【英语中国】中国股市牛劲暂歇

China's once-raging stock-market bulls are an endangered species.

The latest evidence: the near-extinction of the premium that mainland Chinese investors are prepared to pay for stocks listed both in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

On Thursday, the Hang Seng AH Premium Index fell below 100. The index tracks the difference between stock prices in Shanghai, called A shares, and prices of the same companies' Hong Kong listings, called H shares. A reading of 100 indicates that on average, there is no price differential.

Since August 2006, A shares have traded without fail at a premium to H shares. In part this is because mainland investors have few assets to invest in beyond shares and property. Until recently, they couldn't short sell, and they still can't easily buy stocks abroad.

Other factors are now outweighing these restrictions. For a start, mainland stock buyers have been digesting a massive increase in equity issuance. Companies have raised $64 billion in Shanghai this year, compared with $22 billion in Hong Kong, according to Dealogic.

Beyond this, short-term jitters about the direction of government policy have taken hold in Shanghai's sentiment-driven market, bringing down the average A-to-H-share premium. Banking and property stocks have suffered in particular, as investors fear tighter controls on lending and property speculation. At the same time, foreign investors are reaffirming their belief in the 'China story' -- particularly at current low valuations. Recently, cash has been flowing into China funds and a Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey, released this week, found fund managers are no longer 'underweight' on China.

The confluence of domestic pessimism and overseas optimism has, then, temporarily eliminated the A-to-H-share premium. If China were to loosen controls on foreign investors trading in Shanghai and on domestic investors trading abroad, any differential could be arbitraged away. The introduction of stock index futures in Shanghai this year, giving traders the opportunity to profit on market falls, also is helping to cap Shanghai's tendency to bubble.

Long before those reforms have taken effect, though, it is likely that the premium will re-emerge. After all, traders in Shanghai still are prone to extravagant mood swings. The Shanghai bull could be sighted again soon.

中国的股市曾经如同愤怒的公牛一路狂飙，如今这头公牛俨然已成为濒危物种。

最新证据：中国投资者准备为同一家公司在上海和香港上市的两支股票支付的价格之间的溢价已“濒临消失”。

Reuters合肥一位股民在电子股价牌前打瞌睡周四，恒生AH 股溢价指数(Hang Seng AH Premium Index)跌至100点以下。这一指数跟踪同一家公司的上海A股股价与香港H股股价之间的差异。指数为100点时表明，平均而言，二者之间没有价差。

自2006年8月起，A股的交易价始终高于H股，这在一定程度上是因为除股票和房地产之外，中国内地投资者可投资的资产极少。内地投资者直到不久前才可以进行做空股市的操作，而且目前仍无法方便地购买境外的股票。

目前，其它一些因素的影响力正在超越这些限制因素。首先，内地股票发行数量大规模增加。Dealogic的数据显示，今年各公司在上海证券交易所的融资额高达640亿美元，相比之下，在香港仅220亿美元。

此外，对上海这个情绪驱动型股市而言，投资者对政府政策方向的短期焦虑已经根深蒂固，导致A-H股平均溢价降低。由于投资者担心政府对放贷和房地产投机将施以更严格的控制，银行股和房地产股的损失尤为惨重。与此同时，外国投资者重新坚定了他们对“中国故事”的信心──尤其在当前估值较低的状况下。近期，资金不断注入各中国基金。本周发布的美国银行/美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)调查显示，基金经理们不再降低对中国的投资。

在国内悲观情绪与海外乐观情绪的共同作用下，A-H股溢价暂时消失。如果中国放松对外国投资者在上海股市交易的控制，并允许国内投资者在境外交易，套利交易会让所有价差不复存在。今年在上海推出的股指期货不但让交易者有机会在股市下跌时获利，也有助于遏制上海股市的泡沫化倾向。

然而，在这些改革的效果显现之前的很长一段时间内，溢价很可能会再次出现。毕竟，上海的交易者仍有过度受情绪摆布的倾向。上海的牛市可能不久就会重新出现在人们视线之中。