【英语国际】日本干预外汇市场之役成功了吗？

Let us now praise the intervention.

As of mid-day Thursday, the Ministry of Finance's first foray into currency markets in six-and-a-half years remains a success. The dollar seems safely stable above 85 yen, and the Nikkei comfortably above 9,000. It's been some time since the last such calm trading day in Tokyo.

Yes, yes, we know, we know: The impact is highly unlikely to last; it never does. It's a band-aid on a chronically ill economic body. Nobody outside Japan supports the move, and some allies have started to criticize it. (Watch closely for what Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner says during a congressional hearing during the U.S. day Thursday). It could undermine G-8 global currency strategies, especially if China cites the move as a reason to minimize the yuan's rise.

But let's set all that aside for a moment, and let the MOF-eaucracy enjoy its moment of glory. When is the last time any Japanese policy maker set out to do something, and seemed to accomplish it?

Back in the day, of course, Japanese bureaucrats could do no wrong. They were seen as wise and all-powerful, cleverly steering the nation's economy and industry to world dominance. That was in the 1980s, when the economy was growing rapidly and the Nikkei was heading to 40,000. (The yen was strengthening then, too--the result of the coordinated intervention of the Plaza Accord. Currency geeks, mark your calendars: The 25th anniversary for that historic pact is next Wednesday, Sept. 22.)

In recent years--especially over the past year of governance under the Democratic Policy of Japan--it seems policy successes have been conspicuous by their absence, to put it charitably.

Just take the past few weeks. The Bank of Japan did its bit to stabilize the yen with an emergency meeting Aug. 30, and the market impact barely lasted a few hours. Prime Minister Naoto Kan briefly promised bold action to fix Japan's fiscal mess with a tax hike, then backtracked after getting hammered at the polls. The bar for him was set so low, that it was considered a triumph Tuesday when he was allowed to hold onto his job for more than three months. We don't need to review Futenma. Or how a country could somehow lose thousands of centenarians.

So, Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda and your merry band of interventionists: take a bow! Party like it's 1989. At least until trading starts in Europe.

现在让我们赞美干预行动吧。

截至周四中午，日本财务省六年半来首次干预汇市依然是成功的，美元兑日圆似乎稳居于85日圆上方，日经指数轻松地保持于9,000点以上。距东京市场上次这么平静的一个交易日以来已有一段时间。
Reuters日本财务大臣野田佳彦
是的，我们知道：它的影响很可能不会持久，它从来就没持久过。干预行动是对长期疲弱的经济所采取的一项权宜之计。日本以外没人支持这一举动，一些同盟者开始批评这一作法。（请密切关注一下美国财长盖特纳（Timothy Geithner）于美国时间周四在国会听证会上的讲话）。日本干预汇市的举动可能将损害八国集团（G-8）的全球外汇策略，尤其在假如中国指称这一行动将导致其减少人民币升幅的情况下，更是如此。

但还是暂且把所有这一切放在一边，让财务省的官员们欢庆这荣耀的时刻吧。上次日本决策者开始着手做事、并看上去完成任务是在什么时候？

放在过去，当然日本官员不会有错。人们认为他们英明、全能、聪明地将日本经济和工业带入世界的领先地位。但这是上世纪80年代的事了，当时日本经济快速增长，日经指数升向40,000点大关。（当时日圆也在走强，这是《广场协议》（Plaza Accord）协调干预的结果。外汇买家们，在你们的日历上写下吧：下周三，9月22日是这一历史性协议签订25周年纪念日。）

最近几年，尤其是日本民主党执政的过去一年，政策明显成功似乎是因为他们什么也没有做，说得好听点是这样。

就拿过去几周为例吧，日本央行（Bank of Japan）在8月30日召开紧急会议，尽力稳定日圆汇率，但市场影响只持续了几小时。首相菅直人（Naoto Kan）简短地承诺将采取大胆行动，通过加税来摆脱日本财政窘境，但在民调中失利后，他又出尔反尔。给他设立的门槛很低，周二他在党内选举中获胜，可以把饭碗保持比三个月更久的时间，这对他来说就是重大胜利。我们还不用提普天间基地（Futenma）问题，以及日本如何一下子少了数千位百岁老人。

所以财务大臣野田佳彦（Yoshihiko Noda）和主张干预的一帮人，请鞠躬致谢吧！像1989年那时候一样尽情狂欢吧，至少在欧洲汇市开始交易前可以如此。