【英语中国】北京汇改之举彰显大师功力

In controlling the yuan's fate,

Beijing shows it's a chess master

In the never-ending game over China's currency, Beijing has made what chess commentators might term a sharp move. By unexpectedly announcing it will allow greater exchange-rate flexibility, without specifics on how far or fast the yuan might rise against the U.S. dollar, Beijing has achieved some positive ends for itself.

The move should soften criticism of its exchange-rate policy at the meeting of Group of 20 developing and industrialized nations June 26-27, which had been shaping up as a China-bashing forum.

Yet by returning the yuan to a managed float against a basket of currencies, Beijing won't have to cede too much in the near term over the dollar/yuan rate. The euro's weakness -- the yuan is up 14% against the euro this year -- should mitigate the speed of any yuan appreciation against the dollar.

Allowing some rise in the yuan's value against the greenback will help the central bank battle inflation, which in May tipped over the government's target rate for 2010. In the longer term, China's gradual move to a market-based currency regime will help the country pursue more independent monetary policy.

There are downsides for China, of course. By telegraphing revaluation plans, it risks speculative inflows into the country, complicating efforts to control money supply.

The return to a managed float also could be seen internally as caving to international pressure. In recent weeks, Brazil and India have joined U.S. calls for China to move on its currency. And Asia's exporters will be relieved to see the yuan rise.

Overall, though, this move scores Beijing some points without causing it too many sacrifices. The game's next developments will depend on the patience of the U.S. if the yuan's resumed rise proves all-too gradual.

Andrew Peaple

在控制人民币命运的问题上，中国的举动显示它是位象棋大师。

在永不收场的中国汇率游戏中，北京走出了一步可能会被象棋评论员称为突然之举的棋。在出人意料地宣布将进一步增强人民币汇率的灵活性、但却未具体阐明人民币兑美元可能升值的幅度及速度后，北京为自己赢得了一些主动性。

此举将会软化中国汇率政策在6月26至27日召开的20国集团(G20)峰会上受到的批评，该会议正逐渐成为针对中国的批斗会。

然而通过让人民币兑一篮子货币重新回到有管理的浮动汇率制这一举动，北京短期内在美元兑人民币汇率的问题上不会有太多损失。欧元的弱势──人民币兑欧元今年已升值14%──应该会减缓人民币兑美元的升值速度。

允许人民币兑美元有所升值将有助于中国央行对抗通货膨胀，中国5月份通胀率小幅超过了政府设定的2010年通胀率目标。从长期来看，中国逐步转向以市场为基础的汇率制将有助于它实施更加独立的货币政策。

当然，对中国来说也有不好的一面。汇率重估意向的流露，将使中国面临投机资本流入的风险，从而令其控制货币供应的努力变得更加复杂。

而在中国国内，回归有管理的浮动汇率制则被看作是对国际压力的屈从。最近几周，巴西和印度也开始与美国一道呼吁中国让人民币升值。亚洲出口商看到人民币升值将会如释重负。

不过总体而言，北京会因此举而得分，同时自身也没有过多牺牲。这场游戏的下一步看点是，如果人民币重新升值的进程被证明太过缓慢，美国将会有何举动。

Andrew Peaple