【英语国际】分析：中日关系再度面临考验

A year after Japan’s Democratic party won power vowing to work for a “relationship of trust” with China, debate over Beijing’s recent purchases of Japanese government debt has underscored the long-standing mutual doubts between east Asia’s leading powers.

Speaking to a Diet committee on Thursday, Yoshihiko Noda, Japan’s finance minister, noted with disapproval that Tokyo was still unable to buy Chinese state debt. He wanted Beijing policymakers responsible for recent JGB purchases to “clarify their objectives”.

There have been other recent Sino-Japanese sour notes. Just last month, Beijing appeared coolly dismissive of complaints from Katsuya Okada, Japan’s foreign minister, about the obstacles Japanese companies face doing business in China and a new Chinese rare earth export regime.

And this week Beijing “strongly protested” against Japan’s arrest of the captain of a Chinese fishing boat involved in collisions with coast guard patrol vessels near a contested island group in the East China Sea.

On Thursday the Chinese foreign ministry said Tokyo could “hurt the broader interests of China-Japan relations” if it did not handle the dispute property.

There was a small demonstration outside the Japanese embassy in Beijing on Wednesday and some Chinese newspapers denounced Japan in strong terms. Its “irresponsible moves may eventually set fire to the Sino-Japanese relationship, or even force a military showdown”, warned an editorial in the Global Times.

There is always the risk of public opinion in China becoming inflamed, but among Chinese officials there is little desire to return to the highly charged atmosphere of 2005, when anti-Japanese protests swept Chinese cities.

Not only are the economic ties between the two countries extensive, but improved ties with Japan are central to Chinese aspirations for a larger leadership role in Asia.

In many sectors, Sino- Japanese ties are pleasantly temperate compared with the deep diplomatic chill that marked diplomatic relations for much of the past decade.

In May, China agreed to restart long-stalled formal talks with Japan on a treaty to allow joint development of gas resources in disputed areas of the East China Sea.

DPJ government leaders are much more sensitive to remaining Chinese bitterness over Japan’s 1931-45 invasion than were their predecessors from the long-ruling Liberal Democratic party.

In a signal of the potential for wider co-operation, Sadako Ogata, president of the Japan International Co-operation Agency, said this week that, since the transformation of China from aid recipient to global economic player, “the two countries are moving closer together to help developing countries”.

Better political ties could depend in part on whether China is seen to be doing more to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme – a central diplomatic goal of Tokyo – and whether Japan can establish more stable government leadership.

Beijing will be watching closely to see whether Naoto Kan, Japan’s prime minister, can survive a challenge from DPJ heavyweight Ichiro Ozawa.

The more internationalist Mr Ozawa has cultivated personal ties with Chinese Communist party counterparts and played a key role in Tokyo’s decision last year to allow Chinese heir apparent Xi Jinping an imperial audience.

Victory for Mr Ozawa in a DPJ leadership election set for Tuesday would not spell the end of mutual suspicions. The political veteran has warned that China’s attempt to match communism and market economics could prove futile – and has cited China as the biggest worry faced by the US- Japan alliance.

日本民主党在一年前赢得大选上台时，曾誓言要努力与中国建立一种“信任关系”，而现在，围绕中国近期购买日本国债引发的辩论，突显出这两个东亚强国之间长期存在的相互怀疑。

日本财务大臣野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)周四在对一个议会委员会发表讲话时，以不赞同的语气指出，日本方面仍无法购买中国国债。他希望负责近期日本国债购买的中国政策制定者“澄清其目标”。

近来中日关系中还存在其它刺耳音符。就在上月，日本外务大臣冈田克也(Katsuya Okada)抱怨日本企业在中国开展经营所面对的障碍，以及中国新的稀土出口制度，但北京方面对此似乎淡然不屑一顾。

而本周，中国“强烈抗议”日本逮捕一艘中国渔船的船长，这艘渔船在东海一处有争议的岛屿附近海域与日本海上保安厅巡视船发生了碰撞。

中国外交部周四表示，如果日方对这一纠纷处理不当，那就可能“对中日关系大局造成严重冲击”。

周三，中国抗议者在日本驻北京大使馆外举行了一场小规模示威，还有一些中国报纸以强硬措辞谴责日本。《环球时报》的一篇社评警告，日方不负责任的行为，最终可能点燃烧伤中日关系的火焰，甚至逼两国军事摊牌。

中国民意被激怒的风险始终是存在的，但在中国官员中，很少有人愿意看到2005年高度紧张的气氛卷土重来，当时中国有多个城市爆发了反日抗议。

中日两国之间不仅存在千丝万缕的经贸联系，对于中国在亚洲扮演更大领导角色的抱负来说，改善对日关系也处在中心地位。

可喜的是，中日关系在许多领域都风平浪静，与两国外交的超低温形成对比。在过去10年的大部分时间，这种严寒都是中日外交关系的主要特征。

今年5月，中国同意与日本重启搁置已久的正式谈判，以期达成两国在东海有争议海域联合开发天然气资源的协定。

对于1931年至1945年的日本侵华战争，中国方面至今仍抱有深仇大恨，对此，日本民主党政府领导人比曾经长期执政的自民党敏感得多。

日本国际协力机构(Japan International Co-operation Agency)理事长绪方贞子(Sadako Ogata)本周表示，自中国从受援国转变为全球经济强国以来，“两国在帮助发展中国家方面走得越来越近”。这是一个日中有更广泛合作潜力的信号。

两国政治关系的改善，在一定程度上可能有赖于中国在世人眼里是否正在采取更多行动，叫停朝鲜的核武计划（这是日本的核心外交目标），以及日本能否建立更为稳定的政府领导层。

北京方面将密切关注日本首相菅直人(Naoto Kan)能否击败党内重量级人物小泽一郎(Ichiro Ozawa)的挑战而继续主政。

更具国际主义观念的小泽一郎与中国共产党高官建立了私人关系。去年中国既定的下届领导人习近平得以会晤日本天皇，小泽发挥了关键作用。

小泽一郎在定于下周二举行的民主党党魁选举中获胜，并不意味着日中之间将不再相互猜疑。这名政坛元老警告称，中国将共产主义理论与市场经济相结合的尝试可能是徒劳的，他还指出，中国是美日同盟面对的最大忧虑。

译者/和风