【英语国际】前原诚司为日本干预汇率做公关

U.S. congressmen before midterm elections, like bees in the fall, can be quick to sting. So it was smart of Japan's new foreign minister to lay out the case in the U.S. last week for why his country isn't stirring the nest on currency policy.

Congress is already agitated over China's keeping the yuan cheap. Let the buzzing stay focused on Beijing. Tokyo's recent yen-selling intervention is a kinder, gentler kind of exchange rate guidance -- nothing to swarm about, Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara suggested in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

Mr. Maehara's remarks could be read as an attempt to stave off further criticism of the kind that House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Sander Levin (D., Mich.) leveled at Tokyo soon after Japan intervened on Sept. 15. 'China is not the only country with a predatory exchange rate policy,' Mr. Levin said. He called Japan's move 'deeply disturbing.'

Mr. Maehara wasted no time pushing back against the idea, odious to Tokyo, that Japanese intervention would be in any way comparable to Beijing's currency controls, which critics say keep the yuan artificially low, giving Chinese exports an unfair advantage.

Asked to justify Japan's recent yen-selling, Mr. Maehara responded by first bringing up the yuan. President Barack Obama told Prime Minister Naoto Kan in their meeting on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly 'that the yuan should be revalued,' Mr. Maehara said. 'On the other hand, with respect to the Japanese yen, the yen has strengthened more than indicated by the actual strength of the Japanese economy,' he said, adding that speculative moves have been a factor here.

The message could not be clearer. Recent yen strength has been caused in part by speculation and doesn't jive with the fundamentals. Yen strength, in other words, is artificial. Tokyo's intervention is only meant to set things back to their natural order. China's yuan policy, in contrast, is itself the direct cause of market imbalances.

So far it seems many countries may be sympathetic to this view. The only other major high-level criticism of Japan's intervention came from Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who heads meetings of the eurozone finance ministers. But Mr. Juncker was content to keep his critique general, saying eurogroup partners 'don't like unilateral intervention.'

Many foreign exchange traders, in Japan and elsewhere, had speculated before the Japanese government waded into markets that it may have been hesitating to do so for fear of bringing even tangential comparisons with China down on its head. But it now appears that these traders underemphasized the possibility of international tolerance for Japanese intervention if it appeared designed to correct imbalances.

Echoing Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, Mr. Maehara said in the interview that Japan could again 'show its very determined intent' to prevent 'further appreciation of the yen.'

Whether further action could continue to avoid stirring up the congressional hive may depend on how well Japan can keep communicating its message internationally. Mr. Maehara's move was a good start.

The notion that the yen is unnaturally high, or that speculators are in part to blame for that, is debatable. But one thing is sure. The intervention sent many of those speculators for the exits. In the week to Sept. 21, following the Sept. 15 intervention, currency speculators cut contracts betting on the yen nearly in half to 23,100 from 47,642 in the previous week, the most recent data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows.

中期选举前的美国国会议员就像秋天的蜜蜂，挺爱蜇人的。所以，日本新上任的外务大臣上周在美国摆事实讲道理，说日本的汇率政策并没有捅到他们的蜂窝，实属聪明之举。

美国国会已经因为中国压低人民币汇率而烦躁不安，那就让蜂群留在北京的脑袋上嗡嗡响吧。日本外相前原诚司(Seiji Maehara)在接受《华尔街日报》采访时暗示，东京最近抛售日圆的干预措施是一种更加友善、更为温柔的汇率指导，不值得蜜蜂们前去围攻。

前原诚司的这番话可以被解读为，他是要防止美国众议院筹款委员会(House Ways and Means Committee)主席列文(Sander Levin，来自密歇根州的民主党人)的那种批评声再次出现。日本在9月15日采取干预措施后不久，列文就说，中国并不是唯一一个实施掠夺性汇率政策的国家，日本此举“让人深感不安”。

按批评者的说法，中国的汇率管制人为压低了人民币汇率，使其出口商获得了不公平的竞争优势。把日本的干预措施与北京的汇率管制拿来做比较，对于东京来说是十分不入耳的，前原诚司马上予以反击。

在被问到日本近期抛售日圆的理由时，前原诚司首先谈到了人民币。他说，美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)在联合国大会(General Assembly)的间隙会见日本首相菅直人(Naoto Kan)时表示，人民币应当重估。前原诚司说，至于日圆，它的升值幅度已经超过了日本经济实力的允许度，另外，日圆升值的背后存在着投机因素。

话说得再明白不过了。近期日圆升值在一定程度上是投机造成的，和基本面不符。换句话说，日圆走强是人为的，东京的干预只是为了让事情回归正常秩序。相比之下，中国的人民币汇率政策本身就是造成市场失衡的直接原因。

到目前为止，好像很多国家都认可这种观点。除列文外，唯一提出批评意见的高层人士就是卢森堡首相、欧元区财长会议召集人容克(Jean-Claude Juncker)。但容克的批评也只是泛泛而论，他说欧元集团成员国“不喜欢单边干预”。

在日本政府干预汇市之前，日本和其他地区很多外汇交易员曾经猜测，日本政府可能担心外界拿它和中国相提并论，因而一直在犹豫要不要干预。但如果日本的干预看起来是为了纠正失衡的话，国际社会是有可能容忍这一做法的，现在看来，这些交易员似乎低估了这种可能性。

前原诚司在访谈中呼应日本财务大臣野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)的话说，日本可能再次展示出防止“日圆进一步升值”的坚定意愿。

日本进一步干预汇市是否还能避免搅动美国国会的蜂巢，或许取决于日本在向国际社会传达信息方面做得怎么样。前原诚司的做法是一个良好开始。

日圆高得不正常、或投机者要承担部分罪责的说法，虽然值得商榷，但有一件事是确定无疑的，即干预赶跑了很多投机者。美国商品期货交易委员会(U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission)的最新数据显示，9月15日干预过后，在截至9月21日的一个星期里，汇市投机者看涨日圆的合约从前一个星期的47,642张下降到了23,100张，几乎减少了一半。