【英语中国】中国居民通胀预期高企

A new poll by Horizon Research Consultancy Group, China's largest polling firm, finds 60.8% of respondents believe China is experiencing 'serious' inflation, a disquieting finding which suggests China's inflation problem may be more severe than official statistics indicate.

Public perceptions of inflation are important, because inflationary expectations can become self-fulfilling. If consumers anticipate future price rises, they may accelerate their planned purchases, and may take savings out of low-yielding investments like bank deposits, thus adding to inflationary pressures.

Over 77% of respondents to the Horizon poll said they expect prices to rise further over the next year, with 57.7% saying they expect 'stable increases' while a not-insignificant 19.5% expect 'large increases.'

Interestingly, only 45% of those polled felt China's official inflation expectations reflect their personal experience, while 44.7% felt they did not, suggesting that many members of the public feel the official statistics understate the extent of price rises.

The results are consistent with a central bank survey of bank depositors released last week. (http://www.pbc.gov.cn/detail.asp?col=3D100&id=3D3660) The People's Bank of China found that 58.9% of depositors described the overall price level as 'high and difficult to accept,' a 10-year high. In the survey, 70.3% of depositors expected prices to be higher in the second quarter than in the first.

China's National Bureau of Statistics said earlier this month that the country's consumer price index rose 3.1% in May from a year earlier, for the first time exceeding the government's official target for inflation not to exceed an average of 3% for 2010. But government and private-sector economists generally expect the headline inflation rate to fall in the second half of the year due to a higher base of comparison in the year-earlier period, and lower raw-material prices.

中国最大的调查企业零点集团发布的最新调查结果显示, 60.8%的受访者认为中国正经历着“严重的”通货膨胀，这一令人不安的结果暗示，中国的通胀问题可能比官方统计数据显示的更加严重。

Reuters南京一个菜市场的猪肉摊公众对通胀的看法较为重要，因为通胀预期可以自我实现。如果消费者预计未来物价上涨，他们或将加速进行计划中的采购，并可能将存款从银行储蓄等低收益投资中撤出，这样将加剧通胀压力。

接受零点集团调查的超过77%的受访者表示，他们预计明年物价将进一步上涨，57.7%的受访者认为，他们预期物价将“平稳上涨”，而有19.5%的受访者认为物价将“大幅上涨”。有意思的是，只有45%的受访者认为中国官方通胀预期反映了他们的个人感受，同时44.7%的人认为没有反映他们的感受，这暗示许多公众认为官方统计数据低估了物价增幅。

这一结果与央行上周公布的2010年第2季度全国城镇储户问卷调查相一致。中国央行调查显示，58.9%的储蓄者认为整体物价水平“高，难以接受”，是10年以来该调查的最高值。调查中70.3%的居民预计物价将在第二季度上升。

中国国家统计局本月稍早公布，５月居民消费物价指数较上年同期增长3.1%，首次突破了政府为2010年设定的平均不超过3%的官方通胀目标。但政府和私营机构分析师普遍预计，总体通胀率将在今年下半年下降，因上年同期基数较高，而且原材料价格下跌。