【英语国际】分析:美国阻止中国进口商品

双语秀   2016-05-17 04:09   83   0  

2010-10-12 01:43

小艾摘要: Among Washington’s weapons in its negotiations with Beijing is the nuclear option: blocking Chinese imports unilaterally in retaliation for an undervalued renminbi.In the spirit of creating a credibl ...
Among Washington’s weapons in its negotiations with Beijing is the nuclear option: blocking Chinese imports unilaterally in retaliation for an undervalued renminbi.

In the spirit of creating a credible threat, the House of Representatives recently voted for a bill that would allow the US to do just that. But the bill was considerably watered down from more drastic earlier versions – and the signs are that it is likely to remain a potential rather than an actual weapon in the near-term.

The bill, which commanded a comfortable majority in the House, would allow the Commerce department to take estimates of currency undervaluation into account when calculating the “countervailing duties” that it can impose on imports it deems state-subsidised.

The bill was very much narrower than a version paraded around the Senate for years by Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, and Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, which would simply have hit all Chinese imports with an across-the-board 27.5 per cent tariff – a clear violation of World Trade Organisation rules, something Congress generally avoids for fear of retaliation.

Messrs Schumer and Graham have rewritten their version into something similar to the House bill. Mr Schumer says he intends to push it through the Senate in the so-called “lame duck” session between November’s midterm elections and the new Congress reconvening in January.

But Congressional process-watchers say it is still unlikely to make it into law. Even if the Senate does pass a version, it will need to be “reconciled” with the House bill. By then the new Congress will be in place and, on the likely assumption that the Republicans retake the House, the chairman of the ways and means committee that oversees such matters will be the Michigan Republican Dave Camp.

Although Mr Camp voted for the House version of the bill, he has already said that currency legislation is not among his priorities, so the proposal will most likely languish unless Congress wants to increase the pressure on Beijing. “It will look as if we are getting closer to actual legislation when in reality we are not,” says Derek Scissors of the conservative Heritage Foundation.

But the possibility of the bill becoming law is still a useful bargaining chip, including for those in Beijing who are arguing for a faster appreciation for the renminbi. These include the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, for whom a higher market-determined exchange rate would help curb inflation and moderate destabilising capital inflow. But, observers say, the PBOC often clashes with the ministries representing Chinese exporters.

“One of the ways the PBOC has gained leverage over the export lobby is to be able to point at currency legislation,” Mr Scissors says.



美国政府与中国政府谈判的武器之一便是其“核选择”:单方面阻止中国进口商品,以报复人民币被低估。

本着构成切实威胁的精神,美国众议院最近投票通过了一项允许美国这样做的法案。但该法案已较之前几个更严厉的版本有了明显缓和——这些信号表明,在短期内,它可能仍然是一种潜在可能,而非实际武器。

该法案在众议院获得了绝对多数的赞成票,将允许美国商务部对其视为获得了政府补贴的进口商品计算“反补贴税”时,将估算的汇率低估幅度纳入考虑范围。

相比于纽约州民主党议员查克?舒默(Chuck Schumer)和南卡罗来纳州共和党议员林塞?格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)多年来在参议院鼓吹的提案,刚刚通过的法案涉及面要窄得多。两位议员提议,针对所有中国进口商品全面征收27.5%的关税——这明显违反了世界贸易组织(WTO)的规定,而国会通常会避免此类行为,以免遭到报复。

舒默和格雷厄姆已经将自己的提案修改得接近于众议院的法案。舒默表示,他打算在11月份的中期选举与明年1月新国会再次开会之间这段所谓的“无为”期,推动参议院通过该提案。

但国会观察人士表示,该提案仍不太可能形成法律。即使参议院真的通过了某个版本,它也必须与众议院的法案相“调和”。届时,新国会将会就位,而按照共和党人将再度掌控众议院的可能假设,密歇根州共和党议员戴维?坎普(Dave Camp)将出任监督此类事务的众议院筹款委员会(ways and means committee)主席。

尽管坎普对众议院的法案投了赞成票,但他已表示,对汇率立法不在他的要务之列,因此该提案极有可能不了了之,除非国会希望加大对北京的施压力度。保守的美国传统基金会(Heritage Foundation)研究员史剑道(Derek Scissors)表示:“看上去我们离实际立法又近了一步,但实际上并没有。”

但对于一些人而言,该法案成为法律的可能性仍是一个有用的筹码,其中就包括中国政府内部那些赞成人民币更快升值的人,例如中国央行(PBoC)。对于他们而言,由市场决定的较高汇率有助于抑制通胀,减少会破坏稳定的资本流入。但观察人士称,中国央行常常与代表中国出口商的部门发生冲突。

史剑道表示:“中国央行之所以能对游说团体占据上风,手段之一就是能够搬出汇率立法。”

译者/何黎



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