【英语国际】衰落的俄罗斯主动向欧洲靠拢

The severe blow dealt to Russia by the West's financial crisis is prompting a recalibration of Russia's foreign policy. Among the ideas now surfacing in Moscow: a much closer relationship between Russia and the European Union.

After years of rapid economic growth, Russia was hit hard by the crisis. Last year, its economy shrank by 7.9%. That put it in 206th place out of 213 countries in a comparison of 2009 growth rates, according to the Central Intelligence Agency.

'What became clear from the financial crisis is that Russia is not a sustainable BRIC,' said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, using the initials for Brazil, Russia, India and China coined in 2001 to identify fast-growing emerging economic powers. 'While the other BRICs kept on growing, Russia's economy contracted. This emphasized the limits of Russian power.'

The enthusiastic 'Russia is Back' slogans being bandied about two or three years ago have been replaced by growing fears of further decline. A draft report prepared by Russian members of the Valdai International Discussion Club, a group of academics and journalists who met over the past week in Russia, spelled out that fear.

Unless Russia and the EU join forces and develop a strategy for co-development, the report said, 'their international political influence will most likely be doomed to degradation.' Without that alliance, the report said Europe would turn into a 'monument to its old grandeur,' while Russia would risk becoming a raw-materials backyard for a rising Asia.

One strong motive for moving closer to Europe, say some analysts, is indeed fear of the Chinese economic powerhouse and what it will mean for Russia's increasingly sparsely populated lands. (United Nations projections suggest by 2050 there will be 116 million Russians and 1.4 billion Chinese, compared with 140 million Russians and 1.3 billion Chinese currently.)

At the Valdai conference, some Russians spoke of China and Asia as an alternative if Moscow is spurned by Europe. At a meeting with foreign members of the group, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin repeatedly emphasized his country has nothing to fear from China. However, some participants argued that Asia's future is very uncertain even five years out.

Others were fearful of what closer ties to China would mean. Greater economic integration with China was described by one Russian speaker as the 'union of a rabbit and a boa constrictor.' In this metaphor, Russia wasn't the boa constrictor.

Up to now, the EU's own regular meetings with Russia have achieved little: Mr. Leonard of the ECFR called it 'a Potemkin dialogue.' That's in part because the attitudes of the EU's 27 member states to Russia have been all over the place. Germany has usually been the country seeking the closest relations, while some new members states along with others such as the U.K. have been harboring greater suspicions about the Russian bear.

More recently, however, bilateral tensions have eased, notably with Poland. The past winter wasn't accompanied by threats that Russian gas supplies to Europe would be cut off; and there have been no repeats of the 2008 Georgia war or murders like that in London of Alexander Litvinenko. Russia stayed out of Kyrgyszstan's ethnic troubles this year, suggesting less of an appetite for military interventions in its near-abroad. President Dmitry Medvedev called earlier this year for an all-European security pact.

But there's still a huge gap between Europe and Russia. 'Russia's world view focuses more on power than on rules,' which largely guide the EU's behavior, Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, told the group.

One foreign participant, suggesting that Russia's enormous size meant it couldn't be integrated into the EU, cited what he said was a Chinese saying: 'Encourage the elephant to go into the refrigerator and close the door behind it.'

The Valdai report speaks of a 'values gap' between Russia and hints at Russia's impatience with lecturing from a pious EU. But the fact is, said many experts, the EU won't cozy up to an autocratic power with rampant government corruption, an arbitrary legal system, and scant regard for human rights. Moreover, the suspicion will remain among many in the EU that as soon as the oil price goes back up, Russia will start throwing its weight around again.

Some would like to test Russia's good faith before moving ahead. Germany has suggested Russia could help resolve the frozen conflict in Moldova, where the Russian-speaking population of Transdniester has broken away. Mr. Putin this week spoke of future 'cooperation' between Georgia's break-away regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and the Georgian government -- a vague statement that led some of his audience to suggest he may be hinting at a solution in which Georgia could remain whole.

Much closer union between Russia and the EU, however, appears to most experts to be a long way off. For one thing, the EU is still in the throes of a financial crisis that is likely to keep it absorbed and unwilling to embark on major new initiatives. And then there is Russia.

'The main obstacle to any union with Europe is that we are not ready,' said one Russian speaking at the conference under the usual rules of nonattribution. 'You can't combine an airplane and a steam engine.'

西方金融危机对俄罗斯造成的严重冲击促使俄罗斯对外交政策作出调整。现在俄罗斯国内出现了一种观点 :应该大力加强俄罗斯与欧盟之间的关系。

在经历了多年的经济迅速增长后，俄罗斯遭受到经济危机的重创。去年，俄罗斯的经济萎缩了7.9%。据美国中央情报局（Central Intelligence Agency）称，这使得俄罗斯在一项2009年增长率比较中名列213个国家中的第206位。

欧洲对外关系委员会（European Council on Foreign Relations）主任伦纳德（Mark Leonard）说，金融危机让我们清楚地看到，在金砖四国中，俄罗斯不是一个可持续发展的国家，尽管金砖四国中的其它国家继续保持经济增长，但俄罗斯的经济却萎缩了。这凸显了俄罗斯实力的局限性。“金砖四国”（BRIC）这个词出现于2001年，取自巴西口俄罗斯口印度和中国四个国家英文名称的首字母，用来表示快速增长的新兴经济力量。

两、三年前到处传扬的激情口号“俄罗斯回来了”已经被对于未来经济下滑日渐增长的恐惧所取代。瓦尔代国际辩论俱乐部（Valdai International Discussion Club，一个由学者和记者组成的团体）的成员上周在俄罗斯召开会议，他们撰写的一篇报告草案清楚地说明了这种恐惧。

这篇报告称，除非俄罗斯和欧盟协力合作，建立共同发展策略，否则“它们的国际政治影响力多半会下降。”这篇报告还称，如果不建立这种联盟，欧洲将变为旧日辉煌的纪念碑，而俄罗斯则面临着沦为日渐崛起的亚洲国家的原材料供应地的风险。

有些分析师称，俄罗斯向欧洲靠拢的一个强烈动机实际上是对中国这个经济强国，以及对俄罗斯人口日益稀少的威胁的恐惧。（联合国的预测显示，到2050年，俄罗斯的人口将为1.16亿，中国的人口将为14亿；与之相比，现在俄罗斯的人口为1.4亿，中国的人口为13亿。）

在瓦尔代国际辩论俱乐部的会议上，一些俄罗斯会员提出，如果俄罗斯被欧洲拒绝，那么中国和亚洲可以作为另一种选择。在会见该团体的外国成员时，俄罗斯总理普京（Vladimir Putin）反复强调，他的国家没有什么可惧怕中国的。然而，有些与会者认为，即使在五年内，亚洲的未来也是非常不确定的。

也有些人担心与中国走得更近的后果。一位俄罗斯发言人将与中国更紧密的经济一体化形容为“兔子与巨蟒的联盟”。在这个比喻中，俄罗斯可不是巨蟒。

迄今为止，欧盟与俄罗斯的定期会议收效甚微：欧洲对外关系委员会的伦纳德称其为“波将金式对话”（Potemkin dialogue。波将金是女皇叶卡捷琳娜二世的宠臣和亲信，据传他为取悦女皇而下令在她巡游经过处搭建外观悦目的假村庄，由此成为弄虚作假的代名词。）。部分原因是由于欧盟27个成员国对俄罗斯的态度不一。德国一般是希望与俄罗斯建立最密切关系的，而有些新成员国和英国等国家则对俄罗斯巨熊心存疑忌。

然而，最近俄罗斯的双边紧张关系，尤其是与波兰的关系得以缓解。去年冬天没有听到俄罗斯要切断对欧洲天然气供应的威胁，也没有重现2008年的格鲁吉亚战局或发生在伦敦的利特维年科（Alexander Litvinenko）谋杀案之类的事件。今年，俄罗斯没有插手吉尔吉斯斯坦的种族问题，这显示俄罗斯对武力干预近邻国家事务的兴趣减弱。今年早些时候，俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫（Dmitry Medvedev）呼吁签订全欧洲安全条约。

但欧洲和亚洲之间仍存在着巨大的鸿沟。欧洲改革中心（Centre for European Reform）的格兰特（Charles Grant）在会上表示：“俄罗斯的世界观对实力的关注多于对规则的关注”，这在很大程度上影响了欧盟的行为。

一位外国与会者表示，俄罗斯的庞大意味着它不可能融入欧盟。他说，有一句中国俗语是这样说的：“把大象赶入冰箱，然后把门关上。”

瓦尔代报告提到了俄罗斯的“价值观鸿沟”，并暗示俄罗斯没有耐心聆听高高在上的欧盟的训话。但许多专家说，事实是，欧盟不会和一个政府腐败猖獗、任意解释法律、罔顾人权的独裁势力套近乎。此外，许多欧盟国家仍然怀疑，一旦油价回升，俄罗斯就会重新开始仗势欺人。

有些人希望在做出进一步行动之前检验俄罗斯的诚意。德国建议俄罗斯帮助解决摩尔多瓦的僵持冲突，在这场冲突中，讲俄语的德涅斯特人宣布独立。本周，普京提到了宣布脱离格鲁吉亚的南奥塞梯（South Ossetia）和阿布哈兹（Abkhazia）地区与格鲁吉亚政府的未来“合作”──这一模糊表述使某些听者认为，他可能暗示了某种可以让格鲁吉亚保持领土完整的解决方案。

然而，在多数专家看来，俄罗斯与欧盟之间要想建立更加密切的联盟，还有很长一段路要走。一方面，欧盟仍然处在金融危机的阵痛期，这可能导致其只专心于自身事务，而不愿采取新的重大举措。此外，还有俄罗斯方面的问题。

一位俄罗斯人根据不归咎惯例在会议上发言说，与欧洲建立任何联盟的主要障碍在于，我们还没有准备好。你不能将一架飞机和一台蒸汽机组装到一起。