【英语国际】FT社评：巴西令国际金融界瞩目

The expression “riche comme un Argentin” was popular in Paris a century ago, when Argentina was one of the world’s 10 wealthiest countries. Today the phrase could be reworked to “rich as a Brazilian”, given last week’s share offering by Petrobras – the world’s biggest ever. At $67bn, the state-controlled oil company raised a sum roughly equivalent to the annual economic output of a reasonably-sized country such as Iraq. And, as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva crowed (if not entirely accurately), it all took place in S?o Paulo.

This projection of financial might comes just a week before the presidential election. That is handy but not decisive for Dilma Rousseff, given that the former Petrobras chairwoman and Mr Lula da Silva’s anointed successor is expected to romp home anyway. Globally, though, Petrobras’ offering is more than just a big deal. It is a marker of Brazil’s growing international financial presence.

Giant companies such as Odebrecht have long been active abroad, but mostly in Latin America. Globally, lusophone corporate imperialism is better known via the likes of Vale and JBS, the world’s largest meat producing group. Brazilian banks, such as Itaú-Unibanco, the world’s eighth biggest by market capitalisation, have followed such clients abroad. All are known dealmakers, and globally active issuers of equity and debt.

Petrobras’ offering, however, has introduced a whole new investor audience. Hitherto, most knew Brazil for its bonds – especially in Japan, where retail investors bought some $8bn of sovereign debt this year. China prefers direct investment. Either way, Brazil needs this international reach to fund a current account deficit running at about $50bn a year. Investors seem happy to stump up. During the credit crunch, Brazil was one of few emerging countries to enjoy continued net inflows.

The globalisation of Brazilian finance will be felt increasingly in international centres. New York is a traditional regional hub, but London (the same flying time from S?o Paulo) is gaining ground, in part thanks to its timezone which allows South-to-South trades to be executed the same working day. It is no accident that BNDES, Brazil’s development bank, with a balance sheet larger than the World Bank’s and aspirations to become Brazil’s sovereign wealth fund manager, chose London as its main foreign office.

As hedge funds threaten to decamp from London to less taxed climes, the City need not panic. The Brazilians are coming instead.

一个世纪前，巴黎曾流行这样一句话，叫做“富如阿根廷人”。当时，阿根廷是全球最富裕的十个国家之一。今天，这句话可以改成“富如巴西人”，因为上周巴西国家石油公司(Petrobras)进行了有史以来全球最大规模的新股增发。这家国有控股石油公司在此次增发中筹资670亿美元，大致相当于伊拉克这样的中等国家一年的经济产出。而且，正如巴西总统卢拉(Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva)欢呼的那样（如果说他讲的并不完全准确的话），这一切都发生在圣保罗。

此次财力彰显发生在巴西总统大选一周前。它对迪尔玛?罗塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)有所帮助，但并不具有决定意义，因为外界预计，这位Petrobras的前董事长及卢拉选定的继任者，无论如何都将在大选中轻易胜出。不过，从全球角度看，Petrobras的增发绝不仅仅是一宗大型交易。它反映出巴西对国际金融的影响力正日益增强。

长期以来，Odebrecht等企业巨擎在海外一直较为活跃，但主要是在拉美地区。从全球来看，葡语企业帝国主义的知名度更多是靠淡水河谷(Vale)和全球最大肉类生产集团JBS之类的企业树立起来的。巴西的银行——如市值排名全球第八的巴西伊塔乌联合银行(Itaú-Unibanco)——纷纷追随这些客户涉足海外市场。它们全都是些知名的交易撮合商，也是全球范围内活跃的股票及债券发行商。

但Petrobras的增发却为巴西带来了全新的投资者群体。迄今为止，大多数投资者是通过巴西的债券认识这个国家的——尤其是在日本，今年，该国散户投资者购买了约80亿美元的巴西主权债务。中国则更倾向于直接投资。无论是哪种方式的投资，巴西都需要通过此类获取国际资金的渠道，为本国每年约500亿美元的经常账户赤字融资。投资者似乎乐意掏这笔钱。在信贷危机期间，巴西是为数不多的几个拥有净资金流入的新兴国家之一。

国际金融中心将越来越明显地感受到巴西金融全球化的趋势。纽约是北美地区传统的金融中心，但伦敦（从圣保罗飞往伦敦和纽约的航程相同）的重要性正在上升，这在一定程度上是因为，伦敦所在的时区使得“南南”交易能够在同一工作日内（在伦敦）得到执行。巴西国家开发银行(BNDES)选择伦敦作为其海外的主要办事处决非偶然。BNDES的资产负债规模比世界银行(World Bank)还要大，并且正致力于成为巴西主权财富基金的管理者。

虽然对冲基金扬言要从伦敦迁至税收较低的地区，但金融城却无须恐慌，因为巴西人正向这里走来。

译者/汪洋