【英语国际】美国战后最长经济衰退于去年6月结束

The U.S. recession that wiped out 7.3 million jobs, cut 4.1% from economic output and cost Americans 21% of their net worth ended in June 2009, marking the longest and deepest slump since the Great Depression. But even as the end to the recession was officially called, a new report highlighted the weaknesses still facing the U.S. economy.

The country's economy has struggled to find its feet since that low point and still faces stubbornly high unemployment and slow growth.

The recession ended 18 months after the economy began sliding into a downturn in December 2007, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee, a group of academic economists that determines the widely accepted benchmarks for U.S. recessions.

The next-longest postwar slumps were those of the early 1970s and early 1980s, which both lasted 16 months.

The pronouncement comes as the economy shows signs it has avoided a slide back into another swoon. Stock-market investors have taken heart; the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied more than 7% this month, thanks to better-than-expected data on a number of fronts, including housing, manufacturing and unemployment. It rose 1.4% Monday to its highest close in four months.

The market's gains come after a bleak August, in which the Dow fell 4.3% as investors fretted that the economy would dip back into recession.

Still, the National Bureau of Economic Research warned that its call of an end to the recession didn't mean it had concluded 'that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity.'

The group said its determination did mean that 'any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007.'

While there are several short-hand definitions used by market participants to mark turns in the business cycle, the economists' group relies on a more complex formula. It frequently waits some time before making its determinations, as it seeks to use the most definitive data available.

造成就业岗位减少730万个、经济产出下降4.1%、美国人资产净值缩水21%的经济衰退于2009年6月份结束。这是大萧条以来为时最久、程度最深的一次衰退。但一份新出炉的报告在正式宣告经济衰退已经结束的同时，也让人看到了美国经济中仍旧存在的薄弱环节。

美国经济摆脱衰退、站稳脚跟是一个艰难的过程，它仍旧要面对居高不下的失业率和缓慢的经济增速。

据美国国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)商业周期测定委员会(Business Cycle Dating Committee)称，这次衰退从2007年12月开始，历时18个月后结束。商业周期测定委员会由一群学术型经济学家组成，所测定的经济衰退起始与终结时点被人们普遍接受。

战后时长仅次于这次的衰退是70年代早期、80年代早期的那两次，它们都持续了16个月之久。

衰退宣告结束之际，美国经济正显现出避开了二次探底的迹象。股市投资者信心满满；由于包括楼市、制造业和失业情况在内的一系列数据好于预期，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数本月以来已上涨7%有余。周一道指上涨1.4%，达到四个月以来的最高收盘水平。

此前的8月份则较为凄惨，由于投资者担心美国经济会再次滑入衰退，道指当月下跌了4.3%。

但商业周期测定委员会提醒说，宣告衰退结束，并不是说它得出了2009年6月份以来经济环境一直有利，或经济已经重新以正常产能运行的结论。

该委员会说，它做出的认定确实意味着，如果将来经济出现下滑，那将是一轮新的衰退，而不是2007年12月开始的那次衰退的延续。

市场人士使用了多种简便定义来确定经济周期中的拐点，而商业周期测定委员会所依赖的，则是一个更加复杂的公式。它经常要等待一段时间才做出认定，以便用到最为确定的数据。