【英语中国】中国消费主义带来投资新机遇

Milk, insurance and air conditioners have one thing in common-they all offer potential plays on the growing importance of the Chinese consumer.

Domestic consumption in China is a theme global investors will want to follow. For years, China has depended on investment and exports to drive its economy, but the government is now pushing hard to promote domestic consumption as a new engine of growth.

In the next five years, economists predict the government will continue to goose spending through incentives such as rebates that have been given on certain consumer goods. Efforts to improve the country's social safety net, meanwhile, will shrink the need for Chinese households to stash away savings for emergencies.

China gave domestic consumer-oriented stocks a boost over the weekend when it untethered China's yuan from the dollar, changing a status quo in place since mid-2008. The currency should rise in value over time, increasing the purchasing power of domestic consumers.

'Consumption has grown steeply in China for a decade, despite the facts that 30% of income is set aside into savings and a big chunk of what is left has gone into buying a home,' says Daniel Rosen, founder and China practice leader of Rhodium Group, a New York-based advisory firm.

Mr. Rosen expects rising government investment in health care and consumers upgrading rather than buying homes will 'both be positive for consumer products' over the next decade.

Which brings us back to milk, insurance and air cons. These are the focus of business for three companies well-positioned to benefit from China's growing consumer power: China Mengniu Dairy Co., Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. of China, and Gree Electric Appliances Inc.

The thread running through each of these companies is that they have built a strong franchise in their respective industries that increases their pricing power, reduces costs and discourages new competitors. Without these characteristics, new competitors would be able to drive down prices, wiping out the profitability of additional growth in consumer spending.

Investors should stay alert for attractive entry points, especially when bad news from the U.S. and Europe lead to broader market sell-offs that make these stocks cheaper. Each of the three stocks are down year-to-date and trade below their levels at the start of 2008.

China Mengniu Dairy is the country's top milk brand, a market that is set to grow as diets in China change. The country's milk industry was plagued by scandal in 2008, when the introduction of melamine into baby formula and other milk products shook the industry. China Mengniu Dairy wasn't immune from the scandal but has taken the lead within a competitive industry by introducing higher standards by creating large-scale industrialized cow farms. This will ensure a steadier supply of high-quality milk and reduce costs through vertical integration.

China Mengniu Dairy also recently signed a deal for China's state grain producer, Cofco, to take a minority stake in the company, giving it a powerful state ally as it grows bigger and expands its distribution network. Hopu Investment Management Co., a China-focused private-equity fund, has taken a stake and should prove a strong advocate for small shareholders interests.

China Mengniu Dairy trades around 27 times its 2010 expected earnings. That may sound high, but is still below the multiple for competitor Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.

Ping An Insurance has built China's first financial-services conglomerate with a management team drawn from the private sector, giving it a leg up on its lumbering state-run competitors. Its cadre of top-tier management talent, including former McKinsey consultant Louis Cheung and former Citigroup Inc. banker Richard Jackson, should give investors confidence it can successfully integrate its recently acquired controlling stake in Shenzhen Development Bank Co. into the group.

Premium growth in its life-insurance business has been strong this year, and the underwriting business of its securities arm has been spectacular as it capitalizes on the growth of China's new Nasdaq-style board, ChiNext, in Ping An Insurance's hometown of Shenzhen.

Ping An Insurance trades about 23 times its expected 2010 earnings. That is roughly in line with the less dynamic and diversified state-owned China Life Insurance Co. and well below historic multiples for Ping An Insurance.

China's No. 1 air-conditioner manufacturer Gree Electric, which won contracts to provide centralized air conditioning to seven of the World Cup venues in South Africa, has earned a reputation for being a high-quality Chinese manufacturer, winning it 39% of the domestic air-conditioner market.

Chinese consumers are willing to pay for quality in white goods, and air conditioners are notoriously difficult to maintain, giving Gree Electric the ability to charge a higher margin than competitors. It has also been manufacturing for quality-conscious consumers in Japan through a deal with Daikin, Japan's No. 1 brand in the market segment, giving it valuable high-end market experience.

Gree Electric trades around 12 times its expected 2010 earnings.

牛奶、保险和空调有个共同点──它们都提供了从中国消费群体日益提高的重要地位上获益的机会。

中国的内需是全球投资者将希望跟风的主题。多年来，中国一直依靠投资和出口来推动经济发展，不过政府如今大力推动内需作为一种新的增长引擎。

经济学家们预测，未来五年中，政府将通过继续在某些消费品上提供补贴等刺激措施提振支出。与此同时，改善中国社会安全网的努力将减少中国家庭存钱以备不时之需的必要。

中国上周末一改2008年年中以来的状况，宣布终止人民币与美元挂钩的做法，进而提振了以国内消费者为重点的企业股票。随着时间的推移，人民币应该升值，增强国内消费者的购买力。

位于纽约的顾问公司Rhodium Group创始人、中国业务负责人罗森(Daniel Rosen)说，10年来，中国的消费大幅增长，尽管事实上是有30%的收入被用于存款，剩下的大部分被用来买房了。

罗森预计，未来10年，政府在医疗上不断增加的投资以及消费者改善住房（而不是首次购房）都将对消费品有利。

这就让我们回到了牛奶、保险和空调的讨论上。这些是有望从中国日益增强的消费能力中获益的三家企业的业务重点：中国蒙牛乳业有限公司、中国平安保险(集团)股份有限公司和珠海格力电器股份有限公司。

这些企业的共同点是，它们都在各自的行业中树立了强大的品牌，增强了它们的定价能力，降低了成本，并令新的竞争者望而却步。如果没有这些特点，新的竞争者将能压低价格，令更多的消费支出增长带来的盈利抵消殆尽。

投资者们应该警惕有吸引力的入市时机，特别是当美国和欧洲的坏消息造成市场普遍抛售，致使这些企业的股票下跌的时候。今年以来，上述三只股票都下跌了，交易价格低于2008年年初的水平。

蒙牛乳业是中国的顶级乳业品牌，而随着中国人的饮食结构发生变化，乳业市场必定会出现增长。2008年中国乳制品行业深受丑闻困扰，当时婴儿配方奶粉和其他乳制品中掺入了化工原料三聚氰胺，令整个行业“地震”。蒙牛乳业也未能幸免于丑闻，但通过建立大规模工业化奶牛场、引入更高标准，在竞争激烈的乳制品行业取得了领先地位。蒙牛的做法将确保高质量奶源的稳定供应，并通过垂直统一管理降低成本。

蒙牛不久前还与中国国有粮食生产商中粮集团(Cofco)签定协议，向中粮出售少数股权，蒙牛借此在扩大规模、扩展销售网络的同时拥有了一个强有力的国字号盟友。专注于中国的私募股权基金厚朴投资管理公司(Hopu Investment Management Co.)也持有蒙牛乳业股份，应当会成为小股东利益的有力代言人。

以2010年预期收益计，蒙牛乳业股票当前市盈率约为27倍。这个数字听起来还算高，不过仍低于竞争对手内蒙古伊利实业集团的市盈率倍数。

平安保险以一支来自私营行业的管理团队建立了中国第一家金融服务类的综合公司，相对于动作迟缓的国营竞争对手取得领先优势。平安保险的高层管理团队中包括曾任咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)咨询师的张子欣(Louis Cheung)、前花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)银行家理查德•杰克逊(Richard Jackson)，这样一个团队应当能让投资者相信平安保险能够成功整合不久前收购的深发展银行股份有限公司股权。

平安保险的人寿保险业务今年的保费收入增长强劲，其证券部门的承销业务也十分抢眼，因中国在平安大本营所在的深圳市新推出了类似纳斯达克的创业板(ChiNext)。

以2010年预期收益计，平安保险市盈率约23倍，大致与活力和多样性不及它的国有企业中国人寿保险公司相当，远低于平安保险自身以往的市盈率。

中国空调生产行业的龙头老大格力电器素有高质量中国制造商之称，赢得了中国国内空调市场39%的份额。格力还赢得了为南非世界杯七个赛场提供中央空调的合约。

中国消费者乐于为高质量的白色家电慷慨解囊，而空调维护保养之难是出了名的，格力因此得以实现比竞争对手更高的定价。格力还与日本空调市场的龙头品牌大金(Daikin)签定协议，为对质量十分挑剔的日本消费者制造空调，从而获得了宝贵的高端市场经验。

以2010年预期收益计，格力电器市盈率约12倍。