【英语国际】分析：美国印钞将加大亚洲热钱压力

Growing expectations that a fresh round of quantitative easing looms in the US and Singapore’s decision to tighten monetary policy sent the dollar to multiyear lows against several Asia-Pacific currencies.

Thursday’s demand for the currencies – which also contributed to a stock market rally – adds to the dilemma facing the region’s fast-growing economies, which face pressure to allow their currencies to appreciate and fear that surging inflows could destabilise their economies.

The dilemma stems from an intensifying dispute between the US and China, with the former calling for faster renminbi appreciation, and the latter blaming US monetary policy for potentially destabilising flows into emerging markets. The situation is set to be further complicated should the US move forward, as expected, with what has been dubbed QE2, which would release even more liquidity, much of which could end up in Asian emerging markets.

“It’s basically the dollar getting destroyed,” said Christian Carrillo, a strategist at Société Générale.

The Reserve Bank of India has intervened in the foreign exchange market at least three times during the past fortnight to prevent the rupee appreciating against the dollar, including on Thursday, traders said.

Duvvuri Subbarao, governor of the Reserve Bank of India, said in Washington last week that there were occasions when it might have to intervene in the foreign exchange market if capital flows disrupted the economy.

Most Asian central banks have been buying dollars to slow the rise of their currencies, dealers said. Intervention has added more than $250bn to Asian foreign exchange reserves during the past quarter, with about $120bn of that in September alone, according to BNP Paribas analysts.

Singapore’s surprise decision to widen its trading band against a basket of currencies contributed to a wider US dollar sell-off. The Singapore dollar hit a high of $1.2826, while the Australian dollar reached near parity with the greenback, touching A$0.9982.

China’s central bank set the renminbi reference rate against the dollar at a new high on Thursday. The renminbi has risen 2.5 per cent against the dollar since June when Beijing cut its de facto peg to the currency.

The yen briefly broke through levels of Y81 against the dollar for the first time since April 1995.

有关美国将开始新一轮定量宽松货币政策的预期日益高涨，外加新加坡决定收紧货币政策，导致美元兑亚太多国货币汇率跌至多年新低。

周四对亚太货币的需求也是股市反弹的原因之一，这种需求让亚太地区快速增长经济体面对的两难局面进一步恶化。这些经济体面临要求其允许本国货币升值的压力，同时又担心资金流入激增会破坏本国经济的稳定。

这种两难局面源自美中两国日益激化的分歧，美国要求人民币加速升值，中国则指责美国的货币政策有可能造成大量资金流入新兴市场，破坏当地的经济稳定。如果美国如外界所预期的实施第二轮定量宽松货币政策（即所谓的QE2），事态势将进一步复杂化。QE2将释放出更多流动性，其中相当大部分可能流入亚洲新兴市场。

“这基本上是美元被逐渐摧毁的过程，”法国兴业银行(Société Générale)策略师克里斯蒂安?卡瑞罗(Christian Carrillo)表示。

交易商表示，过去两周里，印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)为防止印度卢比兑美元升值，已经至少三次干预汇市，其中包括周四的一次。

印度央行行长杜武里?苏巴拉奥(Duvvuri Subbarao)上周在华盛顿表示，在某些情况下，如果资金流动扰乱了经济形势，印度央行可能不得不对汇市进行干预。

交易商表示，大多数亚洲央行一直在买入美元，以放缓本币升值的速度。据法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)的分析师表示，干预行动已经导致上个季度亚洲外汇储备增加逾2500亿美元，其中仅9月就增加了1200亿美元左右。

新加坡扩大新加坡元兑一篮子货币交易区间的突然决定，引发了更广泛的美元抛售现象。新加坡元汇率触及1美元兑1.2826新加坡元的高点，与此同时，澳元几乎与美元平起平坐，汇率达到1澳元兑0.9982美元。

中国央行周四将人民币兑美元的参考汇率上调至新高。自6月份中国政府取消实际上盯住美元的汇率制度以来，人民币兑美元已经升值2.5%。

日元汇率短时突破1美元兑81日元的点位，这是1995年4月份以来的首次。

译者/管婧