【英语国际】美国股市价涨量跌的原因何在？

Where have all the traders gone?

The stock market just posted its best September in decades, but hardly anyone seems to be joining the rally. Hedge funds, high-frequency trading firms and individual investors have all cut back on stock trading, leaving third-quarter trading volume 25% below the level in the second quarter.

Trading on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq Stock Market and the American Stock Exchange is averaging 7.1 billion shares a day for the past three months, far below the 2010 average of 8.8 billion shares a day and back to levels not seen in more than two years.

The low trading volume has raised questions about whether September's rally is signaling a broad return of confidence. It is also casting a pall over the coming earnings season for banks, brokerage firms and exchanges, which make their living from churn in the markets. For those left on the trading floor, it has made for very slow days.

'Is it frustrating? Of course it is,' said Kenneth Polcari, managing director at Icap Corporates and a 27-year veteran of the NYSE trading floor. 'I wish it was much busier here, too, but it's a matter of where we are economically.'

Many investors and traders attribute the anemic trading to lingering worries about the health of the U.S. economy, Europe's sovereign-debt woes and concerns about China's growth. The heavy losses suffered through the financial crisis, the May 6 'flash crash' and the rise of computer-driven trading have only exacerbated investor fears.

The decline in trading could be feeding on itself. Colby Harlow, head of Dallas hedge-fund firm Harlow Capital Management, which has about $125 million in assets, said he trades a lot less than a year ago. 'If the volatility isn't there, I can't get in and get out,' Mr. Harlow said. He has moved some money out of his long-short equities portfolio, where he typically holds stocks for about three months, and shifted investments to a buy-and-hold strategy in which he stays in most securities for a year or longer.

At online brokerage TD Ameritrade, the average number of trades fell to about 309,000 a day in August, from 484,000 a day in May. Steve Quirk, senior vice president of the trader group, said that while September numbers aren't yet available, they likely will be even lower.

The lower volumes have been felt across the industry, Mr. Quirk said. Ameritrade said it is making a push into foreign exchange and futures trading.

'We talk to a lot of people,' said Mr. Quirk, a former floor trader. 'They're all waiting for the dust to clear.'

Thanks in large part to the ascent of high-frequency traders, which use computers to make lightening-fast bets, trading volumes are still higher than in the early part of the decade, when trades averaged about 3.9 billion shares a day.

Lately, though, high-frequency traders have also curtailed their activity. High-frequency trading has fallen to 53% of U.S. stock-trading volume this year, from 61% last year, according to estimates by TABB Group.

Persistent client withdrawals from mutual funds and the pullback of Wall Street trading desks, along with declines in market volatility, have blunted the edge high-frequency traders have had in recent years, said Sandler O'Neill & Partners analyst Richard Repetto.

'They don't have the other traders to ride off of,' Mr. Repetto said.

Investors have pulled a net $69.4 billion from domestic equity mutual funds since the end of April, according to the Investment Company Institute, trade association for fund managers.

Over the same period, nearly $123 billion has gone into
bond funds, boosting the average daily volume of trading in U.S. Treasury debt 26% this year from a year ago, according to data from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. At nearly $500 billion a day, Treasury trading volume has more than doubled in the past decade.

For large and small stock investors alike, 'the most popular trade is sitting on the sidelines,' said Kerim Derhalli, Deutsche Bank AG's global head of equity trading.

Rick Bensignor, chief market strategist at Execution Noble, an international investment-banking group, said his clients are a lot more hesitant to take him up on investment ideas.

'I'll put out a stock recommendation to a client, and in the past, where he might have said, 'Buy me 100,000' now he might say, 'Buy me 80,000 or 75,000,'' Mr. Bensignor said. Those trades may not pick up anytime soon, he said.

'You've essentially lost a generation of retail investors who say, 'I don't understand this game any more,' ' he said.

Jeff Rubin of Birinyi Associates, who has tracked volumes during bull markets dating back to 1957, countered that while volumes have fallen, it's 'not off the charts as that unusual.'
Others see the decline in volume as a reaction to all the negative news of the past few years.

'Emotionally, ordinary investors are beat-up -- their 401(k)s are in the tank, their house is underwater, there's mistrust on Wall Street,' said Keith Springer, president of Capital Financial Advisory Services. 'It's going to be like this until we get a big movement on the stock market. What draws people and gets them involved is the feeling that they're being left behind.'

Mark Gongloff contributed to this article.

所有交易员都哪儿去了？

今年9月是几十年来股市表现最好的9月份，但不是所有人都参与了这轮股市上涨。对冲基金、高频交易公司和散户投资者都减少了股票交易，第三季度成交量比第二季度低25%。

过去三个月纽约证交所、纳斯达克市场和美国证券交易所的日均成交量为71亿股，远低于2010年迄今日均88亿股的成交量，回到了过去两年多未见的低成交量水平。

成交量较低令人怀疑9月涨势是否真的标志投资者信心的广泛回归，这也令即将到来的银行、经纪公司和证交所财报季节阴云密布，这些企业依赖市场的波动而生存。对于那些留在交易大厅的人来说，每天的日子真是难熬。

Icap Corporates的董事总经理宝加利（Kenneth Polcari）说，这是挫折吗，当然是；我希望这里更繁忙一些，但这是经济问题。宝加利有在纽约证交所交易大厅工作27年的经验。

许多投资者和交易员将成交清淡归因于人们持续忧虑美国经济状况、欧洲主权债务危机和对中国经济增长的担心。金融危机期间的大跌、5月6日的闪电崩盘、以及电脑交易的崛起，只是加剧了投资者的忧虑。

交易量下降使人们只能勉强维持生计。达拉斯对冲基金Harlow Capital Management的主管哈洛（Colby Harlow）说，他的交易量比一年前少多了。他管理着大约1.25亿美元资产。哈洛说，如果股市没有波动性，我就不能买进卖出。他已将部分资金从通常持有股票约三个月的多空股票投资组合中撤出，将投资转为买入并持有的策略，以此策略他将多数证券持有一年或更长时间。

在线经纪公司TD Ameritrade的8月份平均日成交量从5月的48.4万股降至约30.9万股。该机构的资深副总裁夸克（Steve Quirk）说，尽管9月份的数据尚未出炉，但可能会更低。

夸克说，整个行业的交易量都在下降。TD Ameritrade表示，目前这股势头正在蔓延到外汇和期货交易市场。

此前原为场内交易员的夸克说，我们跟很多人说了这种情况，他们都在等待尘埃落定。

就是目前这样的成交量，大部分还是受益于高频交易员，他们使用电脑进行快速押注。拜他们所赐，目前的股市交易量仍高于2000年初，当时日均成交量约为39亿股。

不过近期，就是高频交易商也放缓了操作。

根据TABB Group估算，今年迄今高频交易在美国股票交易中所占比例已从去年同期的61%降至53%。

Sandler O'Neill & Partners的分析师丽派朵（Richard Repetto）说，客户持续从对冲基金撤资，华尔街交易专柜交易量下降，以及市场波动性下降，均使高频交易员保持了几年的势头受到影响。

丽派朵说，他们缺乏其他交易员作交易对手。

根据美国投资公司协会（Investment Company Institute）的数据，4月底以来已有694亿美元净流出美国国内股票共同基金。美国投资公司协会是基金经理的同业公会。

根据美国证券业与金融市场协会（Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association）的数据，同期内有近1,230亿美元流入债券基金，带动今年美国国债日均成交量较上年同期增长26%。美国国债日均成交量近5,000亿美元，成交量在过去10年内增加了一倍多。

德意志银行（Deutsche Bank AG）的股票交易全球主管德尔哈利（Kerim Derhalli）说，对于大型和小型股票投资者来说，最流行的方式是观望。

国际投资银行集团Execution Noble的首席市场策略师本塞诺（Rick Bensignor）说，他的客户在听取他的投资建议方面非常犹豫。

本塞诺说，过去我向客户推荐股票的时候，客户可能会说，给我买10万股吧，而现在可能会说，给我买8万或7.5万股吧；就是说买，这些交易也不会很快进行。

本塞诺说，基本上对股票交易一窍不通的一代散户已成为过去。

Birinyi Associates的鲁宾（Jeff Rubin）持反对意见，他举1957年以来的牛市成交量数据为证说，尽管成交量下降，但并不异乎寻常，没有打破旧纪录。

其他人认为，成交量下降是对过去几年所有负面消息的反应。

Capital Financial Advisory Services的总裁斯普林格（Keith Springer）说，从情感上说，普通投资者受到打压，他们的401k养老金计划大幅减少，房价在缩水，他们不信任华尔街。在股市大幅波动前，情况会一直是这样。斯普林格说，能吸引人们重新投身股市的因素是他们感觉自己落后于市场潮流了。