【英语国际】欧洲债务危机在爱尔兰复燃？

Ireland's troubled banking system became the latest flash point in Europe's continuing economic crisis, as the government said it would split up the weakest of its major banks to stave off a run by depositors.

Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan, days after meeting European Union officials, said state-owned Anglo Irish Bank Corp. would be divided into a government-backed bank that would hold customer deposits and an 'asset recovery bank' holding the bank's increasingly bad loans. The asset-recovery bank could be sold in whole or part down the road. Mr. Lenihan said the cost of the restructuring would be announced in October.

Ireland's renewed banking problems are sparking fears that the European Union's rescue of debt-laden Greece won't be its last. Earlier this year, the EU and the European Central Bank unveiled a raft of measures to stop the spiraling debt crisis in Greece from threatening the rest of the euro zone.

The Greek problems prompted a Europe-wide effort this year to purge banking fears by stress-testing the continent's 91 biggest banks, in a bid to replicate the U.S.'s 2009 success in restoring faith in its own banking system. But global markets fell Tuesday following a report in The Wall Street Journal questioning the rigor of the European stress tests.

Investors have begun to examine whether Europe's stress tests were credible, and are particularly worried about banks' holdings of government debt. Anglo Irish, the third-biggest bank in Ireland, wasn't included in the stress tests.

Nervous investors drove the price of financial insurance against an Irish government-bond default to a record Wednesday. Markets expressed relief after news of the decision to split the bank, with the price of the insurance then declining to $370,000 a year to insure $10 million of Irish bonds for five years, according to data provider Markit.

The premium Ireland pays over Germany, the euro-zone benchmark, to borrow from investors in the bond market fell significantly after the bailout news, but it remains near the highest level since the euro was introduced in 1999.

Markets got a lift Wednesday from another struggling European country, when Portugal sold more than a billion euros in bonds -- though the country was forced to pay sharply higher yields than it had recently.

Portugal's banking system is healthier than Ireland's, but its economy and its government finances remain weak, and it needs to continue to sell debt to investors. Portugal will pay annual interest of 4.086% on its three-year bonds, compared with 3.597% in June.

By contrast, Germany on Wednesday paid just 0.58% annual interest to borrow for two years.

The Irish government's move shows how problems in its country's banks -- which had grown rapidly in the boom years, fueled in large part by aggressive real-estate lending -- will be difficult to unwind, threatening Ireland's economy and the government in the process.

Wednesday's move is Ireland's latest attempt to quash fears about the banking woes, which in turn threaten to destroy confidence in the government's own finances.

The country has already spent well more than the equivalent of 20% of a year's gross domestic product rescuing its banks. On Tuesday, officials said they would extend certain government guarantees for banks that were set to expire this month.

Until recently, Ireland was thought to be on course in tackling its financial problems, thanks to an aggressive program of spending cuts to reduce its budget deficit, the worst in the euro zone.

But Anglo Irish Bank recently reported figures that showed deposits had fallen over the first half of the year. Hence the worry among Irish officials and the need to act.

As Ireland's problems have persisted, its credibility with investors has eroded. The country now is serving as a cautionary tale for other indebted European economies on how difficult the road to recovery may be, even if they tackle out-of-control spending.

'It's a big hangover,' said Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Bloxham, Ireland's biggest independent stockbroker. 'Ireland is juggling too many balls at once, and the market thinks that they're going to drop one of them.'

Ireland's banks pose the biggest threat to the nation's recovery from a huge real-estate bust. At the height of the boom in early 2008, Ireland's construction sector fueled roughly 25% of its GDP.

To support that boom, Ireland's banks supplied huge amounts of cheap credit to property developers and home buyers alike. By 2008, Irish households were carrying debts that represented roughly 175% of their disposable income, even higher than the U.S.'s 145%, according to Goodbody Stockbrokers.

The Irish government's move on Wednesday, which was applauded by Anglo Irish Bank and the EU, soothed some of the fears. Investors remain concerned, however, given that the final cost of dealing with Anglo Irish is unclear.

'It's a small first step,' said Dermot O'Leary, chief economist at Goodbody Stockbrokers in Dublin. 'The wider issue is how much Anglo Irish is going to cost.'

Ireland's problems go beyond its banks.

A significant slowing in the global economic recovery could hurt economic prospects for Ireland more than other countries in Europe.

While Ireland's economy steamed ahead in the first quarter, it is heavily reliant on exports, which fuel 50% of its GDP. If economic growth slows in the U.S. and Germany, Ireland could feel the pain. Ireland's banks, meanwhile, remain in a weak position to lend.

尔兰令人担心的金融系统成为欧洲持续经济危机中一个最新导火索，爱尔兰政府表示，将对其几大银行中实力最弱的一个进行拆分，以防储户挤兑。

爱尔兰财政部长勒尼汉(Brian Lenihan)会见欧盟官员数日后表示，国有盎格鲁爱尔兰银行(Anglo Irish Bank Corp.)将被拆分成两个银行，一个受政府支持并持有客户储蓄，另一个则为“资产追回银行”，持有盎格鲁银行不断增长的不良贷款。后者可能会在长期内被全部或部分出售。勒尼汉说，盎格鲁爱尔兰银行的重组成本将在10月公布。

爱尔兰死灰复燃的银行业问题使人们开始担心，欧盟对债务累累的希腊的出手相救到底是不是最后一次。今年早些时候，欧盟与欧洲中央银行(European Central Bank)出台了一系列举措，防止希腊螺旋式升级的债务危机威胁到其它欧元区国家。

希腊债务危机的出现促使欧洲各国为消除银行业的惧怕而在今年对欧洲大陆91个大型银行进行了压力测试，此举旨在复制美国2009年成功恢复其金融系统信心的方法。但是当《华尔街日报》刊文对欧洲银行压力测试的严密性表示质疑之后，全球股市周二出现普跌。

投资者开始调查欧洲压力测试是否可靠，尤其对持有政府债券的银行表示担心。盎格鲁爱尔兰银行是爱尔兰第三大银行，不在压力测试的名单之列。

紧张的投资者周三推高了爱尔兰政府债券违约担保价格，达到创纪录的新高。伦敦市场研究公司Markit表示，市场在听到拆分银行的决定后松了一口气，五年期1000万美元爱尔兰国债违约担保价格随之降到每年37万美元。

拆分银行的消息传出后，爱尔兰从债券市场投资者那里借贷的成本溢价，相对于作为欧元区基准的德国来说，大幅降低，但是仍旧处于1999年实行欧元货币以来的最高水平。

周三，市场受到葡萄牙出售超过10亿欧元国债的提振。这是另外一个苦苦挣扎的欧洲国家，虽然此次国债出售迫使葡萄牙不得不支付远高于其近期发行时的国债收益。

葡萄牙的银行业系统较之爱尔兰更为健康，但是葡萄牙的经济和政府财政依旧比较疲弱，需要继续向投资者出售国债。葡萄牙三年期国债的年利率将到达4.086%，而6月只有3.597%。

相比之下，周三德国为其两年期国债只支付了0.58%的年利率。

繁荣年代，很大程度上得益于激进的房地产贷款活动，爱尔兰银行业增长迅速。爱尔兰政府分拆盎格鲁爱尔兰银行之举，正说明了化解银行业积弊的难度之大，而在这一过程中，爱尔兰的经济及其政府财政都面临着威胁。

银行业危机有可能使人们对政府自身的财政丧失信心，周三的分拆之举，是爱尔兰政府打消这方面担忧的最新尝试。

爱尔兰援助银行的资金已经远超年度国内生产总值(GDP)的20%。政府为银行提供担保的部分措施将于本月到期，官员们周二说，他们将延长其时限。

过去人们以为，由于实施了一个大力削减开支的计划来降低其欧元区最严重的预算赤字，爱尔兰财政问题正在逐步得到解决。

但盎格鲁爱尔兰银行最近报告的数据显示存款数额已在上半年下降。这引起了爱尔兰政府的担忧，并使采取应对行动成为必需。

由于爱尔兰的问题一直得不到解决，它在投资者当中的信用已经恶化。爱尔兰现在的情况对欧洲其他负债经济体来说是一个预警，告诉它们，即便化解了开支失控的问题，复苏之路仍有可能是异常艰难。

爱尔兰最大独立股票经纪商Bloxham首席经济学家麦奎德(Alan McQuaid)说，这是一个很大的遗留问题，爱尔兰一下子玩了太多的杂耍球，市场觉得其中一个将会掉落在地。

在爱尔兰试图摆脱房地产泡沫破灭留下的深重泥潭的过程中，银行业的问题是最大的隐患。在2008年年初形势最好的时候，爱尔兰的建筑行业贡献约占其GDP的25%。

为了支撑这种繁荣，爱尔兰银行业为开发商和购房者提供了巨量廉价信贷。都柏林券商Goodbody Stockbrokers数据显示，到2008年，爱尔兰家庭的负债水平大约相当于可支配收入的175%，比美国的145%都还要高。

爱尔兰政府的分拆措施受到盎格鲁爱尔兰银行和欧盟的欢迎，并且平息了部分担忧。但由于处置盎格鲁爱尔兰银行的最终成本尚不确定，投资者仍旧心存顾虑。

Goodbody Stockbrokers首席经济学家奥拉里(Dermot O'Leary)说，这是一个小小的第一步；更大的问题在于（分拆）盎格鲁爱尔兰银行将会带来多高的成本。

爱尔兰的问题并不仅限于银行。

如果全球经济复苏出现明显放缓，那么爱尔兰经济前景受到的损害有可能超出欧洲其他国家。

虽然爱尔兰第一季度的经济奋起直追，但它却是严重依赖于出口，出口在GDP中的比重达到50%。若美国和德国经济增长放缓，爱尔兰可能受到波及。与此同时，爱尔兰银行业的状况仍不利于发放贷款。