【英语中国】中国政府承诺汇改防G20发难

China's announcement that it will let its currency appreciate puts it in a strong position going into a summit of the Group of 20 on Saturday, but does little to ease pressure from the U.S. Congress.

The bulk of the session of the G-20 industrialized and developing nations will be devoted to strengthening global growth. China can argue it is doing its bit for the major initiative, known as 'rebalancing.'

Under the plan, the U.S. and other big trade-deficit countries have committed to increase their savings and import less, while the big trade-surplus countries -- China, Germany and Japan -- have pledged to do the opposite. The latter are supposed to plot ways they will grow more through domestic consumption and less through exports.

The U.S., and to a lesser degree Japan, India, Brazil and other member countries, had been arguing for months that an undervalued Chinese currency destabilizes growth. A cheaper yuan encourages China to rely more on exports, undermining other export nations, especially at a time when big consuming countries aren't likely to buy as many imports as they once did because of weaker economies.

'China is saying to the rest of the G-20, 'It's your move,'' says Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. 'It defuses any bombs that might have been thrown in their direction at the G-20.'

The focus now will shift to Germany and Japan, which are expected to explain policy changes they are planning.

'We'll want to see from the other surplus countries a demonstration of a credible path toward increasing internal demand,' said a senior U.S. official, who noted the U.S. would be under pressure to show it was putting in place policies to address sky-high budget deficits.

But China's announcement was short on details about how much it would let the yuan appreciate. In Brazil, the central bank governor, Henrique Meirelles, said he welcomed the Chinese announcement, but wanted to see results. 'It is necessary to await further developments,' he said in a statement.

In the U.S., New York Democratic Sen. Charles Schumer, who has spent a decade ramping up pressure on China over currency issues, remains skeptical that Beijing's announcement will make an appreciable difference. On Sunday, reacting to Chinese suggestions that change would be gradual, Mr. Schumer said he would move forward on legislation to penalize China for undervaluing its currency.

'Just a day after there was much hoopla about the Chinese finally changing their policy, they are already backing off,' he said in a statement.

U.S. government officials expect a slow, steady increase, similar to the way China boosted the value of the yuan between 2005 and 2008.

Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economist who was formerly the IMF's top China expert, said the size of the increase during the coming month will give a hint at the 'trajectory' Beijing is anticipating. He says that in periods of economic calm, China 'is comfortable with' an increase in the value of the yuan of about 10% to 15% a year.

It's far from clear that Congress will be satisfied. During the period of 2005-2008, the yuan at one point appreciated nearly 20%. That did little to affect the trade deficit; the U.S. trade deficit with China for that period grew by one-third to $268 billion.

The bilateral deficit fell sharply in 2009, but that was because U.S. demand shriveled in the wake of a recession, not because of currency changes. Lawmakers are especially concerned about the trade deficit because they can tie the deficit to lost jobs in the U.S.

Since the spring, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has used the G-20 summit to pressure China to agree to a more flexible exchange rate. In April, he delayed issuance of the Treasury's twice-yearly report on international currency practices, and privately warned Beijing if it didn't take significant steps to let the yuan strengthen, he would use the report to accuse China of manipulating the yuan to gain an edge in global trade.

The report doesn't carry penalties, but it would be a symbolic slap at Beijing and boost efforts in Congress to penalize China -- legislation that a Democratic president would have found difficult to veto.

Since then, Mr. Geithner has made a pitch to Chinese officials on two trips to Beijing. European sovereign-debt problems may have reduced China's willingness to make the announcement U.S. officials were expecting as the summit grew closer.

On June 16, President Barack Obama increased the pressure. 'I also want to underscore that market-determined exchange rates are essential to global economic vitality,' he wrote to his G-20 counterparts 'The signals that flexible exchange rates send are necessary to support a strong and balanced global economy.'

The Chinese alerted the administration early Saturday, shortly before making their announcement, that Beijing was moving in the direction the U.S. sought.

中国宣布将推动汇改、让人民币升值，此举将助其在本周六即将召开的二十国集团(G20)峰会上占据有利地位，却未能缓和来自美国国会的压力。

G20峰会的大部分会程将用于讨论加强全球经济增长的问题。中国可以宣称其为名为“再平衡”的主要议题尽到了自己的力量。

Reuters美国财长盖特纳与中国副总理王岐山讨论了人民币汇率问题。按照计划，美国和其他贸易逆差大国承诺要增加储蓄、减少进口，而中国、德国和日本等贸易顺差大国则做出了相反的承诺。后者被认为应当想办法更多地依靠国内消费实现经济增长，而不是通过对外出口。

美国及日本、印度、巴西和其他一些G20成员国连月来一直说，人民币汇率低估令经济增长不稳定。不过其他国家的论调不如美国那么强烈。人民币汇率持低会鼓励中国更多地依靠出口，损害其他出口国，尤其是当重要消费国经济疲弱、不太可能像以前一样大量购买进口商品之时。

哈佛大学经济学家、曾任国际货币基金组织(IMF)首席经济学家的罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)说，中国是在向其他G20成员国传递一个信息：现在轮到你们采取行动了。他说，中国此举是事先解除了在G20峰会上可能遭遇的任何发难。

现在的焦点将会转向德国和日本，期待二者解释其正在计划的政策变动。

一名资深美国官员说，我们希望看到其他贸易顺差国家展示出正朝着增加内需的方向切实努力。他强调，美国也会承受压力，要其显示出正在制定政策以应对极高的预算赤字。

但中国的声明没有详细说明允许人民币升值的幅度。巴西央行行长Henrique Meirelles说，他欢迎中国的声明，但希望看到成果。他在声明中说，有必要等待进一步的进展。

美国民主党参议员舒默(Charles Schumer)10年来一直不断地寻求就汇率问题向中国施压，他对中国政府的声明是否会带来实际变化保持怀疑态度。周日，针对中国称汇率将渐进变化的声明，舒默说他将力争通过立法惩罚中国低估人民币汇率的行为。

舒默在声明中说，在外界对中国终于要改变其政策做出强烈反响仅仅一天之后，他们就已经退缩了。

美国政府官员预计人民币将缓慢、稳步升值，与中国在2005-2008年期间提升人民币币值的方式相似。

康奈尔大学(Cornell University)经济学家、曾任IMF首席中国专家的普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)说，未来几个月人民币的升值幅度将暗示北京方面预期的“升值曲线”。他说，在经济保持平稳的时期，中国能够接受人民币每年升值约10%-15%。

美国国会是否会对此感到满意还远远不明朗。在2005-2008年期间，人民币一度升值近20%，却对美国贸易逆差影响甚微；在那期间，美国对中国贸易逆差增长了三分之一，达到2,680亿美元。

2009年美国对华贸易逆差大幅下降，不过那是因为经历衰退之后的美国需求缩水，而不是因为汇率变化。美国议员们对贸易逆差尤其关注，因为他们能够将逆差与美国失业状况联系起来。

自今年春季以来，美国财长盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)已经利用G20峰会向中国施压，要求中国同意实施更灵活的汇率。今年4月，盖特纳推迟发布财政部每年两次的国际汇率情况报告，并私下警告北京方面说，如果不采取重大措施让人民币升值，他将利用该报告指责中国操纵人民币汇率以在全球贸易中获得优势。

美国财政部的报告并不会附加任何惩罚措施，但如果将中国定性为汇率操纵国，则无异于打了中国政府一耳光，并将促使国会采取行动对中国施以惩罚──国会将通过立法，而身为民主党的奥巴马总统将难以否决。

自那以后，盖特纳两次访问北京都向中国官员游说。欧洲主权债务问题或许降低了中国就人民币问题发表声明的意愿，美国官员原本预计中方会在G20峰会临近之际有所表示。

6月16日，美国总统奥巴马加大了施压力度。他致信G20与会者说，我还想强调的是，以市场为准的汇率对于全球经济活力至关重要。灵活的汇率所传递的信息是支撑强劲、平衡的全球经济所必需的。

周六早些时候，中国在发布声明前不久提醒相关方面说，中国政府正在朝着美国希望的方向前进。