【英语中国】中国推进汇改 升值还是贬值？

Should investors get excited about China's latest pledge to increase the yuan's flexibility in the foreign exchange market? Yes and no.

Yes, because the People's Bank of China's initial announcement Saturday suggested that the yuan's 23-month-old de facto peg to the U.S. dollar is dead. The central bank also hinted strongly that it would now tolerate some gradual appreciation of the currency.

No, because a lengthy and equally obscure follow-up explanatory statement Sunday by the central bank made it clear that Beijing still wants a 'basically stable' currency and there will be no one-off revaluation.

So what to expect in the coming days and months?

First, in the runup to the Group of 20 summit in Toronto next weekend, the PBOC is likely to engineer some symbolic gains for the yuan against the greenback, since the timing of the policy announcement was clearly aimed at easing resurgent international criticism and making President Hu Jintao's meeting with his U.S. counterpart at the summit a congenial occasion.

While offshore speculators may rush to price in short-term spikes in the yuan's value in the lively non-deliverable swap market, the PBOC will probably only tolerate tiny increments for the currency in the near term via the setting of the daily dollar-yuan central parity.

But after the G-20 summit is over and assuming Beijing avoids being labeled as a currency manipulator by U.S. legislators, the yuan will be back in uncharted territory.

That's because politics rather than economics was arguably the single biggest driver behind China's latest policy announcement.

Despite the various long-term economic benefits of a strong yuan touted by economists and even the PBOC itself, it would be wrong to assume that China has really become more accepting of a more liberal currency policy.

Actually Beijing even contradicts itself.

The PBOC said conditions are ripe for it to make the yuan more flexible because both domestic and global economic recovery is on track. But just a few weeks ago Premier Wen Jiabao warned that China should avoid exiting its broad-based economic stimulus too soon and too firmly.

For sure, China's economy stayed in robust shape in the first quarter, delivering a stunning 11.9% growth rate, but it's widely expected to suffer a slowdown in the second half of this year due to domestic property tightening measures and a weakening European economy.

At the same time, China is suffering a fresh wave of labor shortage and wages are rising sharply across the country. With its economy still heavily dependent on exports, a stronger currency will only make things worse.

Beijing is conscious of the risks.

In the PBOC's follow-up statement on Sunday, it stressed that the yuan's exchange rate will be flexib
le 'in both directions.'

'Realizing two-way fluctuation of the yuan's exchange rate stems from the need to strengthen the independence and effectiveness of China's macroeconomic policy and to cope with different scenarios of external shocks,' the PBOC said.

In other words, the yuan can go up or down from now as deemed appropriate.

So the real intention behind the latest policy move could be this: While buying some time from the international community for itself, China will gradually encourage two-way moves for its currency without tweaking the existing exchange-rate mechanism.

So don't be surprised to see the yuan weaken again further down the road and hear Beijing attribute it all to a 'more flexible' currency policy.

投资者应该为中国最近承诺增加人民币在外汇市场上的灵活性感到兴奋吗？应该，也不应该。

Bloomberg News应该，因为中国央行(People's Bank of China)上周六最初发布的公告表明，实行了23个月的人民币实际盯住美元的体系已经终结。中国央行还强烈暗示，现在将允许人民币逐渐、部分升值。

不应该，因为央行周日发布的大篇幅、极其隐晦的后续解释性公告表明，北京仍然希望人民币保持基本稳定，不会进行一次性重估。

那么，在接下来的数天和数月中，应该期待什么呢？

首先，在20国集团峰会周末在多伦多召开前夕，中国央行可能会让人民币兑美元象征性升值，因为中国宣布上述政策的时机清楚地表明，其目的在于缓解重新升温的国际批评，使国家主席胡锦涛在峰会期间与美国总统会面时气氛更加融洽。

尽管海外投机者可能会在交易活跃的无本金交割掉期市场上，反映出人民币汇率短期内升高的价格因素，但中国央行或许将通过设定美元兑人民币每日中间价来仅允许人民币小幅升值。

但在G20峰会结束后，假如北京想避免被美国国会议员称为汇率操纵国，人民币将重新回到无法预知的区间。

这是因为此次中国调整汇率政策幕后的唯一、也是最大的驱动力，按理说是政治而非经济因素。

尽管有经济学家、包括中国央行自己都宣称的强势人民币所带来的各种经济上的长期益处，但要是因此便认为中国对更加自由的汇率政策的确开始采取更加接受的态度，那就错了。

事实上，北京甚至是自相矛盾的。

中国央行说，增强人民币弹性的条件已成熟，因为国内外经济正逐步复苏。可就在数周前，中国总理温家宝还警告说中国应避免过早、过严地退出其基础广泛的经济刺激政策。

中国经济第一季度的表现无疑是出色的，经济增速达到惊人的11.9%。不过人们普遍预测中国经济下半年将因国内楼市调控措施和疲软的欧洲经济而放缓。

与此同时，中国正遭受新一轮劳动力短缺，全国的薪资水平大幅提高。由于中国经济仍严重依赖出口，人民币走强只会使事情变得更糟。

北京意识到了这些风险。

中国央行在周日的后续公告中强调，人民币汇率弹性将实现“双向浮动”。

中国央行说，“实现双向浮动，也是提高宏观调控的主动性和有效性的需要，可应对不同情景下的外部冲击。”

也就是说，从现在开始人民币将根据适宜情况升值或贬值。

因此，此次政策调整背后的真实用意可能是：在为自己从国际社会赢得时间的同时，中国将在无需调整现行汇率机制的情况下逐渐鼓励人民币双向浮动。

所以，在看到今后人民币继续走软、并听到北京将之完全归因于“更加灵活”的汇率政策时，不要感到惊奇。