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2010-5-30 06:04
I have always been curious about two things. First, why are traffic jams always heavier on Mondays than on other weekdays? Second, I wonder why traffic is heavier when it rains. I know drivers get more cautious on rainy days, but even when it rains so little that I can hardly feel the raindrops, the traffic gets a lot heavier than on sunny days. Why?
Confused commuter, South Korea Dear commuter, I began by checking the data, and they surprised me. Inrix, who supply data to in-car satellite navigation systems, reports that the worst mornings of the week – in the US, at least – are actually Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Monday and Friday are low-congestion mornings. Friday evenings are bad, but Monday evenings are particularly quiet. My guess is that Monday is a popular day to take a holiday or call in sick. As for data on rain, two Australian academics have found that the heavier the rain, the lighter the traffic in Melbourne. You are asking me to explain two illusory phenomena. So what is going on? One possibility is that things are different in Korea, but I am not so sure: I think that Australians, Americans and we Brits all share your perceptions that rainy days and Mondays are bad for traffic. And we seem to be wrong. I think we need to turn to psychology for our answers. Norbert Schwarz – a psychologist who is well known to economists thanks to his work with Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman – has famously showed that if you want people to tell you that their lives are a wreck, just ask them on a rainy day. There is also some psychological evidence that Monday mornings depress us, too. In short, rainy days and Mondays always get you down. You're living in a Carpenters song, but please don't blame the traffic. 有两件事情一直让我感到好奇。第一,为什么周一的交通拥堵总是比其它工作日更严重?第二,我想知道为什么下雨时交通更拥堵。我明白,司机在雨天开车更小心,但即使是雨小得连雨滴都几乎感觉不到,交通仍要比晴天时拥堵得多。这是为什么呢?
感到困惑的通勤族,韩国 亲爱的通勤族, 我首先查阅了一下数据,这些数据令我备感意外。为车载卫星导航系统供应数据的Inrix公司报告称,早晨拥堵最严重的实际上是周二、周三和周四——至少对美国来说如此。周一和周五早晨的拥堵情况较轻。周五晚上很拥堵,但周一晚上的路面却特别安静。我猜,人们喜欢在周一休假或请病假。 至于雨天的数据,两位澳大利亚学者发现:雨越大,墨尔本的交通越顺畅。你肯定会要我解释这两种让人产生错觉的现象。 那么,这到底是怎么回事呢?一种可能是,韩国的情况与别处不同,但我对此表示怀疑。我想,澳大利亚人、美国人和我们英国人与你一样,都认为雨天和周一不利于交通。而我们的感觉似乎是错误的。 我认为,我们需要求助心理学来寻找答案。心理学家诺伯特•施瓦茨(Norbert Schwarz)在经济学界声名显赫,这要归结于他与诺贝尔奖得主丹尼尔•卡尼曼(Daniel Kahneman)之间的合作。施瓦茨曾绝妙地指出,如果你想从人们嘴里听到他们的生活是一团糟,那么你只需在一个雨天去询问他们对生活的看法。还有一些心理学证据显示,周一的早晨也会使我们感到压抑。 简而言之,雨天和周一总会让人心情低落。你是生活在卡朋特(Carpenters)一首歌曲(Ra4iny Days and Mondays)所描写的情绪中,请不要为此责怪交通。 译者/汪洋 |