【英语国际】日本干预汇市的来龙去脉

The headlines took the finance world by storm Wednesday morning: 'Japan's finance ministry intervenes in the foreign exchange markets for the first time in six years'.

But what does that mean exactly? Below is a brief guide to the intricacies involved in Wednesday's yen intervention that has traders working in overdrive.

How does yen intervention happen?

Japan's Ministry of Finance decides the country's currency policy with the minister, in this case Yoshihiko Noda, giving the final green light. The ministry crafts the entire strategy including the timing of the intervention and at what levels to step in. Wednesday's intervention involves selling yen and buying U.S. dollars, a move which fattens its foreign reserves and increases the yen supply in the market, which dilutes the value of the yen.

What prompted the intervention?

The Japanese currency's inexorable surge against the dollar has threatened the country's export-reliant economy. The toll on the shares of exporters has driven the Nikkei down considerably this year, as the rising yen made Japanese products less competitive than those of its overseas competitors. The strong yen has also added to deflationary pressures. Market concern mounted around these effects in the last two weeks, and showed itself in full form when dollar dropped to a new 15-year low against the yen Wednesday. The MOF tends to act when it is believed the market has gained a fixed one-sided momentum, in which case the government swoops in from the other side to realign bets to ensure investors believe there's a two-way risk: In other words, it might no longer be as safe as it has been in recent months to keep buying yen.

How do you 'sterilize' intervention? And why would you want to leave it 'unsterilized'?

The finance ministry's intervention has in a sense tossed the ball into the central bank's court in that it is now up to the BOJ, the institution in charge of monetary policy, to decide whether to let all the new yen slosh around in the market, or to absorb the newly-injected supply and thereby 'sterilize' the intervention. The BOJ's traditional role is to try to keep the supply and demand scales in balance and carry this out by injecting or taking money out of the market. If the BOJ chooses to let the money be, the value of the yen will likely become cheaper against the dollar, a process known as 'unsterilizing' the market supply. And in this case, a cheaper yen is the objective of the MOF.

I still don't get it. Why is it a big deal?

It's a big deal because if Japan doesn't tame the strong yen, the impact on its big exporters could eventually mean reduced profits, reduced investment and ultimately threaten the country's economic recovery. That's why in a single day, Japan spent a trillion yen, or about $12 billion, in what will need to be a sustained effort if it's to be successful.

周三上午，“日本财务省六年来首次干预外汇市场”的消息席卷全球财经界。

Associated Press 一名东京外汇交易所的外汇交易员。但这条消息到底有何含义呢？周三的日圆汇率干预行动让交易员费劲解读，下文就对这次行动的来龙去脉做个简单介绍。

干预是怎样操作的？

日本的汇率政策由财务省决定，财务大臣最后拍板，这次拍板的财务大臣是野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)。财务省起草整个策略，包括干预的时机，以及在什么样的汇率水平入场。周三的干预涉及卖出日圆、买进美元，此举会让日本的外汇储备变得更多，并增加市场上的日圆供应，从而起到稀释日圆币值的作用。

为什么要干预？

日本的经济依赖于出口，日圆对美元不可动摇的升值趋势对它构成了威胁。今年以来，由于日圆升值削弱日本产品相对于海外竞争对手的竞争力，出口商股价受到了打击，拖累日经指数(Nikkei)大幅下降。日圆升值还增加了通货紧缩压力。过去两个星期，市场对这些效应的担忧越来越强烈，周三美元对日圆跌至新的15年低位时，这种担忧更是达到极至。财务省如果相信市场已经形成一种固定的单边趋势，往往就会采取行动。政府会从市场的另一个方向进来，重新调整市场的多空对比，确保投资者相信风险是双边的，也就是说，不断买进日圆的策略可能不再像近几个月那样安全。

怎样为干预“消毒”？不“消毒”更好，为什么？

从某种意义上讲，财务省的干预是把皮球踢给了负责货币政策的日本央行，让它来决定是让新投入的日圆继续在市场里流动，还是把这些资金吸走、从而为这场干预“消毒”。日本央行的传统角色，是力保货币供需平衡，具体执行办法是向市场注入资金，或者从市场回笼资金。如果日本央行让新注入的日圆留在市场，日圆相对于美元可能就会更加廉价，这个过程就是不对市场的货币供应“消毒”。在这次干预中，日圆贬值是财务省的目标。

还是不明白，为什么干预行动好像意义重大？

之所以意义重大是因为如果日本不驯化坚挺的日圆，那么大出口商受到的影响最终可能带来利润的下降、投资的减少，最后危及整个国家的经济复苏。正因为这个原因，日本一天就花了1万亿日圆，相当于120亿美元，而如果要取得成功，还需要不断地花钱。