【英语科技】分析：让人失望的智能本

As recently as six months ago expectations were high that smart books would take the market for mobile computing devices by storm.

Industry executives were predicting that dozens of models would hit the market, claiming that the new technology would challenge netbooks as the fastest-growing segment of the PC industry.

“The smart book market has the potential to be as large as, or to exceed, the netbook market,” Ninis Samuel, director of consumer marketing at Lenovo, the Chinese PC maker, predicted in January at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

Richard Beyer, chief executive of chip company Freescale, predicted that 30 smart books would be launched in the first quarter of 2010.

Six months on, however, and the smart book has failed to live up to those expectations. Instead, after the initial success of Apple's iPad, interest has shifted to tablet PCs.

Smart books were meant to bridge the gap between smartphones and laptop computers, offering a cheap, mobile device with a long battery life and constant internet connectivity. Smart books run on low-powered chips produced by Arm, the UK-based technology group, and operate using free, Linux-based operating systems like Google's Android.

Smart books signified the first major push by Arm to break into the traditional PC market that is dominated by Intel chips.

Yet speaking at last week's Computex trade show in Taipei, Tudor Brown, president of Arm, questioned the future of smart books: “Whether smart books as you think of it will still exist as a product category in a few years' time, I don't know.”

Sharp's Netwalker remains the only major smart book model on the market. And while Hewlett-Packard still plans to sell the Compaq Airlife smart book, Lenovo last month said it had shelved its plans to release the initial version of the Skylight smart book.

“We're all disappointed with how the smart book and tablet market has developed over the past year or so,” says Jen-hsun Huang, chief executive of Nvidia. Mr Huang had intended for his Arm-based Tegra processors to power smart books.

Analysts and industry executives say the smart book failed because of a lack of software and operating system support. Microsoft was not particularly interested in developing a cheaper version of Windows for low-cost smart books, and Google's Android was not developed enough to be a viable alternative.

“We didn't really have an operating system to use” last year, says Mr Huang. He adds, however, that recent improvements to Android mean that device and chip makers now “finally have an operating system to unite behind”.

Joseph Hsu, chairman of MSI, the fast-growing Taiwanese PC company, says one of the problems is that it was never made clear how consumers were meant to use smart books.

“Take a notebook, net book, or a smart book. What's the usage model? It seems smart books were more [marketed on] price competition,” says Mr Hsu.

Chris Wei, senior industry analyst at the Market Intelligence & Consulting institute in Taipei, says poor timing also played a role. Device makers were “facing some pressure from the poor economic situation last year” and were therefore more conservative about trying to market a new product, he says.

Spurred on by a recovery in consumer demand at the start of the year, some companies were about to push smart books but their plans were derailed when Apple announced it was launching the iPad.

Mr Wei says many brands reacted by simply adapting their original smart book designs into tablet devices. “If you take away the outer casing it's basically a smart book inside,” he says.

就在6个月前，对于智能本将在移动计算设备市场掀起一股风暴，人们还寄予厚望。

当时，业内高管预计将有数十款智能本陆续上市，并宣称，这种新技术将挑战上网本作为个人电脑(PC)行业增长最迅速市场的地位。

尼尼斯•塞谬尔(Ninis Samuel)是中国PC制造商——联想(Lenovo)的消费者营销总监。1月份的时候，他在拉斯维加斯消费电子展(Consumer Electronics Show)上预测：“智能本市场的规模有可能赶上甚至超越上网本市场。”

芯片公司飞思卡尔(Freescale)首席执行官理查德•拜尔(Richard Beyer)此前预测，2010年一季度将有30款智能本上市。

然而，6个月过去了，智能本却未能实现上述预期。相反，在苹果(Apple) iPad首发成功后，人们的兴趣已转向了平板电脑。

开发智能本的初衷，在于弥补智能手机与笔记本电脑之间的空档，提供一种电池寿命较长、不间断在线连接的廉价移动设备。智能本采用的是英国科技集团——Arm制造的低功率芯片，利用基于Linux的免费操作系统（如谷歌的Android）进行操作。

智能本标志着Arm首次大举进军英特尔主宰的传统PC市场。

不过，在上周台北国际电脑展(Computex)上发言时，Arm总裁都德•布朗(Tudor Brown)对智能本的未来提出了质疑：“智能本是否会像我们想象的那样，在几年后仍作为一种产品类别存在，我也不知道。”

夏普(Sharp)的Netwalker仍是市场上唯一的主要智能本款型。此外，尽管惠普(Hewlett-Packard)仍计划出售Compaq Airlife智能本，但联想上月表示，已搁置推出首款Skylight智能本的计划。

英伟达(Nvidia)首席执行官黄仁勋(Jen-hsun Huang)表示：“对于智能本与平板电脑市场在过去一年左右时间里的发展，我们所有人都感到失望。”黄仁勋此前计划用其基于Arm的Tegra处理器，作为智能本的驱动器。

分析师与业内高管表示，智能本之所以失败，是因为缺乏软件与操作系统支持。微软(Microsoft)对开发用于低成本智能本、较为廉价的Windows版本不是特别感兴趣，而谷歌的Android，则尚未成熟到可作为切实可行的替代品。

黄仁勋表示，去年“我们实际上没有可以使用的操作系统”。但他补充称，Android近期的改进意味着，现在“终于有了一个操作系统可把（设备制造商和芯片制造商）结合起来”。

发展迅猛的台湾PC厂商——微星科技(MSI)的董事长徐祥(Joseph Hsu)表示，问题之一在于，对消费者来说，智能本的用武之处在哪里——这一点始终没有得到明确解答。

徐祥表示：“就拿笔记本、上网本或智能本来说，（智能本的）使用模式是什么？看上去，智能本（的卖点）更多是在价格优势。”

台北产业情报研究所(MIC)资深分析师魏传虔(Chris Wei)表示，择时不佳也是导致智能本未获成功的原因之一。他表示，“由于经济形势不佳，（设备制造商）去年承受了一定压力”，因此，它们对于在市场上推出新产品持更为保守的态度。

受今年初消费者需求回升的鼓舞，有些公司正准备在市场上推出智能本，但它们的计划却因苹果宣布推出iPad而夭折。

魏传虔表示，许多品牌的应对之举，只是修改了原有的智能本设计，把它们变形为平板电脑设备。他表示：“如果你取下外壳，里面其实就是一台智能本。”

译者/何黎