【英语国际】分析：中日冲突的走向

Two years after Japan and China sealed a historic natural gas joint development deal intended to turn the East China Sea into a “sea of peace [and] friendship”, the waters between the powers look more like a sea of friction and animosity.

A widening dispute over Japan’s detention of a Chinese fishing boat captain in contested waters is threatening to derail efforts to implement the 2008 deal, just as Japanese suspicions grow that China is expanding development of an undersea gas field that could draw fuel from areas to which it claims exclusive economic rights.

China has threatened to take “strong countermeasures” if Japan does not immediately release fishing captain Zhan Qixiong. Meanwhile, Tokyo is considering what measures if might take if China expands drilling at its controversial Chunxiao field close to the “median line” between the two nations.

Despite the rhetoric, Beijing has so far gone to considerable lengths to prevent the incident leading to the kind of anti-Japanese protests that took place in several Chinese cities in 2005. At the weekend, there was a huge security presence around the Japanese embassy in Beijing to prevent a small demonstration from escalating.

However, China has several public holidays in the next two weeks which could provide a catalyst for larger protests if Mr Zhan is not released soon. While Beijing does not want the incident to undermine the improvement in relations with Japan over the past three years, it will also want to avoid a public opinion backlash accusing it of being too soft on Tokyo.

While it is important not to take the tough Chinese rhetoric too seriously, the frictions over fishing grounds and gas fields underscore the risks inherent in Tokyo and Beijing’s overlapping claims in the East China Sea.

Even before the recent flare-up, Japan had growing concerns about the Chinese navy’s increasing willingness to show its fast-expanding “blue water” capabilities in the area. An encounter in April when a Chinese helicopter came within 90 metres of a Japanese destroyer sparked mutual diplomatic recriminations.

But the most obvious flashpoint is centred on the uninhabited Senkakus – known as the Diaoyu islands in China – which are controlled by Japan but claimed by China. Beijing sees Japanese control of the islands as a legacy of imperial aggression, but Tokyo argues that it has a watertight legal claim.

In the past, both sides have generally sought to avoid discussion of the dispute, but the clash between Mr Zhan and the Japanese coast guard has brought submerged tensions to the surface.

Mr Zhan is accused of running his boat into coast guard vessels that were trying to force him to leave the tuna-rich area. Japanese prosecutors are considering whether to bring criminal charges.

Japan’s coast guard has appeared heavy-handed in the past. In 2008, for example, it apologised for “negligence” in the case of a collision near the Senkakus that caused the sinking of a fishing boat from Taiwan, which also claims the islands. However, Japanese officials appear confident that this time it was Mr Zhan who was to blame for the incident, which was filmed by coast guard officers.

Tokyo diplomats say Beijing appears to be calculating that it can force a quick political resolution, a gamble forced in part by Chinese fears about the possibility that it might spark wider nationalist anti-Japanese protests.

“They learned a lot from the protests of 2005 … particularly about the risk of and danger of people protesting,” one Japanese official said.

That analysis suggests that the eventual release of Mr Zhan could mark the end of the incident. However, it has already set back efforts to resolve tensions created by the existence of large gas deposits in areas both sides claim as part of their exclusive economic zones.

While Beijing claims an exclusive economic zone based on its continental shelf – giving it rights over most of the area between it and the Japanese archipelago – Tokyo argues that the boundary should be set by the “median line” between the nations’ coasts.

中日两国签署旨在将东海转变为“和平友谊之海”的历史性天然气合作开发协议迄今已有两年，但两国间的这片海域如今看起来更像是冲突敌意之海。

就在日本对中国扩大海底天然气田开发并可能从其宣称拥有专属经济权的区域开采燃料的疑虑日渐增长之际，日本在有争议海域扣押中国渔船船长引起的日益扩大的冲突，有可能使执行2008年协议的努力偏离轨道。

中国已发出威胁，如果日方不立即释放渔船船长詹其雄，中方将采取“强烈反制措施”。与此同时，日本政府正在考虑，如果中方在两国“中线”附近有争议的春晓油气田扩大开采，自己可能采取何种措施。

尽管措辞严厉，但迄今为止，中国政府一直竭力阻止此次事件引发2005年在多个中国城市爆发的那种反日抗议。周末，北京的日本驻华大使馆周边警备森严，以防小规模的示威活动升级。

然而，如果詹其雄不能很快被释放，中国未来两周的数个公共假期有可能成为更大规模抗议活动的催化剂。尽管中国政府不想让此次事件破坏过去三年有所改善的中日关系，但它也希望避免指责其对日过于软弱的民意反弹。

尽管人们不要把中国的强硬言辞太当回事，但有关渔业区和气田的冲突凸显出中日对东海相互重叠的主张中内含的风险。

甚至在最近局势突然紧张之前，日本就对中国海军日益愿意展示其在该地区迅速壮大的“蓝水”作战能力越来越感到担忧。今年4月，一家中国直升机迫近到距离一艘日本驱逐舰90米的范围之内，导致了两国在外交上的互相指责。

但是最明显的引爆点集中于无人居住的钓鱼岛。该岛由日本控制，但中国宣称拥有其主权。中国政府将日本控制钓鱼岛视为日本军国主义侵略的遗迹，但日本政府辩称，自己对该岛在法律上拥有无可辩驳的主权。

在过去，双方一般都寻求避免讨论分歧，但詹其雄与日本海上保安厅之间的冲突让隐藏的紧张关系浮出了水面。

日方指责詹其雄撞击正试图迫使其离开这片盛产金枪鱼的海域的海上保安厅巡视船。日本检方正在考虑是否提出控罪。

日本海上保安厅过去显得畏手畏脚。例如在2008年钓鱼岛附近撞沉台湾渔船的事件中，它就自身的“过失”而道歉。台湾也宣称对钓鱼岛拥有主权。然而日本官员似乎相信，此次事件的责任在于詹其雄。日本海上保安厅拍下了此次事件的全过程。

日本外交官表示，中国政府似乎是在猜测，自己能够迫使日本迅速做出政治决断，这种押注在一定程度上是由于中方担忧，这次事件可能激发更大范围的民族主义反日游行。

一位日本官员表示：“他们从2005年的抗议中学到了很多……尤其是关于民众抗议的风险和危险。”

这种分析表明，詹其雄最终获释可能标志着事件的结束。然而，它已经影响了两国解决因丰富天然气储量导致的紧张关系的努力。中日双方都宣称该海域是自己专属经济区的一部分。

尽管中国政府根据其大陆架的自然延伸划定了属于中国的海上专属经济区（这让中方对中国与日本群岛之间的大部分区域拥有主权），但日本方面辩称，分界线应该根据两国海岸间的“中线”来划定。

译者/何黎