【英语国际】数据或显示美国企业支出回升

The U.S. is eager to regain its balance by lessening its reliance on the consumer. That will be easier if business spending picks up.

So far, progress has been mixed.

Personal consumption as a share of gross domestic product has fallen to 70.5% from 71.1% in the third quarter of 2009. Meanwhile, business spending on equipment and software has risen to 7% after shriveling to 6.4% of GDP as of the second quarter of 2009, the lowest level since 1971.

Lately, there are concerns this rebound is losing momentum.

The Institute for Supply Management's index of U.S. manufacturing activity has dropped to 56.3 in August from 60.4 in April.

Even more troubling was the surprisingly large decline in a key gauge of business spending in July. Orders for capital goods excluding defense and aircraft sank nearly 8% from the prior month.

Yet the August figures, due Friday from the Commerce Department, could help dispel some angst. While durable-goods orders overall are expected to decline 1% from July on lesser demand for aircraft, the core capital-spending gauge is likely to post a small rebound.

With any luck, that could be the start of something bigger.

After all, companies have been holding back on capital expenditures. This spending was equal to just 51% of profits in the second quarter, compared with an average of 65% from 2000 through 2007, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

And while capital spending has picked up in recent quarters, it hasn't been booming.

Nomura Securities notes the total value of U.S. plant, equipment and machinery has shrunk for the first time in postwar history, falling 2% from its peak in mid-2008.

It isn't a lack of funds that has put a lid on spending so much as uncertainty over sales prospects. Indeed, corporate borrowing rates are at historic lows and cash levels near record highs. Yet fears of a double-dip recession have kept companies on the defensive.

That may be changing.

In the second quarter, capital spending finally began to outpace depreciation and maintenance costs after trailing them during the crisis.

It may take only a little light at the end of the tunnel to spur corporate finance chiefs to pick up the pace.

美国急于减轻对消费的依赖，以此恢复经济的平衡。如果企业支出增加，这就会更加容易一些。

到目前为止，情况喜忧参半。

AFP/Getty Images根据美国美林银行发布的数据，第二季度美国企业资本支出只占利润的51%，而2000年到2007年平均要占65%个人消费在国内生产总值(GDP)中的比重，已从2009年第三季度的71.1%下降到70.5%。与此同时，用于设备与软件的企业支出在2009年第二季度降至1971年来最低水平6.4%之后，目前已升至GDP的7%。

最近，有人担心这种回升正在失去惯性。

供应管理学会(Institute for Supply Management)的美国制造业活动指数，已从4月份的60.4降至56.3。

更让人心忧的，是7月份一项反映企业支出的关键指标出现了意外的大幅下降。剔除防务装备与航空器的资本财货订单指数，较前一个月差不多下降了8%。

但定于周五由美国商务部(Commerce Department)发布的8月份数据，或许有助于消除一部分担忧。虽然耐用品订单整体指数预计会因为航空器需求减弱而较7月份下降1%，但作为其中核心部分的资本财货订单指数却有可能出现小幅反弹。

要是运气好的话，这可能是某种更大反弹的开始。

毕竟企业界一直都在抑制资本支出。据美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)数据，第二季度这方面的开销只占利润的51%，而2000年到2007年平均要占65%。

另外，虽然近几个季度的资本支出有所回升，但并没有完全活跃起来。

野村证券(Nomura Securities)指出，美国工厂、设备和机器的总价值出现了战后历史上的第一次缩水，比2008年中期的峰值低2%。

企业舍不得支出，更多地不是因为差钱，而是因为销售收入前景难料。事实上，企业的借款成本正处在历史最低水平，其现金水平也接近于纪录高位。但由于担心经济二次探底，企业采取了只守不攻的策略。

事情或许正在起变化。

今年第二季度，资本支出终于开始超过折旧与维护成本的上升速度，而它在危机期间是落后于后者的。

或许只看到一丝曙光，公司的财务负责人们就会加快支出速度。