【英语中国】中国汇改：日本很受益还是很受伤？

Tokyo joined Washington and others in welcoming China's decision to increase the flexibility in its currency policy over the weekend. But the uniquely close and complex interdependence between Asia's two largest economies suggests the impact could hurt, as well as help, Japan.

Unlike the U.S. and some European economies with huge trade deficits with China, Japan enjoys relatively balanced trade with the nation. This rules out Japan as an instant beneficiary of the move.

Many Japanese companies, both big and small, have shifted their production to China during the past decades, and now manufacture a range of products there both for local consumption and for export to the rest of the world.

For these companies, a stronger yuan would add to the costs of locally procured materials and labor, a blow at a time when large Japanese companies such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. are already struggling with labor unrest at their local factories.

But many of the same Japanese companies export products to China, including heavy machinery for the country's booming construction sector and parts and manufacturing equipment used at Japanese transplants there. A stronger yuan would shore up the profitability of these businesses.

China is Japan's largest trading partner, with Japan importing $125 billion of goods last year, primarily items like clothing and food products. But Japan's exports to China also are significant at $112 billion, with Japan's trade deficit shrinking for the past four years.

Indeed, soaring exports to China and other emerging economies have been a driver of Japan's recovery in recent quarters, a trend economists expect to see continue given the strong outlook for these nations.

Prices of many consumer goods imported to Japan from China will face upward pressure -- not such a bad thing in Japan, which is battling deflation, a leading cause of the country's protracted malaise. Analysts say some 70% of items filling their shelves are made in China.

In addition, Japan can expect to see a further increase in Chinese tourists who now find visiting Japan cheaper. Still, the outlook remains murky on how the decision will affect the yen's exchange rate against the yuan and other currencies.

本周末，中国决定增强其汇率政策的灵活性，日本和美国等国一同对此表示欢迎。但这两个亚洲最大的经济体之间密切而又复杂的相互依存关系十分独特，因此中国汇率政策的改变既有可能让日本很受伤，又可能让它很受益。

美国及部分欧洲经济体与中国存在着巨额的贸易逆差。与它们不同，日本与中国的贸易相对平衡。这意味着日本不是中国汇改的直接受益人。

许多大大小小的日本公司在过去数十年间已把其生产基地转移到中国，他们如今在中国生产的大量产品既供当地消费也向世界其它地区出口。

对这些公司而言，人民币升值将增加在当地购买原材料及劳工成本。在丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)和本田汽车公司(Honda Motor Co.)等大型日本公司已经因当地工厂工潮而焦头烂额之时，这一消息显然构成了重大打击。

但许多这些日本公司同时还向中国出口产品，包括供中国繁荣的建筑领域使用的重型机械以及用于日本在华工厂的零部件和制造设备等。人民币升值将提升这些业务的盈利性。

中国是日本最大的贸易伙伴。去年，日本从中国进口了1,250亿美元的商品，主要以服装和食品等为主。但日本对华出口额巨大，达1,120亿美元，且过去四年日本的贸易逆差不断减少。

事实上，对中国及其它新兴经济体的出口激增一直是近几个季度日本经济复苏的推动器。经济学家预计，由于这些国家的经济前景强劲，日本出口激增的趋势仍将继续。

中国向日本出口的许多消费品的价格将面临上涨的压力，但这对正在对抗通缩的日本而言不是件坏事。通缩已经成为日本经济长期低迷的主要原因之一。分析师说，日本约70%的在售商品由中国制造。

此外，由于中国游客发现日本游的价格将更便宜，赴日游客预计将进一步增加。尽管如此，中国推进汇改的决定对日圆兑人民币及其它货币的汇率将有何影响仍无法断定。