【英语国际】日本干预汇市令欧元受宠

The euro and the Japanese yen seem to have traded costumes Thursday: Instead of being a riskier investment, Europe's common currency is acting like a safe harbor amid the ruckus in the foreign exchange markets.

As devoted followers of Marketbeat know, investors tend to flock toward safe assets like Treasurys and the Japanese yen when they're anxious. The U.S. is considered the safest place to invest in the world (though that theory is facing its biggest test in years), while Japan is attractive because of its large current-account surplus.

This week has been different. The Japanese government surprised traders Wednesday by jumping into the currency markets to push down the value of the soaring yen - its first such move to aid Japanese exporters in six years. Investors are wondering how far this 'intervention' will go and where the yen will settle against the dollar and other currencies.

That uncertainty may be driving investors into the euro, says Alan Ruskin, an analyst at Deutsche Bank in New York. 'Today, the euro is strengthening, not because of improved euro fundamentals … but because it is viewed as a safety valve, as Japan and (other Asian countries) step up intervention, encouraging negative dollar sentiment to be expressed in the euro.'

Translation: Investors who ordinarily might buy the yen to bet against the dollar are using the euro instead.

As a result, the euro is up 0.6% against the dollar, just shy of $1.31, having fallen to $1.1876 at the height of Europe's debt crisis in early June. Europe's currency is also notching gains against the yen, sterling, Swiss franc and Australian dollar. While bond yields are sending off worrying signals about Ireland and Portugal, the euro seems to be focused on other things.

Ruskin points out that this sort of thing happened between 2005 and 2007, too, but there's a difference now. While the euro has been surprisingly resilient for months, its long-term outlook remains clouded, what with euro members Greece and Ireland still struggling under a mountain of debt while Germany's export-fueled economy making everyone else feel bad for themselves. With the 16-nation euro zone still so troubled, Ruskin figures the euro can't really climb that much past $1.35.

-By Neil Shah

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Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

欧元和日圆似乎是周四交易的主角：在外汇市场嘈杂之际，欧元充当着避险工具的角色，而不是风险较高的投资产品。

《市场脉动》（Marketbeat）专栏的忠实读者知道，投资者在焦虑的时候，通常会蜂拥买入美国国债和日圆等安全资产。人们认为美国是世界上最安全的投资目标（尽管这一理论面临着数年来最大的挑战），而日本有吸引力是因为其经常项目盈余庞大。

但本周情况就不一样了。周三日本政府干预汇市，打压不断上升的日圆汇率（这是六年来日本首次干预汇市，以扶助日本出口商），令交易员颇感意外。投资者想知道干预行动将走多远，并想知道日圆兑美元和其他货币处于何种汇率水平，日本政府才会收手。

德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）驻纽约分析师拉斯金（Alan Ruskin）说，正是这种不确定性可能推动了投资者交易欧元。他说，今天欧元走强，不是因为其基本面好转，……而是因为人们把它当作安全投资，由于日本和（亚洲其他国家）加速干预汇市，所以人们纷纷买入欧元卖出美元，来表达对美元的看空态度。

这可以解读为：那些通常可能买入日圆卖出美元的投资者，目前或许在买入欧元卖出美元。

由此而产生的结果是，欧元兑美元涨0.6%，至略低于1.31美元的水平，6月初在欧洲债务危机高峰时期欧元一度跌至1.1876美元。欧元兑日圆、英镑、瑞士法郎和澳元均微幅上涨。尽管国债收益率对爱尔兰和葡萄牙发出令人担心的信号，但欧元走势似乎在关注其他因素。

拉斯金指出，2005年至2007年也发生了此类情况，但这次有所不同。尽管几个月来欧元走势表现出惊人的韧性，但其长期前景依然阴云密布，因为欧元区成员国希腊和爱尔兰仍在巨额债务中挣扎，同时德国出口导向型经济让人们感觉相形见绌。拉斯金指出，由于欧元区16国处境如此艰难，欧元不会涨得太多，很难升逾1.35美元。