【英语国际】美国携手东盟抗衡中国的亚洲影响力

The U.S. and its Asian allies are starting to push back at China's growing assertiveness in the region, strengthening security ties and taking more robust positions in territorial disputes in the East and South China seas.

The newest evidence of the resistance is set to come on Friday when President Barack Obama is due to discuss the South China Sea -- almost all of which is claimed by China -- during a lunch in New York with leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean. The meeting will take place on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York and will follow Mr. Obama's meeting Thursday with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.

Ahead of the meeting, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong told The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday he plans to tell Mr. Obama that the U.S. needs to maintain an activist presence in Asia to show it is 'here to stay' as a power in the Pacific.

'America plays a role in Asia that China cannot replace,' he said, which includes 'maintaining peace in the region.'

Japan -- the main U.S. ally in the region -- is leading the way in confronting China, taking an unusually firm line in a dispute over a collision between a Chinese fishing trawler and two Japanese coast guard ships near disputed islands in the East China Sea two weeks ago.

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku called Wednesday for high-level bilateral talks between Japan and China to ease tensions.

Southeast Asian nations are also quietly pushing back, with several encouraging the U.S. to assert its own national interests, especially in the South China Sea, parts of which are claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei.

South Korea, which has burgeoning commercial ties with China, has been alienated by Beijing's refusal to condemn the sinking of a South Korean warship in March, which an international investigation blamed on North Korea.

The simultaneous backlash suggests a broad failure of diplomacy from China, which has long strived to achieve balance in its foreign relations, and has poured aid and investment into Southeast Asia in the past decade.

One explanation put forward by analysts is that China's diplomatic tone has become more arrogant as it emerges stronger than ever from the global economic crisis, reinforcing deep-seated anxieties in the region about how it will project its new power.

Others say that what appears to be a clumsier foreign policy reflects how the People's Liberation Army, unpracticed in diplomacy, is starting to call the shots on matters of key national interest, including the South China Sea. The PLA's influence in domestic politics is growing in the run-up to a leadership transition in 2012, as aspirants to top Communist Party posts court powerful generals for support.

Public opinion in China is also playing a role, as diplomats -- already struggling to cope with multiplying international engagements -- are now also under pressure to talk tough to appease nationalistic sentiment inflamed by populist newspapers and academics.

A newly invigorated U.S. foreign policy toward Asia is further stirring up diplomatic rivalries as Washington competes with China for regional influence after a decade of focusing on Iraq and, more recently, Afghanistan.

'What you see here is Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia, backed by the United States, trying to manage an emergent China that's pushing the envelope,' said Ernest Bower, director of the Southeast Asia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

On Friday, Mr. Obama and the Asean leaders will issue a joint statement in which Washington has proposed text reaffirming the importance of freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, according to the Associated Press.

It said the statement would oppose the 'use or threat of force by any claimant attempting to enforce disputed claims in the South China Sea.'

The wording is significant -- and provocative for China - because it mirrors that of a speech by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at another Asean meeting in Hanoi in July.

That speech was a response to Chinese officials' assertion, in a meeting with U.S. counterparts in March, that Beijing viewed the South China Sea as one of its 'core national interests' -- on a par with Tibet and Taiwan -- meaning it saw no room for compromise.

Several Southeast Asian nations are understood to have encouraged Mrs. Clinton to make the statement, which her Chinese counterpart, Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, described as an 'attack' on China.

Mr. Lee, the Singapore prime minister, said that Mrs. Clinton's remarks were a 'useful reminder' of the U.S.'s crucial role in the region and the importance of freedom of navigation there. Singapore, because of its role as an advanced economy and important financial center, and possibly thanks to its longstanding strong relations with the U.S., may feel more comfortable about voicing such views than other countries in the region.

Vietnam, meanwhile, which is leading Asean this year, held its first defense talks with the U.S. in August, 15 years after the two countries normalized relations.

Tensions between China and Vietnam, too, have been growing since last fall, when Hanoi accused Chinese military personnel of beating and robbing Vietnamese fishermen who sought shelter from a typhoon in the South China Sea.

Carlyle Thayer, a Southeast Asia expert and professor at the University of New South Wales in Canberra, says that some Southeast Asian countries look at China and think: 'You've been telling us about your peaceful rise for years, but it does not look peaceful to us,' he said. 'This is not what we want.'

On Monday, White House spokesman Ben Rhodes said Mr. Obama planned to use Friday's lunch with Asean leaders to build on Mrs. Clinton's July meeting in Hanoi. 'Secretary Clinton . . . articulated some very important views during her recent meetings with Asean,' Mr. Rhodes said. 'And so I do believe the president will follow on those discussions.'

Although several Asean members back the proposed text for Friday's communique, it will likely to be toned down in order to avoid antagonizing Beijing, according to Asian diplomats.

'It didn't seem like the right time to get into heavy China-bashing,' said a senior Asian official involved in the lunch's preparations. The White House declined to comment on the discussions over the communique.

China has pre-empted the summit by voicing its opposition to the U.S. proposals on the South China Sea.

'We firmly oppose any country having nothing to do with the South China Sea issue getting involved in the dispute,' Jiang Yu, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, said Tuesday. 'This will only complicate rather than help solve the issue.'

Nonetheless, China does appear to be gradually pulling back from its 'core interest' assertion, with some Chinese experts suggesting it was an unwise move, and others disputing that it happened at all.

Evidence of the backlash -- and its effect on China -- is apparent in the current dispute between Beijing and Tokyo over the ship collision near the disputed islands called Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan. Japan has released the trawler and the 14 crew, but continues to detain the ship's captain.

China has summoned Japan's ambassador six times and suspended high-level government exchanges. Mr. Wen, China's premier, personally demanded the captain's release on Tuesday. Yet Tokyo has stood firm, apparently gambling that Beijing doesn't want to damage commercial relations or provoke the kind of anti-Japanese violence that almost spiraled out of control during a similar row in 2005.

'Clinton's stand in Hanoi may have contributed to Japan's demonstration of more backbone than most of us give it credit for having in its current territorial confrontation with China,' said Mark Borthwick, director of the United States Asia Pacific Council at the East-West Center in Washington.

'If that's the case, the strategy is working, because for it to work, there has [to be] an underlying assumption by our partners and allies of unwavering U.S. attention and support.'

美国与其亚洲盟国开始纷纷压制中国在亚洲地区日益膨胀的自信，它们加强彼此的安全联系，对于中国东海和南海的领土纷争采取更为坚定的态度。

压制中国的最新明证将于周五显现，届时美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)将在纽约与东南亚国家联盟(Association of Southeast Asian Nations)领导人共进午餐，期间讨论南中国海问题，中国几乎对所有南中国海海域都宣称拥有主权。会议将在纽约联合国大会(U.N. General Assembly)间隙举行，之前奥巴马还要在周四与中国国务院总理温家宝进行会晤。

Bloomberg News美国国务卿克林顿7月份在河内发表的言论被中国视为一种“攻击”。奥巴马会见东盟领袖之前，新加坡总理李显龙(Lee Hsien Loong)周二接受了《华尔街日报》的采访。他说，准备在会议上告诉奥巴马，美国应维持在亚洲的积极形象，以此显示它会继续保持太平洋地区强国的姿态。

他说，美国在亚洲的角色是中国所不能替代的，其中包括维持地区和平。

美国在亚洲的主要盟国日本正带头跟中国对抗，两周前中国东海争议岛屿附近中国渔船与两艘日本海岸护卫舰相撞事件惹起了两国的争端，日本对此采取了不同寻常的强硬态度。

日本内阁官房长官仙谷由人(Yoshito Sengoku)周三呼吁日中双方举行高层对话，缓解紧张局势。

东南亚国家也在默默压制中国的主权自信，其中有好几个国家鼓动美国维持其国家利益，尤其是在南中国海的利益，越南、菲律宾、马来西亚、印度尼西亚和文莱均声称对部分南中国海拥有主权。

韩国与中国商贸往来迅速扩大，但因北京拒绝谴责3月韩国舰艇沉没事件，韩国与中国关系疏离。国际调查结果将韩国舰艇的沉没归咎于朝鲜。

亚洲国家在同一时间的群起而攻之说明中国外交出现大范围失败，长久以来中国为实现外交关系的平衡一直不懈努力，过去十年为东南亚提供了大量援助和资金。

对此，分析人士提出的一种解释是，中国经过世界经济危机的洗礼变得更加强大，其外交态度也随之愈发傲慢，这进一步加深了亚洲各国深藏心底的焦虑，它们不知中国要如何释放自己的新力量。

其它分析人士说，中国推行的一项似乎不太得体的外交政策体现出，在外交方面经验不足的中国人民解放军，开始对包括南中国海问题等关系国家利益的重要大事发号施令。2012年中国领导人将进行换届选举，在此之前解放军对国内政治的影响力不断增强，因有意问鼎中共高层交椅的政治家们要寻求实力强大的军界人物支持。

另外，中国社会舆论也是其外交政策失败的一个原因，中国外交官在竭力应对不断升级的国际纷争的同时，现在还要面临国内压力，民众希望其态度强硬，以安抚民粹报纸和学术界点燃的民族主义情绪。

美国出台了一项针对亚洲的焕然一新的外交政策。这进一步激起了美中之间的外交对抗，继美国用十年时间关注伊拉克问题以及近几年又聚焦阿富汗问题之后，华盛顿开始了与中国在亚洲地区影响力方面的角逐。

美国战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)东南亚项目负责人鲍尔(Ernest Bower)说，亚洲现在的情况是，日本、韩国和东南亚在美国的支持之下，试图对付突然崛起、所作所为超越其忍耐限度的中国。

据美联社 (Associated Press) 消息，奥巴马和东盟领导人周五将发表联合声明，华盛顿方面草拟了声明文案，重申南中国海航道通畅的重要性。

美联社说，声明将反对任何声称自己对南中国海拥有主权的国家试图使用或威胁使用武力强制执行南中国海争议主权。

声明的措辞意义重大，对中国而言可以说极具挑衅，因为它反映出美国国务卿克林顿(Hillary Clinton)在7月越南河内东盟会议上的讲话内容。

希拉里的讲话是在3月份一次中美官员会议上对中国官员关于南中国海主张的回应，中国政府认为南中国海是其核心国家利益之一，与西藏和台湾处于同等地位，也就意味着在该问题上毫无商量余地。

据信，希拉里发表该言论是受到了部分东南亚国家的支持，中国外交部长杨洁篪称其为对中国的“攻击”。

新加坡总理李显龙说，希拉里的讲话对美国在该地区扮演的重要角色和自由航权的重要性起到了很好的提醒作用。作为一个发达经济体和重要的金融中心，由于其与美国长久以来的紧密关系，新加坡可能比该地区的其他国家更乐意听到这种观点。

同时，作为今年东盟会议的主办国家，越南在8月与美国举行了两国关系正常化15年以来的首次国防政策对话。

中国和越南的关系自去年秋天开始也一直处于日益紧张状态，河内指责中国军方人员对在南中国海躲避台风的越南渔民进行殴打和抢劫。

堪培拉新南威尔士大学（University of New South Wales）的东南亚专家和教授萨尔（Carlyle Thayer）说，一些东南亚国家看到中国就想：多年来你一直告诉我们你要和平崛起，但是在我们看来并不和平，这不是我们想要的。

周一，白宫发言人罗兹（Ben Rhodes）说，奥巴马希望利用周五与东盟领导人共进午餐的机会延续希拉里7月在河内的会议内容。罗德说，希拉里在最近与东盟的会议中发表了非常重要的观点，所以我认为总统先生会将这些讨论继续下去。

据亚洲外交官员说，虽然对周五公报所提出的案文一些东盟成员表示支持，但其措辞可能会加以调整以避免引起中国政府的敌对情绪。

参与午餐准备的一名高级亚洲官员说，现在似乎并不是严厉批评中国的合适时机。白宫拒绝对公报的讨论置评。

中国已经在峰会上先发制人地发表声明，表示其对美国关于南中国海提议的反对。

中国外交部发言人姜瑜说，我们坚决反对任何与南海问题无关的国家插手南海争议，这不仅解决不了问题，反而会使问题更加复杂。

虽然如此，中国确实有从其“核心利益”的主张逐渐退让的迹象，部分中国专家表示这是一个不明智的举动，而其他人争论说这是必然会发生的。

该事件的强烈反应及其对中国的影响很明显地反映在中日两国目前关于钓鱼岛（日本称为尖阁诸岛）争议领土的撞船事件中。日本已经释放了当事的中国渔船及14位船员，但仍继续拘押渔船的船长。

中国已经六次召见日本驻华大使，并暂停两国一切高级政府交往。中国总理温家宝周二亲自敦促日方释放中国船长。但是日方态度仍很坚决，很明显地赌定中国不愿意破坏商贸关系，也不愿意激起反日情绪的高涨，造成如同2005年一样失去控制的结果。

美国华盛顿东西中心（East-West Center）美国亚太委员会负责人伯希维格（Mark Borthwick）说，日本在当前与中国的领土争端对抗中表现出的强硬态度，也许比我们大部分人预期中要更多地受到了希拉里在河内的立场的影响。

如果真是这样，那么这个战略就在起作用，因为要它发挥作用，就需要我们的伙伴和同盟相信来自美国的坚定不移的关注和支持。