【英语国际】中俄石油管道预示两国关系进入新时代

The leaders of China and Russia are due Monday to celebrate the completion of the first oil pipeline between the giant neighbors, heralding a new era of energy cooperation and another symbolic eastward shift in the global balance of economic power.

Hu Jintao, China's president, and his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, are scheduled to attend a ceremony in Beijing to mark the opening of the Chinese section of the pipeline, which stretches from Skovorodino in eastern Siberia to Daqing in northeastern China.

With the Russian section completed last month, Russian oil is set to start flowing later this month to China, which will receive 300,000 barrels a day for the next two decades under a $25 billion loan-for-oil agreement struck last year.

The pipeline's completion symbolizes a new phase of relations between Russia and China -- now respectively the world's biggest oil producer and biggest energy consumer -- after decades of mutual distrust dating back to a bitter row over Communist ideology in 1956.

It also reflects a shift toward closer commercial and political ties between two of the world's largest emerging economies after two decades in which relations were largely restricted to Russian arms sales to China, and opportunistic anti-American cooperation in international bodies.

Driving the relationship now is Russia's desire to divert more of its energy exports away from Europe, its traditional market, and into China and other fast-growing Asian economies. Beijing wants to improve its energy security by diversifying sources and supply routes.

The pipeline is expected to double Russian oil exports to China -- now transported mainly via a slow and expensive railway route -- and to make Russia one of China's top three crude-oil suppliers alongside Saudi Arabia and Angola.

Messrs. Hu and Medvedev also are expected to discuss a gas-supply deal, which Russia says could be finalized next year, and an agreement last month to build a $5 billion joint-venture oil refinery in China's eastern city of Tianjin.

Also last month, China agreed to lend Russia an additional $6 billion in exchange for increased coal supplies for the next 25 years.

The flurry of deals has raised fears in Russia that it could become little more than an energy and raw-materials supplier for China, while some experts in Beijing worry that Moscow could use the new pipeline as a foreign-policy tool -- as it has used its gas supplies to Europe.

'Given Russia's record, China will still be reluctant to allow it to become the major supplier,' said Hooman Peimani, head of energy security and geopolitics at the Energy Studies Institute in Singapore.

Both sides have lingering suspicions about each others' long-term ambitions, and Russia worries particularly about Chinese economic influence in, and migration to, its sparsely populated far east.

Yet political ties have improved rapidly in recent years, with large joint military exercises held since 2005 and the resolution of a four-decade dispute over their vast land border in 2008. They now share common ground on a range of issues, including Central Asian security cooperation, the establishment of a global reserve currency to replace the dollar and overhaul of international financial institutions.

Bilateral trade grew to almost $60 billion by 2008 from about $5 billion in 2000 and is expected to reach a similar level this year, after slumping in 2009 amid the global economic crisis. Russia is also set to start trading in the Chinese yuan against the ruble by the end of 2010 in a step toward settling bilateral trade in national currencies.

The driving force behind the improving ties, however, is a convergence of energy interests.

The pipeline plan was driven by Russia's desire to wean itself off European markets, partly because of political confrontations over the past decade, and to seize a share of the growing Asian market from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The Daqing pipeline is a spur from Russia's longer East Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline, designed to stretch to Russia's eastern coast and to feed the Japanese, South Korean and other Asian-Pacific markets.

For China, the pipeline fits its strategy to secure new energy sources and alternative delivery routes to imports by sea from the Middle East that make up the bulk of its supply and could potentially be cut off by a naval blockade in the Straits of Malacca.

An oil pipeline to Kazakhstan was built in 2006 and expanded last year, and a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan, another former Soviet republic, was opened last year.

China also began building an oil-and-gas pipeline through Myanmar this month, and is considering an oil pipeline through Pakistan.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin summed up the significance of the Russia-China pipeline at a ceremony last month marking the completion of the 2,100-kilometer Russian section. 'For China, these are stable deliveries to the country's energy balance, and for us an exit to new promising markets and in this particular case, to the expanding Chinese market,' he said.

中国和俄罗斯的领导人将于周一庆祝两国间首条石油管道的竣工，这不仅预示着一个能源合作的新时代，也预示着全球经济实力平衡再一次象征性的东移。

Dmitry Astakhov/AFP/Getty Images梅德韦杰夫的中国之行按照计划，中国国家主席胡锦涛与俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)将在北京出席庆祝中俄石油管道中国段开通的活动。这条两国间的石油管道从东西伯利亚的斯克沃洛季诺一直延伸到中国东北部的大庆。

由于俄罗斯段石油管道已于上月完工，俄罗斯石油将从本月晚些时候开始输向中国。根据两国去年达成的一项250亿美元的“贷款换石油”协议，未来二十年内中国每天将接获300,000桶石油。

该管道的竣工标志着中俄关系在经过了数十年的相互不信任后进入了一个新阶段，这种不信任始于1956年时对于共产主义意识形态的严重争吵。中国和俄罗斯目前分别是世界上最大的能源消耗国和能源生产国。

它还反映出这两个全球最大新兴经济体朝着加强商业和政治联系的一次转变，在这之前的二十年间两国间的关系很大程度上仅限于俄罗斯对华出售武器，以及在国际组织中适时进行的反美合作。

发展对华关系目前符合俄罗斯欲将能源出口更多的从其传统的欧洲市场分流出去的想法，它希望将能源更多的出口到中国和其他快速发展的亚洲经济体。中国则希望通过增加供应源和供应线路来改善自己的能源安全状况。

Associated Press俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫在大连参观苏军纪念馆时与中俄二战老兵合影。这条中俄石油管道有望使俄罗斯对华石油出口增加一倍，从而令它与沙特阿拉伯及安哥拉一道，成为中国的三大原油供应国之一。目前，俄罗斯对华石油出口主要是通过一条缓慢且费用昂贵的铁路线路输送。

胡锦涛与梅德韦杰夫可能还将讨论一个天然气供应交易，以及上月达成的将在中国天津建造一座50亿美元的合资炼油厂的协议。俄罗斯说，天然气供应交易将在明年尘埃落定。

也是在上个月，中国同意向俄罗斯追加60亿美元的贷款，以此获得今后25年煤炭供应量的增加。

这一系列交易在俄罗斯引发了担忧，有人担心俄罗斯对中国来说可能除了能源和原材料供应国之外少有其他意义，而有些中国的专家也担心，俄罗斯也许会利用这条新管道作为自己的外交政策工具，就像它利用对欧洲的天然气供应那样。

新加坡能源研究中心(Energy Studies Institute)能源安全和地缘政治问题负责人佩玛尼(Hooman Peimani)说，考虑到俄罗斯过去的行为，中国仍将不愿让它成为自己的主要供应国。

中俄双方对彼此存有的长期野心都有着挥之不去的疑虑，尤其令俄罗斯感到担心的是中国对其人口稀少的远东地区的经济影响力以及中国向远东的移民问题。

不过两国间的政治关系近年来迅速改善，双方不但自2005年以来举行了数次大规模联合军事演习，2008年时还解决了持续四十年的中俄漫长边境线的边界划分争端。如今中国和俄罗斯在一系列问题上都拥有共同立场，包括中亚安全合作、建立一种全球储备货币以取代美元以及改革国际金融组织。

双边贸易从2000年时的约50亿美元增至2008年时的近600亿美元，今年有望达到类似水平，此前2009年时中俄贸易曾在全球经济危机中出现下滑。俄罗斯将在2010年底前推出卢布兑人民币交易，进而朝着在双边贸易结算中使用两国本币迈进了一步。

然而，推动两国关系改善的背后因素却是一系列能源利益的集合。

上述石油管道计划之所以成形得益于俄罗斯希望摆脱对欧洲市场的依赖，这在某种程度上是因为过去十年间的政治对抗，以及它想从石油输出国组织(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)手中分得不断发展的亚洲市场的一杯羹。

这条通至大庆的管道是俄罗斯更长距离的东西伯利亚-太平洋管道的一条支线，按照设计，这条石油管道将延伸至俄罗斯东部海岸，供给日本、韩国及其他亚太市场。

对中国来说，这条管道符合其寻获新的能源来源以及为来自中东的海上进口寻找替代输送线路的发展战略。来自中东、经由海路进口的石油占据着中国石油供应的主体，而它可能会因为马六甲海峡的海上封锁而被切断。

通往哈萨克斯坦的一条石油管道已于2006年兴建，并在去年被扩大。此外，一条输自土库曼斯坦的天然气管道也于去年开通。

中国本月还开始兴建一条与缅甸间的油气管道，并在考虑一条通过巴基斯坦的石油管道。

俄罗斯总理普京(Vladimir Putin)在上月庆祝中俄管道长 2,100公里的俄罗斯段竣工的活动上总结了这条管道的重要意义。他说，对中国来说，它为保证中国能源平衡提供了稳定的供应，对于我们来说，它给我们带来了具有发展前景的新市场，而就这个特殊的情况而言，它带来的是拓展中的中国市场。