【英语中国】中国汇改声明让交易员措手不及

Currency traders left the Chinese yuan party too soon. Now they are piling back in.

China's weekend announcement that it would revert to its pre-crisis currency policy surprised investors who had given up on their long-held yuan positions. Turmoil in Europe and fears of a double-dip recession led currency traders to retreat from the idea that China would loosen its grip on the yuan.

'Over the last four weeks, more than three-quarters of clients were unwinding long-Asia positions, especially as things were blowing out in Europe,' said Adam Reynolds, co-head of Asian fixed income and currencies at Societe Generale in Hong Kong. 'As things stabilized last week, a couple guys put a position back on,' he said, but mostly investors missed the opportunity to profit on China's announcement.

On Monday, investors reset their bets on yuan appreciation, driving assets tied to the yuan higher. These include regional currencies such as the Malaysian ringgit and the Korean won, which are seen as proxies for Chinese growth. Both rose more than 2% against the dollar Monday.

The yuan itself strengthened 0.4% against the dollar, within its proscribed 0.5% trading band. China didn't change the yuan's 'central parity rate,' the middle zone of that band where it wants the currency to trade.

Expectations for a stronger yuan were also reflected in the closely watched market for dollar-yuan derivatives known as nondeliverable forwards, or NDFs. NDFs are derivative contracts traded between investors that pay out based on the value of the yuan in the future.

In reaction to the weekend announcement, the 12-month NDFs moved sharply Monday in favor of a stronger yuan, implying a 3% strengthening of the yuan in the next year. On Friday, it was 1.8%.

The reason NDFs exist is that investors can't trade the yuan directly. China's strict controls on the flow of money prevent unfettered currency trading and make it nearly impossible to directly own yuan in large amounts and with the ability to buy and sell the currency quickly.

NDFs take care of that by letting market participants take bets on where they think the yuan will be in, say, one, six or 12 months. Watching the trail of the NDF market over the past couple of months shows how investors were prepared for a yuan move, then lost their nerve.

In late April, the 12-month NDF market was predicting a 3% increase in the yuan. But as markets swooned, investors fled their bets on China making a big currency announcement. By May 26, the NDFs were pricing in just a 0.7% increase.

HSBC currency analysts on June 10 announced the 'window closed' on yuan appreciation in 2010 and predicted that the yuan would continue to trade at its current 6.80 level versus the dollar by the end of the year. HSBC doesn't think the weekend move means the yuan will necessarily appreciate, though it now acknowledges that it is a possibility.

'The only certainty we have out of the weekend is that China is depegging, nothing more,' said Richard Yetsenga, HSBC's head Asia currency strategist. He said China's emphasis on 'flexibility' in its policy statements means the yuan is positioned to react more to the currencies of its largest trading partners, including Europe, and could go up or down.

'If the euro keeps going up, flexibility will equal appreciation against the dollar. But if the euro turns tail, markets are in for a surprise,' Mr. Yetsenga said.

Christy Tan, Asian foreign exchange and debt strategist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch, calls the current 3% appreciation baked in the NDFs 'reasonable' and thinks the there is 'limited' room for more than that.

'China will need to see external and domestic [economic] conditions align before it is confident in exiting crisis response. At this point, the main motive is to appease the U.S.' and other trading partners, she said.

The next thing to watch in the yuan market will be Tuesday morning, when Chinese officials set the central parity rate. A change in the parity rate toward a stronger yuan would be a clear signal that China's announcement is being followed up with real action.

If it doesn't change the fixing rate, the 'market will get really confused and you'll see the dollar rally,' said David Forrester, Barclays Capital currency strategist in Singapore. 'China's emphasis is on stability, so the idea of trying to catch people out wouldn't be promoting stability.'

Keeping investors guessing might be part of China's playbook when it comes to the yuan. Chinese officials have said they don't want investors to profit from policy decisions. They also want to deter 'hot money' flowing into China that can quickly inflate property and stock bubbles, and can just as quickly leave, causing rapid price falls and general economic dislocation.

Some analysts figure China picked this weekend to make the announcement precisely because so many investors had removed their bets on yuan appreciation.

The timing was similar to what happened in 2005, the first time China loosened its currency, said Mirae Asset Securities Chief Economist Bill Belchere. 'In 2005, they surprised the market. The market was waiting, waiting, waiting, got bored and then left,' he said.

外汇交易员们太早地离开人民币的盛宴了，现在他们正卷土重来。

中国上周末宣布将重拾经济危机之前的汇率政策，大出投资者意料，此前投资者已经放弃长期持有的人民币头寸。由于欧洲经济动荡，加上担心经济出现二次衰退，外汇交易员打消了认为中国将放松对人民币控制的想法。

相关报导NDF存在的原因是投资者不能直接交易人民币。中国严格控制货币流动，从而阻止了自由的货币交易，投资者几乎不可能直接拥有大量人民币，也不能迅速买进卖出。

NDF解决了这个问题，让市场参与方押注他们认为的人民币在一个月、半年或一年后的水平。看看过去几个月里NDF市场的波动轨迹，它显示出投资者本来已做好准备迎接人民币的变动，然后又变得犹豫不决。

4月底，12个月NDF市场预计人民币将升值3%。但随着市场下挫，投资者纷纷撤销对中国将就汇率问题做出重大声明的押注。5月26日，NDF的价格仅反映人民币将升值0.7%。

6月10日，汇丰(HSBC)外汇分析师们宣布2010年人民币升值的“窗口关闭了”，并预测年底前人民币将继续以目前的水平交易──目前美元兑人民币6.80元。汇丰认为，央行上周末的汇改声明并不意味着人民币一定会升值，不过它现在承认存在这种可能性。

汇丰首席亚洲外汇策略师耶特森加(Richard Yetsenga)说，我们对央行上周末的声明唯一能够肯定的一点是，中国将取消盯住美元的做法，除此之外，别的都不能肯定。他说，中国在政策声明中对“灵活性”的强调意味着，人民币将更多地参考包括欧洲在内的主要贸易伙伴的货币进行调节，而且可能会双向浮动。

耶特森加说，如果欧元持续走强，人民币的更大灵活性将等于是兑美元升值。不过，如果欧元走软，情况会出乎市场的意料。

美国银行美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)亚洲外汇及债务策略师Christy Tan说，目前NDF走势反映出的人民币3%的升幅是“合理的”，并认为超过这个幅度后，升值空间“有限”。

她说，中国将需要看到外部和国内经济形势出现好转后，才会对现有的危机应对方法充满信心。目前，主要的目的是为了安抚美国和其他贸易伙伴。

人民币市场上还需要关注的一点将发生在周二早间，届时中国官员将设定“汇率中间价”。反映出人民币走强的汇率中间价变化将是一个明确的信号，表明在中国的声明之后有了真正的行动。

巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)驻新加坡外汇策略师弗雷斯特(David Forrester)说，如果中国央行没有调整设定的汇率中间价，市场将会非常困惑，美元会走强。他说，中国的重点在保持稳定上，而出人意料的做法是不会增强稳定性的。

让投资者猜来猜去或许是中国在人民币问题上游戏规则的一部分。中国官员曾说，他们不希望投资者从政策决策中谋利。他们还希望此举能发挥震慑作用，防止“热钱”流入中国。热钱的流入会迅速助长房地产和股市泡沫，热钱还会很快流出，导致价格迅速下滑，整体经济陷入混乱。

一些分析人士认为，中国选择上周末发表声明，只是因为很多投资者已经不再押宝人民币升值了。

未来资产证券(Mirae Asset Securities)首席经济学家贝尔彻(Bill Belchere)说，此次的时机选择与2005年中国首次放宽汇率时类似。他说，2005年，他们出乎市场意料地宣布放宽汇率，市场等呀等，最后等得不耐烦了，就纷纷退出了。