【英语科技】谷歌：欲股票上涨 先用好资金

Just how cheap is Google stock? That partly depends on whether investors can trust Google to spend its cash pile wisely.

With its stock down nearly 30% since the start of the year, compared with the S&P 500's 8% drop, the search giant confronts a multitude of well-documented challenges. These include its shift from hot growth stock to value play, the impact of the falling euro, Google's cloudy future in China and competition from Facebook.

Google finance chief Patrick Pichette was on the East Coast meeting with investors a few weeks ago, his first such effort. There is no sign those meetings did much to change sentiment. But investors shouldn't ignore Google's positives. The search company is arguably better-positioned than most to profit from the shift to mobile advertising, given its success in establishing Android as a force in smartphones and its purchase of ad firm AdMob. There is the potential upside from Google's push into display advertising. And Google has foreign-currency hedges in place to offset much of the impact of the stronger dollar.

Even so, on the surface Google isn't necessarily quite cheap enough to lure value investors. At its Thursday close of $439.49, Google was at 17.7 times consensus 2010 earnings, including the cost of stock compensation.

The question is how to treat Google's cash, which stood at $26.5 billion, including investments, on March 31. That could have risen above $28 billion by now, or about $88 a share.

Excluding the cash puts Google's operating business at about 14 times 2010 earnings, only a slight premium to the broader market at nearly 13. For a company expected to increase revenue 21% this year and 15% next year, that may be undervalued. But does excluding cash make sense? It might if investors could be assured that Google would use the cash wisely, through a return of cash to shareholders or value-enhancing acquisition. Given Google's tendency to pursue multiple initiatives in different directions while looking for a new growth business, investors may rightly worry about the chance of an ill-conceived big deal. It is hard to criticize Google's past acquisitions, such as its $3.2 billion cash purchase of DoubleClick, which helped expansion into display advertising, or the $1.65 billion stock purchase of YouTube. Thursday's $700 million cash purchase of travel software firm ITA Software may prove as savvy. Still, it is when pressure mounts, as is the case now, that companies are most likely to stumble.

For Google to overcome the prevailing bearish mood, it needs a catalyst. Success with a new business would be best. Short of that, unveiling a big stock buyback or a dividend would make sense. If nothing else, it would assure investors the cash won't get blown on a silly deal.

谷歌公司(Google)的股票目前有多便宜？这在一定程度上要取决于投资者是否相信谷歌能明智地使用其丰厚的现金。

今年谷歌股价下跌已近30%，而同期标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)下挫幅度为8%。谷歌这位搜索引擎巨头面临大量确确实实的挑战，这包括谷歌由高成长股转向价值股、欧元下跌的影响、谷歌在华运营前景的不确定性，以及来自Facebook的竞争。

谷歌首席财务长皮切特(Patrick Pichette)几周前在东海岸与投资者进行了会面，这是他第一次进行这种会面。没有迹象表明这对改变投资者的情绪能有多大效果。但投资者不应忽视谷歌的积极态度。谷歌成功地研发出Android智能手机操作系统，并购买了手机广告服务公司AdMob，相比大多数公司而言，谷歌无疑更具有从转向手机广告业运作中受益的有利条件。谷歌介入显示广告业会给股价带来上行潜力。此外，谷歌还有良好的外汇对冲以抵消美元走强产生的大部分影响。

即便如此，从表面上看，谷歌股价并非足够便宜能吸引价值投资者。谷歌股价周四收于439.49美元，为2010年市场一致预期收益的17.7倍，股票补偿成本包括在内。

问题是如何对待谷歌截止3月31日包括投资在内高达265亿美元的现金。目前这笔资金可能已增加至280亿美元以上，约合每股88美元。

若这笔现金不计在内，则谷歌运营业务基于2010盈利的市盈率约为14倍，仅比更广的市场近13倍的市盈率略有溢价。对于谷歌这家收入预计今年增长21%、明年增长15%的公司而言，这可能有些低估。但不计现金是否有道理呢？也许吧，如果投资者确信谷歌将正确使用这笔现金的话，如向股东返回现金分红，或者进行增值性并购。鉴于谷歌寻求新的增长性业务，倾向于采取多方位的多种举措，投资者担心可能出现有失考虑的大型交易也是有道理的。谷歌此前斥资32亿美元现金购买了DoubleClick，借此向显示广告业扩展业务；还以价值16.5亿美元的股票购买了YouTube，这些收购交易都没什么可批评的。谷歌周四以7亿美元现金购买旅游软件公司ITA Software或许是明智的。但正如目前状况所示，当压力上升时，诸多公司股价很可能下滑。

谷歌要克服当前的普遍看跌情绪，则需要一个催化因素。新业务获得成功当然是最好的了。或者，进行股票大批回购或分红也会起作用。如果没有别的办法，谷歌应使投资者们确信这笔丰厚的现金不会因愚蠢的交易而化为乌有。