的裁定。

然而，赤字鹰派人士——尤其是在德国——正在推动对赤字过高的国家实施更严厉的制裁。对债务国罚款的主意再次提交讨论，但这一次是“自动”罚款。想逃避修改版本《稳定与增长公约》的处罚是不可能的。德国还力主预算赤字超过GDP 3%的国家应当被剥夺在欧盟的投票权。目前的状况下，这意味着欧盟多数成员国只能静坐在谈判桌前，对重大决策毫无发言权。现在法国的预算赤字约为GDP的8%，必然会失去投票权。试着去向法国总统尼古拉?萨科奇(Nicolas Sarkozy)解释吧。

欧盟罚款或暂停投票权的威胁再信誓旦旦，也不过是一句空话。但国家破产的威胁则是实实在在的——不论是对政治人物还是对公众。

如果一些国家真的触底，如果他们发现市场再也不愿向其贷款，残酷的现实便会迫使这些国家开始恢复预算平衡的艰难过程。欧盟顾虑国家危机在欧洲蔓延的“传染”现象，因而迟迟不愿试验这一理论。但我们现有的经验显示，市场纪律远比欧盟法规更为有效。

如此说来，希腊和法国的情况表面上虽然相似，实际上却相差甚远。希腊今年几近沦落到国家违约的危险境地。但在获得国际货币基金组织(IMF)以及其他欧盟国家的资助后，雅典开始认真应对。过去一年，希腊将预算赤字削减了一半，并为实现预算平衡制定了看似可行的方案。虽然遭遇街头抗议，但政府未改初衷。最终部分债务违约的可能性仍然存在，即使如此，希腊仍然推行了财政和劳动市场改革，这在一两年前是不可想象的。

相反，法国人似乎仍未意识到他们的状况会有多么严峻。希腊、西班牙、爱尔兰乃至英国等其他债务深重的欧洲国家，被迫采取了削减工资、降低退休金、减少公共服务等举措。与之相比，法国政府提议将退休年龄从60岁提高到62岁的改革措施极其温和，而这些措施竟导致数百万民众上街示威。

或许需要一场真正的财政危机才能说服法国人，就像撒切尔夫人(Margaret Thatcher)曾说过的那样：“别无选择。”

译者/王柯伦