【英语国际】日本干预汇市作了坏榜样

It's too early to say whether Japan's $12 billion move to tame its surging currency will succeed in protecting its export-based economy. But if it does, another problem pops up: Other Asian nations may use Japan's example to get bolder with their own market tinkering, devaluing their currencies to help their exporters at the expense of rivals in the U.S. and Europe.

As the U.S. trading session gets underway, Japan's Ministry of Finance and central bank are still winning Wednesday's war against the market. The yen is down over 3% against the dollar at 85.65 yen. Before Wednesday, the yen had gained well over 10% in recent months, hitting a 15-year high of 82.87 per dollar - a level that makes it harder for Japan's dominant export sector to sell goods abroad.

Japan's political elite are under pressure from business leaders to push the yen down. But businessmen and women in other Asian countries probably feel the same way, and could push their leaders into action, too. In a sign of such expectations, the dollar is also higher against other Asian currencies, including the South Korean won, Taiwan dollar and Singapore dollar.

Of course, countries like Singapore have a well-known habit of intervening in the market to adjust their exchange rates to benefit exporters. And China's yuan is still pretty much pegged to the U.S. dollar, though the country has made gestures toward a more free-floating policy recently. Lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives are actually debating Chinese currency policy Wednesday.

The U.S. and Europe have long considered China's policy - along with those in other Asian countries - as a de facto subsidy to national exporters. While we're not close to this yet, a bunch of moves by Japan and other Asian countries to play with their currencies could threaten international relations.

Japan's economy continues to suffer in the wake of the global financial crisis, so it's natural for policy makers there to grasp at straws to protect their own. But an outbreak of 'competitive devaluations' - countries racing to devalue their individual currencies - would lead to a collective mess.

周三日本以120亿美元干预汇市以抑制日圆升势，现在就说其能否成功地保护日本以出口为基础的经济还为时尚早，但如果成功了，另一问题也就接踵而至：其他亚洲国家可能照日本的样子，更大胆地调整自己的市场，在损害欧美竞争对手的情况下，使本币贬值，以帮助本国的出口商。

直到周三纽约汇市交易时段，日本财务省和日本央行的干预措施仍在击败市场，日圆兑美元下跌逾3%，至85.65日圆。周三前的几个月，日圆兑美元累计涨逾10%，一度触及15年高点82.87日圆，这一汇率水平很难使日本占主要地位的出口业在海外销售产品。

日本政治精英受到商界领袖要求其打压日圆的压力。但亚洲其他国家的商界人士可能也是这样感觉的，或许也会迫使本国领导人采取行动。由于出现了这一预期的迹象，美元兑韩圆、台币和新加坡元等亚洲其他货币亦上涨。

当然新加坡等国家以干预汇市、调整本币汇率以扶助出口业者闻名。尽管中国近期做出了更趋向弹性汇率机制的姿态，但人民币在相当大程度上依然在盯住美元。美国众议院（U.S. House of Representatives）的议员们周三实际上正在讨论中国的汇率政策。

欧美长期以来认为中国（和亚洲其他国家）的汇率政策实际上是对本国出口商的一种补贴，日本和亚洲其他国家大举干预汇市，可能将威胁国际关系，不过情况或许还没有这么糟糕。

在全球金融危机后，日本经济持续受创，所以决策者自然会努力抓住救命稻草以保护本国经济。但竞争性贬值（各国争先恐后地使本币贬值）的爆发，可能将使情况变得一团糟。