【英语国际】欧洲债务危机结束了吗？

Is the worst of Europe's debt crisis over? Or is there more pain coming? Markets aren't giving a straight answer.

Investors seem to have regained their confidence in the euro: Europe's common currency has largely stabilized at around $1.27 per dollar, after falling to a four-year low of $1.1876 in early June. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index, meanwhile, has only lost 1% this year, with German stocks dropping a paltry 0.5%. The Dow, by contrast, is down 4% in the year to date.

This may reflect shifting attitudes about the world's economic prospects. Japan is in the doldrums. Worries about the U.S. economy are mounting. And yet Germany, Europe's biggest economy, saw its fastest rate of growth in 20 years in the second quarter. A recent survey suggests the 16-member euro zone's recovery continued in August. (The bloc expanded at an annualized 3.9% rate in the second quarter, compared with the U.S.'s 1.6% rate.). And as the WSJ's Brian Blackstone notes Tuesday, Italian bank UniCredit is actually revising its third-quarter GDP estimate for the euro bloc higher, not lower.

At the same time, other parts of the European financial architecture are flashing red, signaling more trouble to come for the highly-indebted countries on Europe's periphery. A key index showing the cost of insuring government bonds from Western European countries saw its worst monthly performance since it began trading about a year ago. Renewed fears about Ireland's banks and Greece's economy have pushed their credit-default swaps closer toward record levels. (Investors buy these swaps to protect themselves against government defaults.) It now costs about $350,000 a year to insure $10 million of Irish government bonds against default for five years, according to data provider Markit, compared with less than $200,000 on Aug. 3, a jump of 75%. The record for Ireland is something close to $400,000.

So, how will these conflicting signals be resolved? Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman figure that the euro is headed for a serious fall. Like the U.S., the euro zone may see its growth slow significantly later this year, especially if weaker Asian demand takes steam away from German exports. Weak growth in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain are likely to drag down Europe's overall output, making the euro less attractive. But the counter-argument is that investors largely know what they're dealing with now when it comes to Europe. Credit markets are already 'pricing in' a Greek debt default and more pain for Ireland, whether rightly or wrongly. And what's driven bond market spreads wider in August has been worries about the U.S. - not just Europe.

A lot depends on the U.S. economy's ability to keep chugging along. If the recovery continues at a reasonable pace, the euro zone - especially countries closely tied to the U.S. through trade like Ireland - could actually benefit by comparison. But if t he U.S. slides back into the doldrums, Europe's recovery could be hindered, putting the likes of Ireland and Greece in jeopardy.

洲债务危机是否已度过最糟糕阶段？未来还会出现更为严峻的考验吗？市场没有给出直接答案。

投资者似乎恢复了对欧元的信心：欧元兑美元在6月初跌至四年最低点后，一直主要稳定在1.27美元左右。与此同时，泛欧洲地区斯托克指数(pan-European STOXX 600 Index)今年仅下滑1%，德国股市微跌0.5%。相比之下，到目前为止，道指(Dow)今年累计下跌4%。

这可能体现出人们对世界经济前景态度的转变。日本经济毫无生气，美国经济的忧虑情绪与日俱增，而欧洲最大经济体德国，第二季度经济增长率创20年最高。最近一份调查显示，拥有16个成员国的欧元区其经济在8月继续回温。(欧盟第二季度年增长率达3.9%，而美国只有1.6%。)《华尔街日报》记者布莱克斯通(Brian Blackstone)周二指出，意大利联合信贷银行(UniCredit)实际上正在将其欧元区第三季度国内生产总值(GDP)预测调高，而不是调低。

同时，欧盟其它各国却正在亮红灯，预示着欧洲外围高负债国家将遭遇更多的麻烦。一项显示西欧国家投保政府债券成本的关键指标出现了自约一年前交易开始以来的最糟糕月度表现。人们对爱尔兰银行和希腊经济的再度担心使这两个国家的信用违约掉期价格逼近历史最高水平。(投资者购买掉期合约以保护自己免受政府违约带来的损失。)据伦敦市场研究公司(Markit)数据显示，为抵御五年违约风险，现在每年为1,000万美元的爱尔兰政府债券投保要花费约35万美元，相比8月3日不到20万美元的投保成本，涨幅高达75%。爱尔兰政府债券投保的最高成本接近40万美元。

如何破译这些自相矛盾的信号呢？布朗兄弟哈利曼(Brown Brothers Harriman)公司分析师认为，欧元将遭遇大跌。跟美国一样，欧元区今年下半年的经济增速可能明显放缓，尤其是考虑到如果进一步走弱的亚洲需求消弱德国出口。希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和西班牙经济增长疲软，可能会拖累欧洲整体增长，使欧元的吸引力进一步减小。但是持相反观点的人认为，一说到欧洲，投资者大部分都清楚自己在跟谁做买卖。无论公正与否，信贷市场已开始将希腊债务违约和爱尔兰的更多麻烦在制定掉期合约价格时考虑在内。8月债券息差规模扩大的原因是人们对美国的担忧，而不只是对欧洲的忧虑。

谜底主要依赖于美国经济保持增长的能力。如果美国经济复苏继续保持合理步伐，欧元区特别是爱尔兰等与美国有较密切贸易往来的国家，实际上可以从中获益。但如果美国经济再度停滞不前，就有可能阻碍欧洲复苏，爱尔兰和希腊等国也会因此面临风险。